The Impact Lending Team

Rob Blair NMLS 177611, LO for the largest Impact Mortgage Lender in the world- Movement Mortgage! We build alliances with those who have the same servant heart.

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

The main reason mortgage rates are 1.25% lower than they were a year ago (6% vs. 7.25%) isn't because of lower bond yields.

It's mostly due to the spread, which is finally back in "normal" range around 180 bps above the 10-year yield, after several years of being bloated and widening to around 325 bps at one point.

Historically, it's been about 170 bps so we are basically back to those levels and further improvement might be elusive (outside of another round of QE).

Most forecasts call for flat bond yields for the foreseeable future so if that turns out to be true and spreads are already normal, how else do you get even lower mortgage rates?

The only way would be direct intervention...

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

@GloPan Government should have never been in the business of student loans. One of the main reasons tuition is so high. Very shortsighted - saying that this is crushing dreams. Student loans are like a financial STD. You can never get rid of them.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Jerome Powell: We’re not certain about a December rate cut.

The market:

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

2:30pm

[boredjesse @boredjesse]

@WatcherGuru Whenever Jerome Powell goes on stage to speak:

[The Coastal Journal @1CoastalJournal]

🚨BREAKING: FED “NOT QE 💵🖨️

The Fed bought $14.8 billion worth of 10 year bonds today.

This is on top of the $20 Billion it bought yesterday.

That’s $34.8 Billion in 2 days.

“NOT QE”

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

HOMEBUYER 🏡 CHANGE SINCE 2015 VIZUALIZATION

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

With the aftermath of the CA fires, what do you think is going to happen to insurance rates for the rest of the country? Will other states be impacted as insurance companies reevaluate their future risk?

[Uncle Milty’s Ghost @his_eminence_j]

Talked to a neighbor last night who does mortgage origination as an independent business but is about to retire.

She said she did 9 total loans this year when normally she does 9-12 a month, and agrees with the statistics of this being the worst housing market slump since the 90s.

Her words: “WAY slower than 2008.”

[Amy Nixon @texasrunnerDFW]

Car Insurance was up 12.7% on November’s CPI report

Eggs were up 8%

Can we agree that CPI is a junk measurement of price stability?

It’s not price stability when every month is a whack-a-mole game of which item is going to randomly pop up and scare your budget this time

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

It could be a very pivotal week for mortgage rates and it all has to do with JOBS.

Tuesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Wednesday: ADP National Employment Report
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Employment Situation

Buckle up.

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have just increased their appraisal waiver programs from 80% to 90% LTV/TLTV.

This means more home buyers will be able to put just 10% down and avoid the expense and waiting period of a traditional appraisal.

These waivers allow lenders to underwrite loans without an appraisal, using historical data and public records instead.

In addition, the pair's more robust inspection-based appraisal waivers will allow LTVs as high as 97%, meaning just 3% down w/o an appraisal.

Freddie Mac says the move will help lower-income borrowers, including many first-time homebuyers.

Fannie Mae says, "Responsibly increasing the eligibility for valuation options that leverage data- and technology-driven approaches can also help reduce costs for borrowers."

The changes are expected to go live in Q1 2025.

To date, Freddie Mac’s ACE waivers have saved borrowers more than $1.63B in appraisal fees, while Fannie Mae's appraisal alternatives have saved more than $2.5B.

Perhaps not good news for appraisers. But faster, cheaper, and easier closings for home buyers.

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

Arguably, the 30-yr fixed had already fallen from 8% to 6% before the Fed cut.

In the span of less than one year.

So a HUGE move was already baked in thanks to the expectation of a slowing economy and more accommodative Fed.

In hindsight, the bounce higher post Fed rate cut should have been expected.

Imagine if the jobs report was garbage a week ago. Where would rates be today?

Ultimately, this move higher will likely be short-lived as rates continue their ongoing descent.

When that resumes will depend on the economic data that is released, not on Fed announcements.

It could happen as soon as tomorrow with CPI, or take longer if the reports don’t signal slowing economic growth.

But the bigger picture is that we entered a falling rate environment, even if there are some hiccups along the way.

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

Actual footage of mortgage underwriting in 2006.

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

Jobs numbers are bullshit. The age range with largest growth was 16-19 year olds. So high schoolers are working full time jobs now?

[John Downs @AdvisorJohn]

“Trigger Leads are so awesome” said no one ever…

Sent to me from a client we are refinancing. Literally the minute credit was pulled, the calls began.

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

Waiting for interest rates to drop? That’s kinda like waiting for Seattle to have a week without rain… it might happen, but are you really gonna risk missing out on the sunshine while you wait? ☀️🏡 #InterestRates #BuyTheHouse

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

Wow, who could have predicted this? Interest rates drop, and suddenly everyone’s making offers like it’s Black Friday. Over asking price, you say? Shocking. If only someone had mentioned that lower rates + low inventory = bidding wars… 🙄 #TotallyUnexpected #MarketMadness

[The Impact Lending Team @impactlender]

@TicTocTick Ummm… Where exactly are home prices gonna fall 30%?

[Geoff Black @SactoGeoff]

-50

And now we get to explain to everyone why mortgage rates didn't go down by .5%