MLB POTD #3 | (8/2) ⚾️
Zack Wheeler "O" 7.5 K's 🎯
We're backing Zack Wheeler tonight. His swing-and-miss rate against his current arsenal is sitting at 15.3%, a strong number that supports missing bats at a real clip. The model projects him for 10.35 Ks against this 7.5 line, nearly 3 full strikeouts of separation, one of the cleanest gaps on the slate. 📈
Recent form has been excellent: 🔥
• Cleared this line in 6 of his last 10 starts
• Averaging 8.6 Ks over his last 5
• Averaging 6.9 Ks over his last 15
Workload profile: 💪
• 10.53 K/9 for the season, one of the best marks in the league
• 16 starts, 100.0 innings this season, a full-season workload
His underlying profile continues to support the strikeout upside: 📊
• 0.880 WHIP on the season, elite
• .186 opponent batting average
• 3.08 FIP against a 2.16 ERA, both marks pointing to a pitcher performing at an ace level
What stands out in this play is the combination of an elite whiff rate and a real recent surge, his last five starts have been the best stretch of his season. That's exactly the kind of setup the model looks for. ✅
Use Metrix for FREE Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23dT0U
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Braxton Ashcraft - 7+ Ks
Braxton Ashcraft has been one of the more reliable swing-and-miss arms in recent weeks.
His K/9 sits at 9.96, comfortably above the qualified league average near 8.68, and his 27.3% strikeout rate clears the 22.8% norm by a wide margin. His 2.84 FIP actually beats his already-strong 3.07 ERA, meaning the underlying performance is real, not propped up by sequencing.
He's cleared 6.5 strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts, including double-digit K games against Minnesota and Seattle.
Today's opponent, the Phillies, carry a team strikeout rate of 24.0%, modestly above league average, giving this matchup a real tailwind on top of his own form.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23eqQs
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Miles Mikolas - Under 2.5 Ks
Miles Mikolas is the most extreme case of the three. His K/9 of 5.12 and 13.46% strikeout rate are both well below league norms, and his 5.85% swinging-strike rate is roughly half the league average of 11.1%, about as clear a sign of contact-oriented stuff as exists in this pool.
A 5.32 FIP essentially matching his 5.24 ERA confirms there's no defensive or sequencing benefit hiding underneath.
He's failed to reach even 3 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts, and the Red Sox, today's opponent, are actually a slightly below-average strikeout team (22.5%). With a 2.5 line, this projection is almost entirely about how rarely Mikolas misses bats, not about today's matchup specifically.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23dT0U
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Eric Lauer - Under 4.5 Ks
Eric Lauer projects well under his line today, and the season-long profile explains why. His K/9 is 5.85, well below the 8.68 league average, and his 7.34% swinging-strike rate sits far under the 11.1% norm, a clear sign hitters aren't missing his pitches at a typical clip.
His 6.18 FIP is actually worse than his 4.87 ERA, meaning there's no hidden run-prevention skill making up for the modest strikeout numbers.
The Athletics' team strikeout rate (22.7%) is right around league average, so this isn't a case of facing a particularly weak-hitting lineup. It's Lauer's own diminished stuff doing the work.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23dT0U
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Yordan Alvarez - 1+ Homerun
Yordan Alvarez's barrel rate sits at 18%, more than double the qualified league average near 7.8%, and his 53% hard-hit rate clears the 38.4% league norm by a wide margin. A 1.039 OPS and .613 SLG put him well above league-average marks (.387 SLG), and his 94.34 mph average exit velocity is among the hardest contact in this player pool.
Zebby Matthews is the real driver on the pitching side. His 1.82 HR9 is well above the 1.10 league average, and his 40.9% flyball rate combined with a .253 BAA shows he's already allowing a fair share of authoritative contact this season, only 8 starts and 49.1 innings into his workload, so treat the sample as real but still developing rather than a fully proven, season-long weakness. His 4.95 FIP is a notch worse than his already-shaky 4.56 ERA, meaning the surface number isn't getting a sequencing boost.
One homer in his last 10 games is a quieter recent pace than his season-long power numbers would suggest, but that's consistent with a hitter generating this much hard contact going through a stretch where the results haven't fully caught up yet.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23eqQs
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Pete Alonso - 1+ Homerun
Pete Alonso's barrel rate sits at 12%, well above the qualified league average near 7.8%, and his 54% hard-hit rate clears the 38.4% league norm comfortably. A .478 SLG and .820 OPS put him above league-average marks (.387 SLG), and a 94.16 mph average exit velocity confirms genuinely hard contact, not just a favorable home run total propped up by luck.
Sean Burke doesn't add much on the other side of this matchup. His HR9 of 1.13 sits right at the 1.10 league average, essentially a neutral read rather than a real weakness to exploit. His flyball rate is notably elevated at 52.3%, which does mean more balls in the air for a power hitter like Alonso to do damage on, even without Burke being a clear homer-prone arm specifically. His 3.99 FIP roughly matches his 3.71 ERA, suggesting a solidly performing starter overall.
Alonso's gone deep three times in his last 10 games, a hot recent stretch that lines up with his season-long power numbers. The case here leans heavily on his own bat rather than a pitcher with an obvious vulnerability, with Burke's high flyball rate as the one real point in the matchup's favor.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23eqQs
#Gambling𝕏
MLB Player Props - June 29th
Manny Machado - 1+ Homerun
Manny Machado's season-long batting line is modest overall, a .664 OPS and .192 BABIP that reflect a genuinely cold offensive stretch. The power specifically tells a different story lately: he's gone deep 3 times in his last 10 games, and his underlying contact quality backs that up, a 43% hard-hit rate above the 38.4% league average and a 90.1 mph average exit velocity that's solid, if not elite.
Shota Imanaga is the clearer driver here. His HR9 of 1.96 is well above the 1.10 league average, and his 4.87 FIP sits a touch worse than his already-shaky 4.40 ERA, meaning the home run issue isn't a fluke being masked by good run prevention elsewhere. The right-on-left matchup also favors Machado, a same-side platoon disadvantage doesn't apply here since Imanaga throws left-handed against the right-handed Machado.
The honest read: this isn't a case of a hitter in full form carrying the day. It's a hitter whose power has stayed live even through a broader slump, lined up against a pitcher with a real, current home run problem.
Use Metrix for Player Prop Help:
https://t.co/APfK23dT0U
#Gambling𝕏