throat champion

science first🙏🙏block=L

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@MsSummerblossom @cocopuffs239 @0x437279707 @TheOmniLiberal that's why it's called a bimodal distribution.
https://t.co/UflmZ5qncA
https://t.co/0B1JklKQZ4
^examples of individuals who are both biologically male and female (they have both ovaries and testes, and can produce both sperm and eggs)

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus it does. i'm showing you the purpose of the tweet, and i'm showing you the definitions of adult. i'm not sure what you're missing.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus https://t.co/oz62tpRDRs

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus 1/2 that's why i'm saying that the term adult has multiple definitions. i guess people want FULL growth to be the definition of an adult, but i don't think the semantics matter. in biology, a 14 year old could be an adult, as they can bare offspring.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus you still haven't responded? lmfao. you're not even trying.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus ? i explained the tweet's purpose here. also, the tool analogy sucks. i'm telling you what the purpose of it was, but the person with the tool is not.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus do you mean "will respond" or responded? 🤔

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus 1/2 that's why i'm saying that the term adult has multiple definitions. i guess people want FULL growth to be the definition of an adult, but i don't think the semantics matter. in biology, a 14 year old could be an adult, as they can bare offspring.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus i literally answered all of those doubts in my thread, lol. but okay.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@seansr915_sean @crazyclipsonly wrong gif. mlk is against violence.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus 3/3 op is suggesting that people simply do not mature neurological-wise in the course of one year. even if we assumed that full mental maturity reaches at 18, it's still silly to hold those 18 year olds at such high standards, as people don't drastically change in one year.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus 2/3 as in, the age of majority (which is 18 in that scenario). op is criticizing this definition, as people often conflate age of majority and full brain maturity, which happens at around 25 years of age and sometimes even 30.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@Maybeyourright2 @deceased_rot @adenijisp @fallenchungus that's the purpose of the original tweet, moron. "what is an adult?" there are many definitions, but the body tends to stop growing at 18-20. the brain continues to grow a couple years past that.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@elonmusk twitter is on the list. lmao

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@elonmusk freedom of speech = one website
controlling speech = five websites
🤔

[Avi Bitterman, MD @AviBittMD]

The strongest (on my view) empirical case that Israel is not committing genocide:

What is the probability of observing various discrimination ratios (RRs) on the hypothesis that a country committed genocide or even a contested genocide in urban warfare?

Based on my current dataset available with genocides (by consensus) or contested genocides that have estimable variables that allow RRs to be calculated, we have the following probabilities:

RR > 0.1: 0.999987
RR > 1.0: 0.669117
RR > 2.0: 0.243106
RR > 3.0: 0.0869798
RR > 4.0: 0.0336123
RR > 5.0: 0.01407538
RR > 6.0: 0.00632607
RR > 7.0: 0.00302032
RR > 8.0: 0.001518378
RR > 9.0: 0.000797944
RR > 10: 0.0004357895
RR > 11: 0.000246155
RR > 12: 0.0001432354
RR > 13: 0.0000855809
RR > 14: 0.0000523591
RR > 15: 0.0000327252
RR > 16: 0.0000208536
RR > 17: 0.00001791897
RR > 18: 0.00001195224
RR > 19: 0.0000080881
RR > 20: 0.00000554649
-----------------------------
RR > 25: 0.000000995669
RR > 30: 0.0000002232365
RR > 40: 0.0000000177914
RR > 50: 0.00000000216344

Unsurprisingly, discrimination ratio strongly relates to genocides in a very expected way. Its incredibly unlikely for genocides to have high discrimination ratios. They tend to be quite low. This makes sense, if a country truly has genocidal intent, it makes very little sense to spend a whole bunch of time, effort, resources, and mission objective compromises just to discriminate away from civilians killings.

So what does this mean in terms of Israel and how the discrimination ratio provides evidence as it relates to the probability of genocide?

With an RR of 16.7, the probability of this expectation happening if Israel is committing genocide is 0.0000208536. If the probability if this observation is 0.5 on the non-genocide hypothesis, then the following priors are updated accordingly:

If you have a prior that Israel is committing genocide as agnostic (0.5), your updated prior on this observation is 0.00004

If you have a prior that Israel is committing genocide as highly convinced (0.9), your updated prior on this observation is 0.00037

This means that even if you are highly convinced by all the meme quotes from Israeli officials, all the footage by the media, to the point where you are 90% confident, this observation alone wipes all that away down to being 0.037% confident.

Okay, but Israel's discrimination ratio per my methodology is an average between Hamas friendly numbers and IDF friendly numbers. What if we just use the Hamas friendly numbers for confirmed deaths?

Then we get a RR of 6.3, the probability of observing at least this is ~0.00632607 on the hypothesis that Israel is committing a genocide. If the non-genocide hypothesis expects this at 0.5, then:

Anyone agnostic (50%) updates to 1.2%
Anyone leaning in the direction (65%) updates to 2.2%
Anyone strongly leaning (80%) updates to 4.8%
Anyone highly convinced (90%) updates to 10.2%

And this is using the Hamas friendly numbers to calculate the relative risk! In reality the true numbers are almost certainly going to be more favorable to Israel.

And keep in mind that this reflects the probability of not just genocide hypothesis, but genocide OR contested genocide hypothesis. So these updated priors aren't just an assessment of the probability that Israel is committing genocide, it's the probability of genocide OR plausible enough of being a contested genocide.

This is still an ongoing project and I am still looking for more battles and genocides that have all the estimated variables to make RR calculable (many do not sadly), but even from what we have so far is objectively hands down the strongest piece of empirical evidence against the charge and provides strong epistemic reasons to dismiss the charge as not even being plausible.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@WilliamAnd809 @JohnDoe49751194 @pxielovee @9insexyworship yeah, diversity of thought when dating. i wouldn't want to date a groyper, but i also wouldn't ban them from existing, lol.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@MarcRudov @elonmusk let ANYBODY vote? wow. i hate democracy so much. fuck leftists.

[throat champion @imtelesu]

@WellLighthouse @Freddies_boy @OmniIcarus he (28) was still a socialist then, lol. sure, maybe the "doesn't pay editors" was a stretch/outdated, but he absolutely does not do it in a socialist manner. either way, the other stuff i said was way worse. the last part is true, though. they're super obssesed