Cheptongei Village Tribunal Judgement:
We agree with you that your neighour cut your fence & stole your cow. We can see the cow in his compound. But we are afraid we can’t return the cow as he has fixed the fence where he had cut. But to compensate you, we will give you a goat!
Case Dismissed.
Jomo Kenyatta was 31 when KCA sent him to London Jaramogi founded Luo thrift at 35. Moi elected to LEGCO at 31. Mboya was “Atwoli” at 23. Kibaki 29 when Jaramogi head hunted him to head KANU Secretariat. William Ruto was 31 when he floored Chesire. Political giants emerge early.
It has been part of my political refrain for sometime to say yet again that Hon Raila was the most consequential politician in Kenyan politics in the past three decades. He built a political behemoth called ODM. He lost every presidential elections he participated in but won in every post presidential election realignment. For three decades, Raila was Kenya's political center of gravity. Nothing moved without his nod or wink. His networks were deep, solid and unmatched. He ran the biggest political laboratory in Kenya and created many useless "test tube" politicians out of nothing. Raila died a LEGEND. BUT, now that he is domiciled in the hereafter, ODM politicians must smell the coffee and be cold brutal realists. The endless nostalgic reminiscing about ODM's great leader and the self-serving polemics of reading in rallies his "last wishes" on how ODM should charts it's course going foward doesn't help...its a fool's errand. ODM politicians must appreciate that none of them has one hundredth of Raila's political strength, financial resources or charisma. Hon. Raila can't be cloned. His political infrastructure can't be inherited either. Not by his brother. Not by widow. Not by his daughters. (Only self made politicians thrive in Kenya's politics). Of course, it will be excellent idea to hold his party together, out of respect for him and to protect his legacy, but that is impossible in Kenya's tribal politics. It is very childish for any politician worth his salt to think that ODM will survive his demise. It will not! Political enterprise that thrive for decades rarely survive the demise of their founders. ODM's demise can however be MANAGED. It must be MANAGED. Dr. Oburu shares only a surname with Raila. Nothing else. My friend Hon Orengo is not the Orengo of the 80s and 90s. He has wilted with unfulfilled political ambitions. Caroli Omondi and Babu Owino aren't ready yet, with the latter's better days ahead. We don't have a Luo heir to Raila's political throne. Simple! Outside Luo Nyanza, ODM has few political midgets with pretentious hallow ambitions that is little more than getting reelected or joining any government in power to enrich their bank accounts. So, what is the way foward? Oburu and has handlers should come to terms with the reality that Raila's ODM is DEAD. Oburu should put all his efforts in protecting Luo Nyanza from political merchants of death...if possible. ODM as a national party can't be maintained post-Raila. It faces huge challenges. But the biggest challenge it will face will be in Nairobi. In 2027 the soul of Nairobi will be a gladiatorial contest between Rigathi Gachagua and Hon Babu Owino with Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka holding a watching brief for the rest of us. ODM, i think will be obliterated in Nairobi. ODM to have any chance of surviving in Nairobi, must surrender to Babu Owino on his terms. Coast will be tricky. The 3 main counties of Mombasa, Kwale and Kilifi will go their own separate ways. Speaker Amason Kingi and his gang will go with Kilifi and its 600k voters. Waziri Salim Mvurya and Gov Fatuma Achani will take firm grip over Kwale. CS Joho will be first among equals in the ethnically cosmopolitan and voter rich Mombasa County. Like Napoleon's or Hilter's infamous retreat from Moscow/Russia, ODM must retreat/evacuate the whole of Northern Kenya, Coast and Nairobi. The gallant efforts of Wajir's Governor Abdullahi will fall to the twin thrust of Roba's UDM from the North and President William Ruto's UDA from the south and the air. Oburu will succeed beyond his wildest dreams if he wins everything in Luo Nyanza. That should be his brief and zero sum game. Any seat he get outside Luo Nyanza is bonus to be kissed and adored. Oburu should oversee the political dominance of ODM in Luo Nyanza while undertaking an orderly retreat and evacuation from the rest of Kenya. ODM has no Raila to run a national party. For obvious reasons I skipped delving into the fate of ODM in Luyha land...🤣