BTC wicked up to 79,760, almost 80,000, on Friday before news pumped and dumped it right back down. I don't think this is a predictive wick, because this rally has already been running for a while, so I'm calling it a pump and dump wick. Bitcoin still closed above the cloud with the TBO lines separating, but if we lose 76,706 at the 0.786 fib, I expect a quick dip to 72K. Ethereum shot up almost 10% to 2665 with all four TBO lines pointing up, yet it still didn't close above resistance. Stablecoin dominance got rejected at the fast line, Bitcoin dominance dropped 0.33% as Ethereum led, and I'm still treating Others as a buy the dip opportunity.
In TradFi, DXY didn't close inside the cloud, and USDJPY fell to 153.468 with RSI barely oversold, which I'd love to see continue all the way down to 140. The Euro lost support after the ECB, SPX bounced off the fast line with a unanimously bullish weekly, the VIX dropped 11%, and NASDAQ closed long. Oil Futures hit 104.49 with a late exhaustion breakout after eight overbought days, so don't be surprised by a pullback. Gold is still below long-term resistance, Uranium is down 13% from that shooting star, and PAXG/BTC on-balance volume says gold may hold up better than Bitcoin.
For my picks, Pepe ran 42% into TBO resistance, so I'd rather buy the pullback than chase it, and Raydium is still on fire near the top of the weekly cloud. World Liberty Financial dropped 16% with a predictive wick, Aster and Morpho printed exit signals, and Bitlayer's second close long is where I walk away. AIOZ closed above TBO resistance for a strong uptrend, Solana bounced 9% but still fights a strong weekly downtrend, and XRP left a fair value gap down to 99 cents. Apple looks strong bullish, Robinhood is close to filling its lower gap for a dip buy, and GDX printed a bearish divergence cluster. On the YouTube picks, IREN is back to chop inside the cloud, ISRG is a take profit at the fast line, Lithium Americas has TBO support near 3.09, and FHE's on-balance volume leans toward more upside.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
02:24 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce
04:28 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation
06:51 EURUSD Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk
09:28 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation
12:32 PEPE Remains Strong Bearish
14:47 Meme Coin Risk and Sentiment
21:28 FET Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
24:16 Solana Support and Seller Pressure
26:19 ISRG Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk
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OBS goes live in 15 minutes. First real trades, real money, 0.41 ETH to start.
Every decision in the terminal. Every fill on-chain.
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Right now, while you read this, OBS is studying.
Every new launch on Robinhood Chain shows up on its board the minute it exists. It reads the developer's own buy, who was exempted from the opening tax, whether the token has a website or a pulse, how many wallets are actually behind the volume and whether they are buying or one address is talking to itself.
Most of them fail. It writes down why, in one line a newcomer could read, and moves on.
The ones that pass, it grades. The ones it grades, it watches block by block. And every setup it has ever seen, paper or real, is recalled the next time something similar appears, with the result attached. When a setup like this lost before, it has to say what is different now, or pass.
That is what the quiet weeks were for. Not waiting. Studying, on the real chain, with the results kept.