People mistake trading as purely accumulating capital, but really trading is a self examination of self where all your mental leaks are on full display. You must conquer yourself before you can truly become great.
Only 60 million people on earth (1.6% of adults) have a net worth over $1 million.
Those 60M people hold 48% of all global wealth.
The bottom 1.55 billion hold 0.6%.
Source: UBS Global Wealth Report 2025
The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases.
We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction.
Bullish Scenario
--The war ends
--Oil prices recede
--Stagflation concerns ease
--Central banks continuing their easing trajectory
Under this scenario, we would expect:
-A broadening market advance
-Emergence of new leadership from sound bases
-A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution
-Significant drop in volatility
Bearish Scenario
--The war persists or escalates
--The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
--Oil prices make new highs
--Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data
This would likely result in:
-Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing
-Lack of follow-through from breakout names
-Further deterioration in breadth and leadership
-Dearth of setups in buyable position
-Continued elevated volatility and distribution
In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.
Honestly exhausting.
People don’t even realize how many *tens of BILLIONS* the President’s inner circle has fleeced from American’s in the market.
Because on the other sides of these trades are the investment funds and pension funds that retail traders hold, losing out to insider info.
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:
* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.
* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.
More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.
Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!