initialday

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

There's really no sign - whatsoever - that US inflation is overheating. That has implications for the Dollar. Just imagine what'll happen to inflation when the war ends and oil prices fall. I think markets are wrong to price hikes for the Fed. Very wrong.
https://t.co/jGE8S66IPN

[initialday @initialday]

😅

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

WE CAN'T STOP WINNING.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Burry is mass-publishing the accounting case for his put options on Nvidia and Palantir while the rest of the market is still debating whether the capex cycle has legs.

The math he’s referencing is specific. The Big Four hyperscalers just guided $650-700 billion in combined 2026 capex, a 60%+ increase from the $381 billion they spent in 2025. Amazon alone committed $200 billion, so far above the $146 billion consensus that the stock lost $450 billion in market cap over nine straight sessions.

Burry’s core thesis is the depreciation trick. Nvidia’s GPU architecture runs on a 3-year cycle, with each generation delivering 2-3x more compute per watt. The H100s shipping today are economically obsolete by 2027. But the hyperscalers are depreciating them over 5-6 years. Burry estimates this gap understates depreciation by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028, inflating reported operating income by 20%+ at companies like Oracle and Meta.

That’s the “accounting tricks” he’s referencing in the tweet. He did the math.

The cash flow picture backs him up. Amazon is projected to go negative FCF in 2026, somewhere between -$17 billion (Morgan Stanley) and -$28 billion (BofA). Alphabet’s free cash flow is expected to collapse 90%, from $73.3 billion to $8.2 billion. The Big Five raised $108 billion in bonds in 2025 alone, more than 3x the average of the prior nine years. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They’re repackaging data center debt as asset-backed securities, $13.3 billion this year, a structure with a history that includes Enron and 2008.

The depreciation cliff is the part the market hasn’t priced. The five hyperscalers plan to add $2 trillion in AI-related assets by 2030. At 20% annual depreciation, that’s $400 billion per year, which exceeds their combined 2025 profits. And AI services currently generate roughly $25 billion in direct revenue against $650 billion in infrastructure spend. Four cents per dollar invested.

But here’s where you have to be careful with Burry. He shorted Tesla at $180. It went to $1,200. He called the housing crisis two years early and nearly went bankrupt waiting for the trade to work. He bought puts on Nvidia and Palantir, capped-downside bets, because even he knows his timing is unreliable.

The pattern with Burry is always the same: the structural analysis is correct, the timing is wrong, and the market can stay irrational long enough to wipe out the trade before it pays. He sees the depreciation cliff. He sees the accounting inflation. He sees the debt structures. All of that is real.

The question is whether AI revenue scales fast enough to fill the gap before the write-downs hit.

AWS alone runs at $142 billion annualized, growing 24%, with a $244 billion backlog. Google Cloud’s backlog surged 55% to $240 billion. These companies are monetizing capacity as fast as they install it.

Burry is building the bear case in public so the crowd does the work for him. That’s the trade. Whether it pays depends on something Burry has never been good at: timing the moment when the music stops.

[initialday @initialday]

Crypto 可以服务于硅基生命

[kuno @kunoo]

"You got lucky"

The luck:

[Yishi @ohyishi]

https://t.co/2X7IKQxyYY

[Shirley | AI & Crypto @shirleyusy]

为什么炒股后比炒币感觉会舒服很多？

从炒币（或高频加密交易）切换到炒股后，生活质量明显提升，尤其是心理上的“解脱感”和周末能真正休息这件事。

为什么炒股感觉“舒服多了”？核心差异其实就几点：
1. 交易时间天然带“强制下班”：A股/美股/港股都有固定开盘收盘，周末+节假日完全关门。这等于给你大脑设置了硬截止时间——市场关了，你就没法操作了，自然能放下手机，去看书、运动、陪家人。加密市场7×24小时永不眠，随时可能有大新闻、暴涨暴跌，FOMO（怕错过）和FUD（恐惧不确定怀疑）会让你半夜爬起来刷盘，长期下来睡眠质量崩坏、焦虑累积。

2. 波动性和情绪强度：股票（尤其是蓝筹或指数ETF）日波动通常在1-5%以内，极端日子也很少超过10%。加密资产随便一天20-50%都很常见，这种高强度刺激像坐过山车，肾上腺素飙升后容易上瘾，但也更容易崩溃、报复性交易。研究显示，加密交易者平均每天查价14+次，32%+的人有强迫性监控行为，明显更高烧脑和成瘾风险。

3. 信息和决策负担：炒股可以靠基本面、财报、行业逻辑做中长期决策，一周复盘一次就够。炒币往往被社交媒体、KOL、突发新闻驱动，信息噪音极大，需要时刻保持高度警觉。

所以“给自己留空间休息确实很重要”非常对。长期可持续的投资/交易，最怕的就是烧尽（burnout）。很多人最终不是亏钱亏死的，而是精神崩溃先把自己玩废了。

哪种“更好”？没有绝对答案，只有更适合你当前阶段的：=～如果你时间有限、想兼顾生活、追求心安理得的复利 → 炒股（或股票+指数基金）明显更好。它允许你“工作日努力、周末充电、长期躺赢”的节奏，心理负担小，睡眠和家庭时间有保障。绝大多数普通人最终财富积累靠的是时间+纪律，而不是每天抓波动。

～如果你全职交易、心理韧性极强、享受高强度对抗、能严格执行风控 → 加密的高波动+24小时机会确实能提供更高潜在回报（但也更高回撤和爆仓概率）。少数顶级交易员确实靠这个养家，但他们往往有极强的作息纪律、自动交易系统、强制断网规则来对抗24/7的诱惑。

～混合模式最现实：很多人现在是主流资产（股票/ETF/债券）占70-80%，加密/高风险资产占20-30%。这样既享受了股市的“正常生活”，又保留了加密的alpha机会，还能周末安心看书。

总结一句话：对大多数人来说，能让你睡好觉、过正常生活的那个，才是长期“更好”的。你现在炒股后感觉舒服多了，其实已经说明答案偏向哪边了——继续保持这个节奏，同时把多出来的精力放在学习、健身、陪伴上，复利会自己慢慢跑出来。

[initialday @initialday]

6

[陈剑Jason @jason_chen998]

撕来撕去，吵来吵去，骂来骂去，互相都抱着要把对方弄死的心态，神仙打架小鬼遭殃，都他妈别玩了毁灭吧，这年又彻底没法好好过了

[bacon @steve2bacon]

what buying the dip feels like

[greg @greg16676935420]

@realDonaldTrump Rest in Peace Charlie 🙏

[initialday @initialday]

@worldlibertyfi @Bullish My wallet was banned despite clean KYC & no illicit activity. I’m very frustrated and depressed. Please nip it in the bud。

[N Giraldo @Nicolasg9827]

Hello WLFI team, @worldlibertyfi @EricTrump

I am very dissatisfied with the current situation. I participated in the presale, submitted all the required documents for the KYC process, and was approved at that time. I was able to purchase my tokens without any issues, which means both my identity and my wallet were verified.

Now I am being told that my wallet is not eligible for the unlock/Lockbox, which I find unfair and inconsistent, since I fully complied with all the requirements from the beginning.

I believe it is not acceptable to simply mark wallets as “not eligible” without providing investors with a proper explanation or a clear solution.

As someone who participated in the presale, completed KYC, and was approved to purchase tokens, I expect transparency. If my wallet is now flagged as ineligible, I need to know:
1.The exact reason why this happened.
2.Whether there is a process to correct the issue (e.g., resubmitting documents, updating information, or linking a different wallet).

It is not fair to leave investors without options after trusting the project from the beginning. I respectfully ask for a detailed answer and a path to resolve this issue.

Everyone who is facing the same issue — wallets being marked as “not eligible” for the Lockbox even after completing KYC and participating in the presale — should speak up together.
#WLFI #crypto #CryptoNews
@CryptoPeakX

[机灵的杰尼君🔶BNB @Meta8Mate]

杰尼获悉：不少用户反应特朗普加密项目 $WLFI @worldlibertyfi 无法存入Lockbox进行预解锁，并已创建维权群。

个人觉得应该问题不大，懂王虽然爱圈钱，但是不至于卡BUG不让部分用户解锁，最近可以耐心等待项目方解决，提前套保也行。

不然最后只能找Trump维权了😂。

[initialday @initialday]

@worldlibertyfi @EricTrump

[加密金爷 @AurelianVault]

How many people applied for WLFI unlocking but were not approved? I'll tally the numbers and report back to WLFI officials!
#WLFI #USD1

[initialday @initialday]

@elonmusk Check out Audrey, Neuralink’s 9th user—drew a ‘cat’ with her mind! Future’s here, next stop Mars? 😄❤️ #Neuralink

[Audrey Crews @NeuraNova9]

Cant remember who requested these but i did my best. Enjoy. #Neuralink #doitlady

[initialday @initialday]

make A股 great again的意思？？？