$BTC Daily Plan:
Rejection back below VAH
-> rotation towards range POC likely
> Lost the 50D EMA -> historically strong S/R
> Structure weakening after the move
> No strong acceptance above value
Scenarios:
Base case
> Continued rotation into POC
Alternative
> Reclaim VAH -> short-term relief-> liquidity grab into my marked correction zone-> I’ll look to short aggressively there
Important:
Most are blaming geopolitics / macro data for the sell-off. But positioning was already there.
Events don’t create moves.
They accelerate what’s already built up.
This was just the trigger.
$usdt.d
>range conditions
>bottom of the range
>smt div -> possible rotation inside the range
>nye open should decide the move.
>LTF continuation entries after it shows its hand.
-> patience.
$BTC – Levels I’m Watching Going Into Next Week
BTC is currently testing the weekly open.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
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