Quality ranking: ROIC, FCF margin, gross margin, and financial momentum combined.
1. $PLTR — ROIC +88pp · FCF 45% · model -24%
2. $NVDA — ROIC +122pp · FCF 45% · model -5%
3. $MU — ROIC +77pp · FCF 45% · model -24%
4. $META — ROIC +25pp · FCF 45% · model +17%
5. $MA — ROIC +26pp · FCF 35% · model -18%
$PLTR scores highest. But it's 24% above our fair value estimate. Quality has a price — and at this level, most of the quality premium is already in the stock. You're not buying a hidden gem; you're paying full freight for a business that has earned it. That's a different bet.
#Quality #ROIC #ValueInvesting #Stocks
The most profitable companies on earth by 2027.
Profit estimates (analyst consensus):
1. $NVDA ~$309B
2. $AMZN ~$106B
3. $AVGO ~$92.3B
4. $META ~$76.8B
5. $XOM ~$44.8B
These aren't just big companies. They're businesses generating more cash than most countries collect in taxes.
Which one would you add to the watchlist?
#Stocks #Investing #Earnings
Checking back on $XOM — one of the most-discussed stocks on this account.
🔴 Currently at $137.09. Our model puts fair value at $87.46 (-36.2% premium).
Scenario range: $76.23 bear → $128.65 bull.
ROIC spread: +5pp above cost of capital.
11 analysts have a $170.29 target.
↳ Fwd P/E in line with 3Y avg (13×) · Growth accelerating: analysts -5.0% vs 3Y CAGR -7.0%
Roughly in line with the S&P this year.
Has the story changed, or is this still the same setup?
https://t.co/pskvsbeY6e
$XOM #Stocks #DCF #ValueInvesting
🟡 $FDX — Moderately below fair value
$FDX's actual 3-year annual growth rate: -2.0%.
Model and market are broadly in agreement here.
8 analysts expect 3.7%/yr growth and rate it Buy.
Model fair value ~$370.27 (+18.3% vs today's price)
Range: $254.81 → $553.13
One of the oldest questions in markets — is the price right?
https://t.co/GeUJPdTnM4
$FDX #DCF #Investing
📚 What actually drives stock returns? (The Fama-French answer)
In 1993, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published a model that changed how academia thinks about equity returns.
They found three factors explain most of the variation in stock returns:
1. Market risk (beta) — stocks beat bonds on average
2. Size — small caps beat large caps historically
3. Value — cheap stocks (low P/B) beat expensive ones
In 2015, they extended to five factors, adding:
4. Profitability — high operating profit stocks beat low ones
5. Investment — companies that invest conservatively beat aggressive investors
Factor 3 (value) and 4 (profitability) map directly to DCF.
Low P/B = trading below book = margin of safety.
High profitability = high ROIC = durable cash flows.
DCF formalizes what Fama-French quantified empirically.
You're not doing something different from academic finance — you're doing the same thing with more transparency.
#FamaFrench #FactorInvesting #DCF #AcademicFinance
The price moved. Did the value? S&P 500 +0.0% to start.
S&P 500 +0.00% · Nasdaq -0.80%
DAX +0.4% · FTSE -0.3% · Nikkei +1.5%
Oil $69 (-0.1%) · Gold $4190 (+1.9%)
US Dollar Index (DXY) flat at 100.8.
#Markets#Investing#DCF
No major data today — but here's what's coming:
👷 JOLTS Job Openings — Tue, Jul 7 (4d)
Use the quiet days to run models before the numbers hit.
#Earnings#Macro#Investing#Calendar
10Y yield 4.48% and rising. Here's what that means for valuations:
At 4.48%, the 10Y yield is in mid-range. Direction matters more than level here — a move toward 4.5% would begin to pressure growth stock valuations.
Rule of thumb: every 100bps rise in the 10Y yield pushes WACC up ~50–70bps for most stocks (higher for equity-heavy, high-beta businesses — lower for leveraged, low-beta names where the tax shield on debt partially offsets the move). For a growth stock where 70% of value sits in the terminal period, that cuts fair value by 20–30%.
3 rate-sensitive names and where the model stands:
$PLD (REIT): WACC: 8.5%. Model: -7.4% vs price.
$MSFT (Growth tech): WACC: 9.4%. Model: +20.3% vs price.
$NEE (Utility): WACC: 6.2%. Model: -22.0% vs price.
Growth stocks (long duration) feel rate moves most. Value stocks and dividend payers are relatively insulated — their near-term cash flows discount less.
#InterestRates #WACC #DCF #Bonds #Investing
Checking back on $COP — one of the most-discussed stocks on this account.
🔴 Currently at $104.73. Our model puts fair value at $91.11 (-13.0% premium).
Scenario range: $78.30 bear → $135.73 bull.
ROIC spread: +10pp above cost of capital.
6 analysts have a $143.20 target.
↳ Fwd P/E in line with 3Y avg (12×) · Growth accelerating: analysts -6.7% vs 3Y CAGR -9.2%
Down 8% YTD — 12pp behind the S&P.
Has the story changed, or is this still the same setup?
https://t.co/76voK3bzxx
$COP #Stocks #DCF #ValueInvesting
Strongest 1-month momentum in large caps.
1. $PANW — +24.1% in 30 days · $348.06
2. $CMG — +23.1% in 30 days · $35.39
3. $ABBV — +20.2% in 30 days · $261.07
4. $GE — +20.0% in 30 days · $377.52
5. $JNJ — +17.8% in 30 days · $263.04
6. $AXP — +17.1% in 30 days · $351.96
$PANW up 24% in a month — model puts fair value at $234.27, 33% below today.
That's momentum without fundamental confirmation. If you're buying here, you're making a turnaround bet, not a value bet. Know which trade you're in.
Any surprises here?
#Momentum #Stocks #Investing
S&P +0.00% · Nasdaq -0.80% · Dow +1.14%
▲ Healthcare +2.65%
▲ Utilities +2.21%
▲ Financials +1.52%
→ Energy +0.81%
→ Industrials +0.29%
▼ Tech -2.77%
10Y 4.48% (+2.58%) · Oil $68 (-0.2%) · Gold $4133 · DXY 100.9
Healthcare led (+2.7%) as investors rotated into defensives.
Tech was the laggard (-2.8%).
Rising yields (+2.6bps) added pressure on rate-sensitive assets.
10Y at 4.48% — if it breaks 4.5%, growth stocks will feel it
The tape closed. The model didn't change. Check which of your positions moved on price vs. fundamentals.
#MarketClose #Investing #StockMarket
Today's biggest winners — Thu, Jul 2
$AAPL leads at +4.8%.
1. $AAPL — +4.84% · now $308.63
2. $NFLX — +4.66% · now $77.65
3. $ADBE — +4.14% · now $219.72
4. $MCD — +4.07% · now $280.39
5. $ABBV — +3.98% · now $261.04
Model says fair value is $197.98 — still 36% below today's price even after the move.
A big move is information. The question is whether the business changed or just the price.
Are you buying any of these?
#StockMarket #Winners #Investing #DCF