insic.app

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[insic.app @insicapp]

Type any ticker → Get fair value + what growth the market prices in. Try any stock free 👇

[insic.app @insicapp]

High yield + undervalued by our model. Rare combination.

1. $T — 5.4% yield · 37% payout · model +34%
2. $VZ — 6.7% yield · 67% payout · model -3%
3. $BMY — 4.3% yield · 70% payout · model -1%
4. $D — 3.8% yield · 79% payout · model -11%
5. $PM — 3.2% yield · 81% payout · model -19%
6. $XOM — 3.0% yield · 68% payout · model -36%

$T leads: 5.4% yield and 34% below our fair value estimate. Payout ratio is sustainable.

Which one would you add to the watchlist?

#Dividends #IncomeInvesting #ValueInvesting #Stocks

[insic.app @insicapp]

Quality ranking: ROIC, FCF margin, gross margin, and financial momentum combined.

1. $PLTR — ROIC +88pp · FCF 45% · model -24%
2. $NVDA — ROIC +122pp · FCF 45% · model -5%
3. $MU — ROIC +77pp · FCF 45% · model -24%
4. $META — ROIC +25pp · FCF 45% · model +17%
5. $MA — ROIC +26pp · FCF 35% · model -18%

$PLTR scores highest. But it's 24% above our fair value estimate. Quality has a price — and at this level, most of the quality premium is already in the stock. You're not buying a hidden gem; you're paying full freight for a business that has earned it. That's a different bet.

#Quality #ROIC #ValueInvesting #Stocks

[insic.app @insicapp]

The most profitable companies on earth by 2027.

Profit estimates (analyst consensus):
1. $NVDA ~$309B
2. $AMZN ~$106B
3. $AVGO ~$92.3B
4. $META ~$76.8B
5. $XOM ~$44.8B

These aren't just big companies. They're businesses generating more cash than most countries collect in taxes.

Which one would you add to the watchlist?

#Stocks #Investing #Earnings

[insic.app @insicapp]

Checking back on $XOM — one of the most-discussed stocks on this account.
🔴 Currently at $137.09. Our model puts fair value at $87.46 (-36.2% premium).
Scenario range: $76.23 bear → $128.65 bull.
ROIC spread: +5pp above cost of capital.
11 analysts have a $170.29 target.
↳ Fwd P/E in line with 3Y avg (13×) · Growth accelerating: analysts -5.0% vs 3Y CAGR -7.0%
Roughly in line with the S&P this year.
Has the story changed, or is this still the same setup?
https://t.co/pskvsbeY6e
$XOM #Stocks #DCF #ValueInvesting

[insic.app @insicapp]

Today's biggest losers — Fri, Jul 3
$TSLA leads the selling at -7.5%.
1. $TSLA — -7.49% · now $393.45
2. $MU — -5.49% · now $975.56
3. $INTC — -5.25% · now $120.35
4. $META — -4.90% · now $582.90
5. $AMD — -4.26% · now $517.82
Model puts fair value at $69.81 — 82% below today's close.
Price drops ≠ business breaks. Worth checking which.
Any of these turnaround candidates?
#StockMarket #Losers #Investing #DCF

[insic.app @insicapp]

$WMT — Conviction Score: 42/100 (D)
More risks than rewards.
Valuation: 21 Price is +7.2% above our fair value estimate
Quality: 57 Fair competitive position · returns 10.1% above cost of capital
Health: 23 Poor balance sheet · financials deteriorating · moderate watch zone
Growth: 43 Weak
Integrity: 80 Earnings appear reliable · cash flow confirms reported profits
Risk: 56 Moderate financial risk — worth monitoring
Sentiment: 81 86% of analysts are bullish · beat earnings estimates 3 of last 4 quarters
Fair value estimate: $103.80 · Current price: $111.84
Full breakdown https://t.co/UnMkwsqCeh
$WMT #ConvictionScore #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

6 large caps trading the furthest above our fair value estimate.

Premium priced ≠ bad business. But it means expectations are high.

1. $ABBV — 67% above model · 16× fwd P/E
2. $MPC — 44% above model · 11× fwd P/E
3. $PSX — 42% above model · 10× fwd P/E
4. $CVX — 40% above model · 13× fwd P/E
5. $SBUX — 36% above model · 35× fwd P/E
6. $HD — 35% above model · 22× fwd P/E

$ABBV leads at 67% above fair value.

Any of these turnaround candidates?

#Stocks #Overvalued #DCF #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

Value vs Growth — same DCF engine, different philosophies.

Value picks:
1. $BAC — -12% upside · 12× fwd P/E
2. $JNJ — -22% upside · 21× fwd P/E
3. $JPM — -24% upside · 14× fwd P/E

Growth picks:
1. $META — +20% est. revenue growth · 17× fwd P/E
2. $GOOGL — +19% est. revenue growth · 25× fwd P/E
3. $MSFT — +17% est. revenue growth · 20× fwd P/E

Value = margin of safety. Growth = compounding. The best investments offer both.
Which one stands out to you?

#ValueInvesting #GrowthStocks #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

🟡 $FDX — Moderately below fair value
$FDX's actual 3-year annual growth rate: -2.0%.
Model and market are broadly in agreement here.
8 analysts expect 3.7%/yr growth and rate it Buy.
Model fair value ~$370.27 (+18.3% vs today's price)
Range: $254.81 → $553.13
One of the oldest questions in markets — is the price right?
https://t.co/GeUJPdTnM4
$FDX #DCF #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

📚 What actually drives stock returns? (The Fama-French answer)

In 1993, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published a model that changed how academia thinks about equity returns.

They found three factors explain most of the variation in stock returns:

1. Market risk (beta) — stocks beat bonds on average
2. Size — small caps beat large caps historically
3. Value — cheap stocks (low P/B) beat expensive ones

In 2015, they extended to five factors, adding:
4. Profitability — high operating profit stocks beat low ones
5. Investment — companies that invest conservatively beat aggressive investors

Factor 3 (value) and 4 (profitability) map directly to DCF.
Low P/B = trading below book = margin of safety.
High profitability = high ROIC = durable cash flows.

DCF formalizes what Fama-French quantified empirically.
You're not doing something different from academic finance — you're doing the same thing with more transparency.

#FamaFrench #FactorInvesting #DCF #AcademicFinance

[insic.app @insicapp]

🔴 $AAPL — this morning's pick
Significant premium to fair value at $308.63. Model fair value: $197.73 (-35.9%).
41 analysts expect 8.9%/yr revenue growth.
ROIC +37pp vs cost of capital.
Wall St: Buy.
↳ Fwd P/E in line with 3Y avg (31×) · Growth accelerating: analysts 8.9% vs 3Y CAGR 1.8%
https://t.co/C0UMiV0cLP
$AAPL #StockPick #DCF #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

The price moved. Did the value? S&P 500 +0.0% to start.
S&P 500 +0.00% · Nasdaq -0.80%

DAX +0.4% · FTSE -0.3% · Nikkei +1.5%
Oil $69 (-0.1%) · Gold $4190 (+1.9%)

US Dollar Index (DXY) flat at 100.8.
#Markets #Investing #DCF

[insic.app @insicapp]

No major data today — but here's what's coming:

👷 JOLTS Job Openings — Tue, Jul 7 (4d)

Use the quiet days to run models before the numbers hit.
#Earnings #Macro #Investing #Calendar

[insic.app @insicapp]

10Y yield 4.48% and rising. Here's what that means for valuations:
At 4.48%, the 10Y yield is in mid-range. Direction matters more than level here — a move toward 4.5% would begin to pressure growth stock valuations.
Rule of thumb: every 100bps rise in the 10Y yield pushes WACC up ~50–70bps for most stocks (higher for equity-heavy, high-beta businesses — lower for leveraged, low-beta names where the tax shield on debt partially offsets the move). For a growth stock where 70% of value sits in the terminal period, that cuts fair value by 20–30%.
3 rate-sensitive names and where the model stands:
$PLD (REIT): WACC: 8.5%. Model: -7.4% vs price.
$MSFT (Growth tech): WACC: 9.4%. Model: +20.3% vs price.
$NEE (Utility): WACC: 6.2%. Model: -22.0% vs price.
Growth stocks (long duration) feel rate moves most. Value stocks and dividend payers are relatively insulated — their near-term cash flows discount less.
#InterestRates #WACC #DCF #Bonds #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

High yield + undervalued by our model. Rare combination.

1. $T — 5.4% yield · 37% payout · model +34%
2. $VZ — 6.7% yield · 67% payout · model -3%
3. $PM — 3.3% yield · 81% payout · model -19%
4. $PG — 2.9% yield · 62% payout · model -8%
5. $MCD — 2.8% yield · 60% payout · model -16%
6. $ABT — 2.7% yield · 67% payout · model -0%

$T leads: 5.4% yield and 34% below our fair value estimate. Payout ratio is sustainable.

Are you buying any of these?

#Dividends #IncomeInvesting #ValueInvesting #Stocks

[insic.app @insicapp]

Checking back on $COP — one of the most-discussed stocks on this account.
🔴 Currently at $104.73. Our model puts fair value at $91.11 (-13.0% premium).
Scenario range: $78.30 bear → $135.73 bull.
ROIC spread: +10pp above cost of capital.
6 analysts have a $143.20 target.
↳ Fwd P/E in line with 3Y avg (12×) · Growth accelerating: analysts -6.7% vs 3Y CAGR -9.2%
Down 8% YTD — 12pp behind the S&P.
Has the story changed, or is this still the same setup?
https://t.co/76voK3bzxx
$COP #Stocks #DCF #ValueInvesting

[insic.app @insicapp]

Strongest 1-month momentum in large caps.
1. $PANW — +24.1% in 30 days · $348.06
2. $CMG — +23.1% in 30 days · $35.39
3. $ABBV — +20.2% in 30 days · $261.07
4. $GE — +20.0% in 30 days · $377.52
5. $JNJ — +17.8% in 30 days · $263.04
6. $AXP — +17.1% in 30 days · $351.96
$PANW up 24% in a month — model puts fair value at $234.27, 33% below today.
That's momentum without fundamental confirmation. If you're buying here, you're making a turnaround bet, not a value bet. Know which trade you're in.
Any surprises here?
#Momentum #Stocks #Investing

[insic.app @insicapp]

S&P +0.00% · Nasdaq -0.80% · Dow +1.14%
▲ Healthcare +2.65%
▲ Utilities +2.21%
▲ Financials +1.52%
→ Energy +0.81%
→ Industrials +0.29%
▼ Tech -2.77%

10Y 4.48% (+2.58%) · Oil $68 (-0.2%) · Gold $4133 · DXY 100.9

Healthcare led (+2.7%) as investors rotated into defensives.
Tech was the laggard (-2.8%).
Rising yields (+2.6bps) added pressure on rate-sensitive assets.

10Y at 4.48% — if it breaks 4.5%, growth stocks will feel it

The tape closed. The model didn't change. Check which of your positions moved on price vs. fundamentals.
#MarketClose #Investing #StockMarket

[insic.app @insicapp]

Today's biggest winners — Thu, Jul 2
$AAPL leads at +4.8%.
1. $AAPL — +4.84% · now $308.63
2. $NFLX — +4.66% · now $77.65
3. $ADBE — +4.14% · now $219.72
4. $MCD — +4.07% · now $280.39
5. $ABBV — +3.98% · now $261.04
Model says fair value is $197.98 — still 36% below today's price even after the move.
A big move is information. The question is whether the business changed or just the price.
Are you buying any of these?
#StockMarket #Winners #Investing #DCF

[insic.app @insicapp]

6 large caps trading the furthest above our fair value estimate.

Premium priced ≠ bad business. But it means expectations are high.

1. $ABBV — 50% above model · 16× fwd P/E
2. $JPM — 47% above model · 14× fwd P/E
3. $BAC — 41% above model · 12× fwd P/E
4. $MU — 26% above model · 6× fwd P/E
5. $IBM — 24% above model · 21× fwd P/E
6. $AVGO — 23% above model · 19× fwd P/E

$ABBV leads at 50% above fair value.

Which one do you think bounces first?

#Stocks #Overvalued #DCF #Investing