David Chau

Captain Condor 🦅 | Fund Manager | Market Mover | Memes + Math = Alpha

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@jordanfogel Yup

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

Merry Christmas,

I wish nothing but success for all.

Anytime an iron condor breaches we track the levels over the last 3 years and we build our quantitative model around this.

This is the first time our series failed in over 3 years since CBOE released dailies in 2022, 1 series. you can’t backtest anything prior. So yes we are pioneers.

Black Scholes options pricing formula uses implied volatility not future. I suspect these conditions offered perfect opportunity for range breaches. I didn’t expect this to be any different than any other time we traded. We have rules and followed the books. We don’t normally close trades because all stats are realized at the close, Often have seen markets breach and close back inside. This is how our long model works (the one that predicts 1SD breaches) But they don’t work together to complement short IC.

The premise of our strategy is not about avoiding losses, it’s about generating positive expectancy.

Positive EV in this strategy is accepting that these events will happen because it’s a probability based system , but if you started with x$ and doubled or tripled the amount, you take off principle and scale the rest with house $.

In a nutshell, yes we are hurt but I don’t fucking give up. We will regroup and try again.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@InvestorMMM Thanks let me know if you have anything we can cross check our work.

I’m working with somebody that reached out now and they have some compelling correlation so maybe will have a leading indicator soon.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@SPXGAMMA @agtrader We have a log yes dm me

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@gherkinit @nitou_cybrotter @GammaStr1ke What I’m asking is , is there a way to go back and check what the positioning is for each and every single day.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@gherkinit @nitou_cybrotter @GammaStr1ke I understand there isn’t an API but is there a way to manually pull each day or some look back period for 3 years, then we can quantify it

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@agtrader I read this and I have an answer but It’s just so much more complex, give me a dm we can hop on a call and I’ll give you my 100%!

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@Ghostztradez We have tried everything, and we are open to suggestions if anybody has something quantifiable not just all talk.

I’m in no competition with anybody, if we win we all win together

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@Ghostztradez Lose that trade * excuse the typos and grammar

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

I’ll shoot it straight

When you hedge it’s a double edge sword, you open up risk and you could lose that risk.

Yes we have managed positions, closed positions when breached but what we have found was that all the stats we realized at the close.

We have closed positions and the market swing back inside. So we built rules in place to define risk before we enter into any series

I hope that answers your question. We try to eliminate any discretional decisions / hedging.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

We trade based on the data we have, I’m not an expert in GEX or anything people talk about

Nobody has ever sent us anything quantifiable to show proof that there is any correlation.

We are still looking for anything quantifiable, but for now we will draw our conclusions. Chalk shit up and run it back stronger

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

I don’t know anything about that, Is it a fake profile ?

I don’t really care if they are are she / he.

I followed them for some time during that huge fiasco I wasn’t invested into it.

I don’t have anything personal against anybody, at the end of the day we are all just trying to make it in life.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@agtrader We have traded half days and fomc, it was systematic. If x happens and y triggers then we trade.

In hindsight there might be a few things we missed and that’s what we are trying to figure out

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@SoccerMomTrades @Merridew__ All good sorry lol I actually followed you some years back, didn’t mean to put you on the spot.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

We don’t look at “SPXW positioning”

Can you show me something quantifiable over the last 3 years regarding this positioning to see how our series would pan out?

I’m not an expert in “SPXW positioning” I’m an expert in the models we trade and produce and we don’t use positioning to make trading decisions

If you can show me something quantifiable we can draw correlations and implement it into the system.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@VolSignals Aha ok

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@happysphere @nitou_cybrotter @OptionsDepth We have CBOE yes

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@happysphere @nitou_cybrotter I agree with this,

We felt like this was different because of that…

So regroup and try again and willing negate this.

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@RyanBaileyEdge @Groot751188 Sure thang,

We did our work we ran our numbers. It’s viable so we will continue

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@VolSignals Merry Christmas man, all I ask is for another awesome meme aha

[David Chau @InsideOptions_]

@nitou_cybrotter Got it, I would need like a csv file for the last 3 years so we can check if it correlates. This would be helpful