Intel Arb

Macro | Cross-Asset | Markets

New Substack:

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@market_sleuth Private money already has those gains.

AMZN, NVDA, and GOOG didn’t IPO as a top 10 largest market cap in the country.

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

The question is: How much of the sell-off is driving by broad liquidity tightening vs a realization the Gov can steal your crypto if they want to…

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@DeItaone That’s not bullish bitcoin at all.

The whole point of bitcoin was so they couldn’t take your money.

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

As of last Friday, the Nasdaq outperformance run compared to Staples was on par with late dot-com bubble.

Extremely rare price action in recent weeks.

Classic bubble stuff.

$QQQ $XLP

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Factor returns over the last 2 months look exactly like they did in the summer of July 2024.

That vol-suppression led to a violent growth>>value rotation and eventually led Vol to blow out.

$IWD $IWF $QQQ

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Late to the orange app
https://t.co/VmYCkyJz8f

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

L/S Momentum basket has surged.
L/S Low Vol factor has been crushed.

Rolling performing differential between the 2 sits at 20-year highs.

$MTUM $SMH $SPLV

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Complete divergence between VIXEQ and VIX.

Volatility is very compressed at the index level. We are correlation pricing extremes.

$VIX $SPY $QQQ

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

https://t.co/wfGDM1f3TN

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

https://t.co/wfGDM1f3TN

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@herb_lust Scary looking dish Herb!

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@Rory_Johnston @LynAldenContact While I don’t want to undermine the significance… y-axis chart crime on steroids

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@unusual_whales Feb: “if the SoH doesn’t open by May the world will explode”

March: “if the SoH doesn’t open by June the world will explode”

April: “if the SoH doesn’t open by July the world will explode”

May: “if the SoH doesn’t open by August the world will explode”

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@pmarca Surely that’s rage bait and tech bros don’t actually believe that…

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@DeItaone That’s not bullish bitcoin at all.

The whole point of bitcoin was so they couldn’t take your money.

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Here’s the same basket of EM currency returns with correlation vs. $VIX

All time lows.

Paging Lee, Lee, and Coldiron (Rise of Carry) - everything is just a short vol trade right now!!

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

The entire financial market looks like 1 gigantic short vol trade right now.

Correlation of EM Carry Trade Index vs. S&P 500 is currently at decade+ highs.

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Implied correlation back to near all-time lows... Here are the only days in history when 1-month implied correlation has been below 8.

Not exactly a time to pile in on longs!

$SPY $VIX

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@citrini That cannot happen without vol exploding higher. Record low implied correlation is why the VIX has a 15-handle.

VIXEQ meanwhile is above 40!

Pointing being, if you believe that, the best way to play it is OTM Index calls.

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@JoeyGEX @WallStJesus I still haven’t seen a report that tries to decipher how much of Capex increases are due to broad materials costs rising vs actually new planned volume output

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

SPX down
Nasdaq down
Russell down
Semis down
Vol doing nothing
Every single stock below UP 2-6%

$LCID +3%
$GRPN +6%
$CRM +3%
$XRX +4%
$FLWS +2%
$RUN +4%
$PCT +2%

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

Well that leads me to one broad summer trade idea…

Look for short-squeeze candidates.

Because of the dispersion trade, I think single names are best here. Lots of software like $GRPN or $CRM have sizable short interest.

Other names include: $PCT $LCID $XRX $RUN $FLWS

[Intel Arb @intelarb]

@anidesh7 Same thing in multiple of the past few summers…