What do diff-in-diff event-study designs really tell us about the employment effects of min wages?
My new paper with @NeumarkEcon tackles this using the stacked design of Cengiz-@arindube-@attilalindner-@benzipperer and the related LP-DiD design in Dube-Lindner’s HLE chapter. 🧵
Trump HUMILIATES Netanyahu at the G7 Press Conference After Iran MoU Defiance
"We are the big partner, and he is the very small partner.
I say, you can do a little softer touch, Bibi, you don’t have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it; that’s from Hezbollah.
I think they could do better, with respect to Hezbollah. I'm not saying they shouldn't protect themselves, I'm saying when two drones are shot into the desert and dropped harmlessly, you don't have to knock down buildings in Beirut."
The totality of the evidence shows that the surge of unauthorized immigration in highly-exposed labor markets created jobs for immigrants, did not create jobs for Americans, reduced wages for Americans, and increased both rents and housing prices.
The Fed working paper on illegal immigration showed the Biden immigration surge caused a decline in wages and increase in housing costs. Specifically, a 1% annualized immigrant inflow lowered annualized wage growth for natives 0.7% and increased annualized rent growth by 1.4%.
Published in the WSJ…
Imagine what mass deportations would do to rents and public services. GenZ and Millennials would realize that they’ve been competing with an entire foreign class for their own country.
Finally, the Fed researchers document statistically null employment effects for natives. All the employment growth seems to have accrued to foreigners.
@jondr44 Whether or not the drop in population is causal, a negative population estimate paired with a negative employment estimate will drive employment rate effects toward zero. In NR's Figure 2 (bundled events), they show zero pretrends for their negative log employment event study.
@David_J_Bier@SenEricSchmitt Ok ok, hear me out. Let’s end ALL the foreign visas for 10 years and send all foreigners home and see if you’re correct. I’d love to try this experiment.
‼️The MAGA movement is demanding that the Trump admin end a visa program that incentivizes employers to hire foreign students.
"It makes you mad," @SenRickScott told @DailySignal. "We all pay our taxes, and then we create incentives for our companies in our country to hire foreign workers."
Noem said she was reevaluating the Optional Practical Training program, but Sec. Mullin has not updated DHS' stance on OPT.
"OPT is the gateway drug of our scam ‘legal’ immigration system—it allows corporations to hire an unlimited number foreigners rather than American citizens," Steve Bannon said.
Employers receive a tax break for hiring foreign graduates under OPT, which some say gives foreigners an advantage over Americans.
https://t.co/KerraZNROm
Here’s the question more people are starting to ask:
If H-1B is the problem…
why is nobody talking about OPT?
Up to 3 years of work authorization.
Feeds directly into H-1B.
No congressional vote created it.
No congressional vote is required to change it.
Is OPT the real story?