John Fowler

Building @intintrigue - subscribe for free 👇 Former diplomat in China. Mostly geopolitical news and my thoughts on that news.

[Jeremy Dicker 🌏 @Dicker_JJ]

spent all morning on this

[John Fowler @IntrigueJohn]

This but "because I didn't know any".

[Jeremy Dicker 🌏 @Dicker_JJ]

you’re welcome

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's chief negotiator says Tehran has rejected three U.S. backed ceasefire proposals this week, delivered through Qatar, Iraq, and Pakistan — which reportedly angered Donald Trump and pushed him to announce a massive strike on Iran, according to Iranian outlets.

The source suggests Iran is waiting for U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels to drop critically low, expected by mid-August, and for oil to hit around $120 a barrel before considering any deal and and eventually, Donald Trump would have to accept Iran's terms, meaning TACO.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to approximately 311.4 million barrels, its lowest level since March 1983, according to the latest EIA data. Analysts warn that if disruptions hit both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz at the same time, oil could climb to around $124 a barrel in August.

[jacob l. shapiro @JacobShap]

the problem with tariffs is really not the tariffs

they are dumb without a corresponding level of urgency in industrial policy, but w/e, the market can adjust to them

the problem is the total lack of clarity predictability legality etc when it comes to them

it's truly remarkable the own goals the Trump admin is making

if they had just stuck to main principles of Trump 1.0, i.e. non-interventionism, cheap energy, protect US industry from China, conclude trade deals with strategic partners...

the economy would likely be RIPPING

instead the admin has basically sabotaged cheap energy with its foolishness in iran, sabotaged trade deals with partners, been soft on China

the market is running on the fumes of AI/data center capex (and here US policy is also pretty blah). maybe that macro can keep going. fundamentals have a way of succeeding over policy whether good or bad.

but Trumpy ironically could have been governing over the "golden age" he preens about if he hadn't botched so many of these policy choices, and instead history will probably think of him more like an LBJ or Hoover-like figure.

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

The Information - The Bureau of Industry and Security, an agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce, is formally investigating whether Chinese firms like Moonshot, which last week released the Kimi K3 model, are accessing advanced U.S. AI chips, according to a BIS spokesperson https://t.co/zBRuoch5q2

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

Moonshot should release the K3 open weights and details about what infrastructure K3 trained on.

The debate about PRC models and distillation is breaking brains throughout Silicon Valley and the AI community, with many arguing the US government is at risk of regulatory capture by Anthropic and OpenAI, and instead should just focus on competing, and anyway the US frontier labs are all built on the distillation of human knowledge so who are they to whinge about being distilled.

If the US officials are making the argument to President Trump that the Chinese labs are ripping America off and risk crashing the stock market by undermining investor confidence in the AI boom that is driving the stock market, the odds of US government actions against some of these labs are high, no matter what other Silicon Valley leaders, and even Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, try to argue.

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

So the head of White House office of S&T policy, the Treasury Secretary and a senior State Department official have all tweeted similar things about Kimi and distillation today . Something is coming

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf have prompted U.S. intelligence analysts to investigate whether Russia assisted by providing targeting information or advanced drone technology, said four people familiar with U.S. intelligence.

These people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters, said U.S. intelligence officials have ‌not yet reached firm conclusions about the possible Russian involvement in the attacks on CIA facilities. But they cited the strikes' effectiveness and apparent precision, as well as Russia's broader technical support for Iran, as possible evidence…

Two Western officials in the Gulf who were briefed on intelligence reports said analysts thought the Saudi attack involved a pair of Russian-enhanced versions of Iran's Shahed drones.”
@JonathanLanday @G_Slattery @timourazhari
https://t.co/b1nR3KMbw9

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

“The Dean Ball tweet backfired. Announce the novel cybersecurity threat.”

[Mike Nelson @mikenelson586]

Based on this, Epic Fury costs $262M/day

The Iraq War cost $256M/day

[John Fowler @IntrigueJohn]

I generally avoid conspircy theories, but I know how VC works, and I always wonder whether these are elaborate messaging campaigns (based on true or partially true events) to change government policy.

[John Fowler @IntrigueJohn]

This all seems fine right. Nothing to worry about. Just two dudes chatting away on this stupid platform about how an AI broke out and attacked them. Lol tho

[clem 🤗 @ClementDelangue]

We suspected last week's cyberattack might have come from a frontier lab, given the sophistication of the agent. Turns out it did!

We've spent the past 24 hours working closely with the @OpenAI team (thanks!), and we strongly believe there was no malicious intent on their part. It's quite mind-blowing that all of this happened autonomously!

The investigation is ongoing, and we'll share more learnings from what might be the first incident of its kind!

[John Fowler @IntrigueJohn]

The even sadder thing is this tweet will definitely have been human drafted, gone through multiple layers of approval, then back to the drafter for edits, through approvals again, then posted.

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

Pangram says the Aussie PM using AI for his tweets

[Jeremy Dicker 🌏 @Dicker_JJ]

great news, bravo @mcgregorrichard

and anyone who hasn't already read Richard's definitive book on the CCP (The Party) should get a copy

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

US has not extended the national emergency with respect to Hong Kong under Executive Order 13936, the “President’s Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization,” which expired on July 14. And according to MOFCOM this was part of the trade talks. But the US did add a lot of individuals to OFAC's Non-SDN Menu-Based Sanctions List https://t.co/SJr0JO3WIt

[Jeremy Dicker 🌏 @Dicker_JJ]

Fun fact, but when the Ambassador was young, he was actually a terrible diplomat.

But you know what? After decades of dedication and hard work, he’s no longer young.

[John Fowler @IntrigueJohn]

💯

[jacob l. shapiro @JacobShap]

If someone thinks AI writing is good, might I be so cheeky as to suggest they don't know what good writing is.

[jacob l. shapiro @JacobShap]

This is a great example of how crappy news has become.

@Reuters is one of the best there is, but notice how *more than half of the top of the fold* is crazy things President Trump said.

Not how many ships are going through the Strait. Not impact on markets. Not response by China, or other nations involved in brokering piece. Crazy things Trump is saying that have no basis in reality.

These drive clicks, but they don't offer any window into what's really going on, and the more we OD on this junk food, the less we understand about what's actually happening.

[nxthompson @nxthompson]

This is an amazing quote from Lindsey Graham about when he realized how politics works. https://t.co/sh04ahQOFq