@michaelgofman Yes, that’s right. I love how puzzles like yours help get a better feel of the different models and temper how much confidence we can put on them.
@michaelgofman Interesting. I tried it using Anthropic's API, and it worked there too. I noticed there that enabling "thinking" jacks up the temperature to full. So, I suspect it uses the extra time to evaluate some lower probability scenarios, which may reduce consistency in final answers.
A frank and productive exchange of views with my counterpart on key issues like expanding the global supply of candy and toys and tightening sanctions against chores.
Grief is not a purely negative emotion. Over time, it becomes bittersweet—sadness is joined by love and gratitude.
Nostalgia is a healthy response to loss. Longing for the past motivates us to appreciate the present and improve the future.
The goal of coping is not to erase pain. It's to gain purpose.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed that the EU is deeply broken. Transshipments to Russia via an out-of-the way place like Kyrgyzstan continue uninterrupted, even after more than two years of this nonsense. The people of Europe deserve better than this. Deep reform is needed...
My kid’s high school just announced a sweeping new cell phone policy for the coming year: “Cell phones and smart watches must be powered off and stored away between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 3:15 p.m.”
Thank you @JonHaidt for kickstarting this national movement!! 🙏🏻
The latest prisoner exchange, where Putin personally greeted the murderers, spies and fraudsters at the airport, is only the latest reminder that Russia is not a state, but a mafia entity masquerading as a state. It is not only part of the organized crime, it literally is organized crime.
You will never ever establish common ground with them, because they are inherently incompatible with the rule-based order and civilization itself. Having bilateral relations is not only a waste of time and resources, but in fact counterproductive with the interests of the West. The earlier this is commonly understood, the earlier this mafia scourge can be treated with in a proper way.
Appeasers say that Russia is a fact. Well, the Soviet Union was a fact, as well, until it got removed from the map and tossed on the trash heap of humanity. It can be done, again, and the road to this outcome leads through the Ukrainian victory.
idk why ppl don't use github more in econ. I use it both for coding and tex/lyx drafts. It's super easy to use if you just use the desktop client, and means you can just never keep old versions around ever again since you can always recover
idk why ppl don't use github more in econ. I use it both for coding and tex/lyx drafts. It's super easy to use if you just use the desktop client, and means you can just never keep old versions around ever again since you can always recover
I'm excited about my first NBER Summer Institute! 📊 My co-author, Ali Sanati, presents our study testing whether public or private equity markets allocate capital more efficiently. The presentation will be live on NBER's YouTube at 1:50 pm EST today (https://t.co/EeSc6t7biD).
The full paper is here: https://t.co/iaxfCAxoiS
Here are a few quick highlights of our study:
US private equity markets grew from $250 billion in 2000 to over $2.8 trillion in the early 2020s, almost eclipsing public equity markets. If markets differ in how efficiently they allocate capital, this trend could have significant economic implications.
- We find significant differences in how efficiently public and private equity markets direct capital to productive uses.
- A dollar invested through public markets generates at least twice the revenue and patent applications compared to private markets.
- Surprisingly, late-stage deals from firms staying private longer drive these patterns, not young firms in early-stage deals.
- We attribute this efficiency gap to two key attributes in public markets: higher information efficiency and more robust governance mechanisms.
- Our study is particularly relevant given the rapid growth of private markets and raises important questions about the economic implications of shifting capital allocation from public to private markets.
We are always thankful for comments and open to debate on this important topic!
I have been reading excellent threads with detailed advice to grad students and young economists on what to do at conferences. This thread tells you about my first experience at the @nberpubs Summer Institute (SI) and my advice. 1/n
Student protesters in my hometown of Gent, Belgium, occupied part of the University with tents last week. The students want the University to cut all ties with 🇮🇱, which has been attacked by a violent terrorist regime.
Gent is about 40 miles from the port of Zeebrugge, still one of the largest entry points for 🇷🇺 LNG into the EU. The sale of LNG funds Putin's invasion of 🇺🇦 even today. Another violent regime. The invasion is responsible for the deaths of 1000s of civilians. The 🇺🇦 border is about 1100 miles away from Gent. You'd think the students would be upset about that, and they would demand that the port in Zeebrugge deny access to ships transporting 🇷🇺 LNG. But I've never seen any student protests about that.
The simple one-size-fits-all model these students are using to make moral judgments is misfiring badly.
The hard truth is that - since Russia invaded Ukraine - the US is the only western country with integrity. The US has basically shut down trade with Russia, while the rest of the world wheels and deals. Here is South Korean trade with Russia. You wouldn't know there's a war...
Without explicitly acknowledging the value of execution, we risk research integrity. The research idea is unambiguously important, but we cannot denigrate and label the craftmanship involved when dealing with complex data as "RA work." We cannot forget that 000s of difficult decisions and turns along the way have shaped a paper into something new and better. #AcademicTwitter @AcademicChatter