ipa

co-founder, writer, documentary, m0m of two

[g0v.tw | 台灣零時政府 @g0vtw]

🚫📶第陸次數位韌性松
​
網路中的節點越多，網路中的拓墣越穩固，數位韌性的專案也一樣，參與者越多，數位韌性就更牢不可破！

一起來做專案，抗焦慮！

活動資訊在下則（1/2）

[ipa @ipa]

#g0vSummit Day 2
#newGeneration
#g0v

[Jeremy Howard @jeremyphoward]

OK everyone's asking me for my take on the OpenAI stuff, so here it is. I have a strong feeling about what's going on, but no internal info so this is just me talking.

The first point to make is that the Dev Day was (IMO) an absolute embarrassment.

[pearlher @pearlher]

上海啥意思啊？ 今天開始抓捕萬聖節cos的人了⋯⋯

這邊才落地，緩和國際關係，那邊就動手抓人啊，🤔️

[Andrew Côté @Andercot]

My Highest Likelihood Explanation on Altman's Departure:

Erosion of senior leadership experience on the OpenAI Board of Directors created a situation where factionalism over the proposed use of a recent breakthrough led to a political takeover.

Over the last few years, board of directors at OpenAI lost a lot of its senior oversight due to conflicts of interest - Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Will Hurd. The only person left with significant leadership experience is Adam D'Angelo.

After Will Hurd left, it was a split vote, 3v3:

The likely factions were Ilya, Sam, Greg vs Adam, Tasha, Helen.

Firing Sam was politics.

It was not over performance, strategic leadership, or vision for the company. Rather, there was contention over the use of a breakthrough that drove a vote between safetyism and deployment speed.

Why this was Factionalism - Sudden Ousting
If this was planned, Sam would not be representing OpenAI at APEC events all week, OpenAI DevDay two weeks ago. If Microsoft knew or was involved, Satya Nadella would not have been on-stage with Sam at Dev Day.

Microsoft claims they didn't have advance knowledge of this - they claim they knew about it one minute in advance. There clearly was not internal alignment on this decision either - @gdb just quit over this.

What was the wedge issue? Just recently at APEC Sam announced he had witnessed the frontier of knowledge being pushed back four times in his experience at OpenAI, and the last time was recently - a couple weeks ago.

Likely Greg and Sam wanted to build and deploy it in earnest, and Ilya didn't. Ilya had become lead of the "Superintelligence Alignment" division earlier this year. I would bet Ilya was the vote that broke the stalemate and led to the departure.

Sam was kicked out over concerns he would move AI forward too fast by deploying a recent breakthrough.

It's unlikely departure was related to anything regarding operations, cash burn, partnership-making ability, and so forth - OpenAI has blank-check status for ability to raise, they have huge cashflow, only a few hundred staff, are beyond doubt.

Most importantly, the suddenness of the departure, lack of communication to Microsoft, and resignation of Greg Brockman all point to this being a sudden move by a board faction.

Likely, the board felt that OpenAI was completely setup - in partnerships, funding, team, and direction, they could afford to push Sam out to regain control of of the direction and pace of roll-out of AI tools without threatening the security of OpenAI.

Whatever the proximate justification behind the lack of being 'candid' - this is likely ultimately a split between safetyism and acceleration.

Explanations that should be discarded
Sam is extremely successful and intelligent, but also has a bulletproof reputation as an upstanding, intentional and pro-social person. He's also a billionaire several times over.

The language used in the OpenAI disclosure, as well as comments by Eric Schmidt, seem to all point that this was a disagreement over intentions behind the use of AI tools, rather than an over-reach of power, monetary conflict of interest, or a personal scandal.

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

One final thought:

Fact-checks after the fact are inherently limited. “A lie is halfway round the world before the truth has got its boots on”.

Forensic, investigative, truth-seeking work should be a proactive part of breaking news coverage, not a reactive add-on afterwards.

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events:

1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion.

2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday.

3. A vertical of power has collapsed.
No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday. It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.

4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.
All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.
Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie.

5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.

6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea.

7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin's regime and Prigozhin faction.
But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!

[Alice Su 蘇奕安 @aliceysu]

One yr ago I moved to Taiwan, right after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ppl here were just starting to discuss whether they might ever face a similar future - and how to prevent it. This report explains why Taiwan has yet to reach a consensus on that question
https://t.co/7Bq1H6PRLZ

[ipa @ipa]

https://t.co/L7ugOdom58

[ipa @ipa]

人類可能再也難以分辨智能 (intelligence) 和智能的假象 (the illusion of intelligence) 的差別。這對要跟 ChatGPT 一起長大的一代，特別是他們的父母，實在會是一個有點期待又有點抖的挑戰。

https://t.co/I2HkGC4en0

[Michal Kosinski @michalkosinski]

1/4 The most recent update to GPT-3 (ChatGPT/davinci-003) seems to be able to impute unobservable mental states (such as beliefs and desires) to others (in humans we would call it the Theory-of-Mind): https://t.co/G9rARHuRaR

[ipa @ipa]

Running large language models like ChatGPT on a single GPU (https://t.co/YFHl0OuyrC)

[@[email protected] @clkao]

Over the next 30 days, I plan on writing about the data industry, startups, and democracy.

I recently signed up for @dickiebush & @Nicolascole77's cohort-based course, @ship30for30 . Here are a few reasons why: (1/n)
🤗🤔🤹🚢

[ipa @ipa]

最近開車上班的路上，改聽 BBC podcast，任職俄國第三大資訊公司的受訪者說她的 team 幾位烏克蘭人都回去打仗了。接著她顫抖著說 'We'll not be able to overcome the shame of being Russian for decades.' https://t.co/SgewNt8d5k

[ipa @ipa]

記得波灣戰爭時，老師開教室電視讓我們看 CNN，隔著主播感覺遙遠。俄烏戰爭15天，我看了15天基輔發出的推文，這實在是一場資訊非常直接的戰爭。早上第一件事常常是看烏克蘭推主說：Still alive.

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️Chornobyl disconnected from power following Russian attack.

According to state nuclear energy company Energoatom, Chornobyl needs electricity to cool down the spent fuel. If heated, radioactive substances can be released into the environment.

[President Biden Archived @POTUS46Archive]

Today, I’m announcing that the United States is targeting a main artery of Russia’s economy.

We are banning all imports of Russian oil and gas.

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: Russia approves list of countries who've taken 'unfriendly actions' against it, including:

- Australia
- Canada
- EU
- Iceland
- Japan
- Monaco
- Montenegro
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Taiwan
- San Marino
- Singapore
- S Korea
- Switzerland
- Ukraine
- UK
- US

[Anders Åslund @anders_aslund]

Suddenly a strong Ukrainian chorus has arisen:
We are dying for Europe, democracy & freedom but you lousy West are afraid of provoking Putin!
The Ukrainians are right. The Western concern about irritating Putin when they are dying is shameless. The West must get serious.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Hold Strong Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦