Irish Election Projections

Projecting seats from polls for the next Dáil election since 2021.

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

For clarity: I won't be posting here anymore while this site is in its current state.

I am on bluesky under my personal name, where I post about polling and other stuff. You can find me there.

Updates and articles will continue on https://t.co/SaUrcPYN7j

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@Connor_DLS Thanks Connor!

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇

https://t.co/JbyzqzSrAM

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

A not-so-brief summary of where we are at heading into the new year in terms of polling, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trending down, an Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats trending up. Featuring analysis for every constituency, read below 👇

https://t.co/JbyzqzSrAM

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@dg2020gal My personal feeling is that there would be benefits to more co-operation and co-ordination but this is just my belief so only take it at that value!

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@dg2020gal If we include Redress the left is 16 seats from a majority (assuming they would want someone from their own ranks to be CC); right now I don't see a plausible way to bridge that gap. They'd need to win more seats

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@LilithRStacey I think there would be enough - 10 voted for the current arrangement and most of them are likely to hold their seats

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@dg2020gal Thanks! They are up on their GE total so in the low-mid 20s but yeah nowhere near the polling peak mid-cycle. By-elections are very unpredictable at this stage, would agree on being wary of overly confident calls this far out

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

oh god

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

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[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@LilithRStacey Sorry, I misread this initially, explanation for FG gain here: https://t.co/I3BvAGbJQa

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@AnSealgaire Yeah it seems a bit counter-intuitive with FG's polling flagging, but FF's is dropping more. FF won a couple of marginals over FG, plus FG missed a few winnable seats in '24 due to bad candidate strategy. So it makes sense to see some switch FF->FG on these numbers

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@LilithRStacey On current numbers FF+FG+whoever is still the most viable for government formation, despite their polling declining somewhat. Of course an election is likely a long way away so plenty of scope for things to change

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@hennessy_ro No problem!

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@hennessy_ro https://t.co/I3BvAGbJQa

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@AnSealgaire Yeah it seems a bit counter-intuitive with FG's polling flagging, but FF's is dropping more. FF won a couple of marginals over FG, plus FG missed a few winnable seats in '24 due to bad candidate strategy. So it makes sense to see some switch FF->FG on these numbers

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@AnSealgaire Yeah it seems a bit counter-intuitive with FG's polling flagging, but FF's is dropping more. FF won a couple of marginals over FG, plus FG missed a few winnable seats in '24 due to bad candidate strategy. So it makes sense to see some switch FF->FG on these numbers

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

@GerardBarry57 Thanks Gerard! Didn't discuss the H-Rs because I don't see much likely to change on that front, but I do agree that were one of them to step aside at any point they will be very well positioned to have one of the family step in

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

Dáil Seat Projections for end of 2025:

Sinn Féin 43 (+4)
Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)
Fine Gael 39 (+1)
Independents 12 (-4)
Social Democrats 15 (+4)
Labour 10 (-1)
Independent Ireland 6 (+2)
PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)
Aontú 3 (+1)
Green Party 0 (-1)
100% Redress 1 (nc)

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

https://t.co/JbyzqzSrAM

[Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj]

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