A full season down. One last series left to call.
Predict the exact NBA Finals Game 1 score to win $500.
Make your call and QRT the outcome
Requirements for entry belowπ
The play:
β’ HL: limit-buy one side just under market (e.g. Spurs G1 @ 0.62), wait to get filled
β’ Once filled, buy the OTHER side on Polymarket (Knicks @ 0.37 + fee)
β’ One side always settles ~$1 β you're hedged. Cost = tiny spread + fees
Volume on both = possible drop on both.
HL π https://t.co/fgCAhf0MDy
PM π https://t.co/UEV5mWKy9N
2 birds, 1 stone for airdrop farmers πͺπ
Hyperliquid just launched Outcomes (prediction markets) β NBA Finals G1, G2 & series winner.
Hedge the SAME game on Hyperliquid + Polymarket and you farm BOTH potential airdrops β near risk-free. π§΅
Polymarket is a legitimate platform and I use it myself. But sponsored influencers mislabeling speculation as arbitrage is a real problem. People follow this, size up, and lose money when the 9% scenario hits.
Be careful.
This is not arbitrage. Let me explain why, with math.
The setup: buy YES on Sinner (73Β’) + Zverev (7.8Β’) + Djokovic (5.8Β’) + Jodar (4.3Β’) = 90.9Β’ total cost. If any of them wins, you collect $1.00. Looks like a free 9Β’ profit.
The problem: this only pays out if one of these
spotted what looks like a 9% arbitrage in the Men's French Open market
if you combine the 4 main favorites:
Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, and Khodar, they only add up to 91% implied probability
buy 100k shares in each β spend $91k total β collect $100k if any of them wins.
thatβs a $9k profit, or roughly 9% return before June 7.
the remaining players share the other 9%. Theoretically possible, but the probability feels close to zero
NFA, but Iβm probably trying it
market:
https://t.co/IGZwsIyAHC
Note what happened with the Sinner post: Sinner lost. Everyone who followed that "arbitrage" on the bookmaker side lost their entire stake on that leg. That is what happens when you call a correlated two-sided bet arbitrage β one side always loses.
Interesting structure on Iran nuclear deal markets right now:
β’ Buy NO on @Polymarket by Jul 31 (~50Β’)
β’ Buy YES on @Kalshi before September (~47Β’)
If deal lands Aug 1βSep 1 window β big profit
All other outcomes β ~breakeven
rade at your own risk π
https://t.co/7SPt7e44kd