irmants

Not given up on crypto. Sports bettor crypto enthuasiast.

[irmants @irmants]

@koeppelmann @gnosispay Just logged in find 0 despite i had funds prior. Refunds are still going?

[irmants @irmants]

107 114 Spurs

[Outcome @Outcomexyz]

A full season down. One last series left to call.

Predict the exact NBA Finals Game 1 score to win $500.

Make your call and QRT the outcome
Requirements for entry below👇

[irmants @irmants]

@Outcomexyz 107 114 Spurs

[irmants @irmants]

The play:
• HL: limit-buy one side just under market (e.g. Spurs G1 @ 0.62), wait to get filled
• Once filled, buy the OTHER side on Polymarket (Knicks @ 0.37 + fee)
• One side always settles ~$1 → you're hedged. Cost = tiny spread + fees
Volume on both = possible drop on both.
HL 👉 https://t.co/fgCAhf0MDy
PM 👉 https://t.co/UEV5mWKy9N

[irmants @irmants]

2 birds, 1 stone for airdrop farmers 🪙🏀

Hyperliquid just launched Outcomes (prediction markets) — NBA Finals G1, G2 & series winner.

Hedge the SAME game on Hyperliquid + Polymarket and you farm BOTH potential airdrops — near risk-free. 🧵

[irmants @irmants]

Looking even greater... Hyperliquid

[irmants @irmants]

looking good

[irmants @irmants]

@Cbb0fe @androolloyd Ok sir give me an example

[irmants @irmants]

@Outcomexyz 0x4A24fd841E74C28309BCa5730B40679e18C5FcA0 Arsenal 2:0

[irmants @irmants]

Arsenal 2 :0

[Outcome @Outcomexyz]

Eleven months of football. One score left to call.

Predict the exact UCL Final result. Win $1,000.

QRT the outcome 👀

[irmants @irmants]

Unlocked a new personality on @Outcomexyz - The Diamond Hands 🏆

[irmants @irmants]

Polymarket is a legitimate platform and I use it myself. But sponsored influencers mislabeling speculation as arbitrage is a real problem. People follow this, size up, and lose money when the 9% scenario hits.

Be careful.

[irmants @irmants]

This is not arbitrage. Let me explain why, with math.

The setup: buy YES on Sinner (73¢) + Zverev (7.8¢) + Djokovic (5.8¢) + Jodar (4.3¢) = 90.9¢ total cost. If any of them wins, you collect $1.00. Looks like a free 9¢ profit.

The problem: this only pays out if one of these

[Mikita @mikita_crypto]

spotted what looks like a 9% arbitrage in the Men's French Open market

if you combine the 4 main favorites:
Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, and Khodar, they only add up to 91% implied probability

buy 100k shares in each → spend $91k total → collect $100k if any of them wins.

that’s a $9k profit, or roughly 9% return before June 7.

the remaining players share the other 9%. Theoretically possible, but the probability feels close to zero

NFA, but I’m probably trying it

market:
https://t.co/IGZwsIyAHC

[irmants @irmants]

Note what happened with the Sinner post: Sinner lost. Everyone who followed that "arbitrage" on the bookmaker side lost their entire stake on that leg. That is what happens when you call a correlated two-sided bet arbitrage — one side always loses.

[irmants @irmants]

@Polymarket @Kalshi https://t.co/3LlnAQrOL2

[irmants @irmants]

Interesting structure on Iran nuclear deal markets right now:

• Buy NO on @Polymarket by Jul 31 (~50¢)
• Buy YES on @Kalshi before September (~47¢)
If deal lands Aug 1–Sep 1 window → big profit
All other outcomes → ~breakeven
rade at your own risk 👇
https://t.co/7SPt7e44kd

[irmants @irmants]

@mikita_crypto @PolymarketSport @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade you clearly dont understand what arbitrage is...