Ironmaker001

[Canadian Prepper @PrepperCanadian]

The US did not suddenly wake up and discover a longstanding shortage and decide to publicly cite it as the reason for suspending operations. As usual, that explanation is completely inconsistent with the massive airlift of equipment into the region.

They are keeping forces fresh for the next rung on the escalation ladder.

That's it, thats all.

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

A new credit crisis is slowly developing ..

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

🚨 China imported over 60% of world gold mine production (outside China) in June

So, somebody is buying the dip in a big way

[Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon]

While you’re focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb Strait closures, I took a gander at what India (and by extension the US) is up to in the Strait of Malacca.

Looks like we’ve got ourselves World War Chokepoint underway (link in comments):

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

😬 Electric buses being charged by diesel generators (BBC)

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

@jbulltard1 And the Kimmy vaporizes Korea and Japan just to not feel left out

The Russians hit all of NATO out of fear of being next

Dangerous road

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

بطريقة غير مباشرة، العراق قدم للعالم شركة شل وشركة النفط النرويجية "إكوينور"

إيران قدمت للعالم شركة بي بي "شركة النفط البريطانية"

إندونيسيا قدمت رويال دتش كشركة نفط ... (كانت أصلا شركة زراعية هولندية)

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's escape route from Hormuz is now being REROUTED again.

After shifting exports to Yanbu and Bab el Mandeb, Houthi attacks are forcing Asian cargoes north through Suez and then around Africa.

A Yanbu to Taiwan voyage jumps from
19 to 48 days.

Fuel costs rise from $1.26M to $2.87M, plus about $1M in Suez fees.

The oil still moves, but far slower and more expensively.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

🔴The number of fake news stories and videos circulating tonight about an alleged attack on the Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia is unbelievable.

🔴Don’t be an idiot—stop sharing videos you haven’t verified as accurate.

Most of the videos being shared are:

1⃣From a fire at a storage facility in Dammam on May 11

2⃣From a fire following an attack on an Aramco oil storage tank in Jeddah in 2022

3⃣From a fire in Iraq (the video even has Arabic text stating it is from Iraq)

These clips have nothing to do with Aramco or the Jazan refinery.

Here is the original link to the Dammam fire that is being falsely presented tonight as a Houthi attack on the Jazan refinery:

https://t.co/QjW30sSXw8

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump is essentially warning Xi and Putin to stay on the sidelines

Strong indication big escalation is coming soon

Trump threatening two great powers with nuclear weapons shows just how dangerous is this Escalation Trap

Brace for impact!

[AJ Jaff @aj_geo_analysis]

𝗔𝗻 𝗜𝗥𝗚𝗖 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗪𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗚𝗼 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗛𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻'𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱.

For months Iran's strikes were reciprocal and narrow. Answer a US strike, hit a US base, stop. This week the pattern broke in four measurable ways. Look at what shifted. Pls consider retweeting and bookmarking this tweet to help raise signal, not noise!!

𝗢𝗻𝗲. 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱

Earlier waves stayed on military addresses.

This week Iran hit a Kuwaiti desalination and power plant, numerous @Amazon AI centre in Bahrain it said supports US targeting, and the Kuwait airport's radar and fuel.

The list moved from purely military to the enabling infrastructure around it and this is the catastrophic war starting now.

𝗧𝘄𝗼. 𝗻𝗼 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗺𝗽𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲

For the first time since the spring and failed MOU, Iran struck a US facility on Saudi soil.

The message is that hosting American operations now carries a cost regardless of which flag flies over the base.

Attribution as participation, applied in the field.

𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲. 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸

Kuwait attributes most of the strikes on its soil to Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, NOT to missiles fired from Iran.

That is deliberate.

It gives Tehran reach AND deniability at the same time, the plausible-deniability model I have written about, it is now operational as predicted.

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗿. 𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗱, 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀

The strikes are no longer one-off answers.

They are numbered waves under named operations, sustained night after night.

That is a campaign structure, not a reflex.

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗴𝗼, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁

Here is a low-probability, high-impact possibility worth watching.

Bahrain and Kuwait are the softest point in the Gulf defence strategy. Kuwait specifically is publicly split on Iran, its defences are thin, and the militia layer is already operating on its territory.

If Tehran judged that the appetite for a 1991-style coalition to reverse an incursion no longer exists, Iraqi Shia militias COULD push to seize Kuwaiti ground under deniable cover, framed as an Iraqi claim rather than an Iranian one.

It would pressure the Gulf AND Washington at once, without Iran ever firing openly.

I am predicting this. I am marking it as the kind of move this new posture makes thinkable, and the tripwire to watch is any militia activity that crosses from strikes into holding territory.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱

The shift is real.

Wider targets, no exempt states, deniable proxies, sustained campaign structure.

Iran stopped answering and started operating.

Watch the ground, not just the sky.

The day a proxy holds a checkpoint instead of hitting one, the war has entered a phase nobody is ready for.

If this gave you signal worth keeping, please bookmark, retweet and like. Consider following if you find my work worthy.

𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

@blockproofmacro At some point this will backfire spectacularly

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

This is exactly how the Red Sea crisis started

The houthis hit a ship

Everybody said it was a lucky fluke

They said that Baba ganoush was open

And then the houthis kept hitting ships

And pretty soon nobody had any baba ganoush

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 MAJOR US MILITARY AIRLIFT SURGE

The largest movement of U.S. C-17 and C-5M cargo aircraft from Europe toward the Middle East in a 24-hour period since March is reportedly underway.

These aircraft are used to transport troops, ammunition, vehicles, heavy equipment, and critical supplies over long distances.

A surge of this scale could indicate that Washington is reinforcing its regional forces as tensions with Iran rise and threats to US bases increase.

Something significant may be developing.
What I just wrote in my latest article can just become bigger after this weekend
https://t.co/iMoK4qJFb3

Source: WarFront Witness / @MarioNawfal

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@FinanceLancelot @SantiagoAuFund They were not going to see any monies anyway. Nothing to worry about from their point of view.

Similar playbook with Russian monies.

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@JodyDahrouge @J_Wise_geology It is a war of attrition brother. In a numbers game, Ukraine will unlikely fight another war for another generation after this one aka a million Ukrainian casualties is a bigger proportion of their population than 1 million Russian casualties.

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@J_Wise_geology @RokkDoc If there wasn't any oil in the ME, there would not be as many conflicts.

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@J_Wise_geology @RokkDoc All these wars in the ME is about resources and money. I don't buy the religious BS.

You have religious zealots/extremists in all religions.

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@RokkDoc @J_Wise_geology Hopefully it doesn't go that far.

[Ironmaker001 @ironmaker001]

@RokkDoc @J_Wise_geology He has been in that game for a very long time.

His analysis has been right so far.

You can already foresee potential mass migration from the ME if power and desalination plants are targeted. Kuwait seems to be the most vulnerable in that respect.