I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
— Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)
— A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused.
— In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.”
— In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety.
— In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community.
— The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority.
— Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
Anthropic has been publicly forced to bend the knee to the US government. The ban on Fable and Mythos reads like censorship, and the market will read it as the TAM of the frontier labs collapsing. Instead, I read this as the opposite, as an acceleration event...
The government MUST have first access, because this is The Great Game, the game of nations over the most powerful technology ever discovered, and a technological edge of 30 to 60 days is worth everything.
It's the same edge the labs already exploit internally. You build your next model with your unreleased frontier tech, never with the public one. That private head start is what keeps you accelerating ahead of the competition or at least in line with them.
The US needs that exact advantage now. Before the public, and before the Chinese open source models can copy it. They have no choice. They cannot allow their own technology to be turned against them.
What's being negotiated, in the usual outrageous, hard-ball Trump manner, is the new arrangement:
Anthropic and OpenAI are free market operators and state vassals at the same time. Nobody wants to curtail their growth. The Gov just wants to be Customer Number 1 with privileged access.
This is the East India Company all over again. A private enterprise left free to grow rich and dominant, granted protection and a clear run by the state, on the unspoken condition that it serves the crown's strategic interests first. That charter was the price of the monopoly.
It also sends a message to China and everyone else that US AI is now so advanced the state itself has to control it. They won't, not yet anyway. They just want privileged access, the rest is posturing.
And Anthropic will bend the knee, very soon...
The hidden outcome is the one that matters. The AI firms are now near-explicitly too big to fail, which means the debt funding the capex buildout comes with an implicit state guarantee.
That accelerates the build-out of intelligence. It doesn't curtail it...
Open source accelerates too, because going open ensures no state can intervene in the model itself. Though the same Great Game rules apply there, and the Chinese state will take its own privileged access first.
So the market may wobble, convinced the TAM of AI just collapsed.
The real outcome is an acceleration of intelligence, and a Super Cycle that keeps running.
Thanks for posting this, we tend to forget what it takes to go on camera, in RPs case with 100s+ of hours of strong opinions, content and data-backed guidance. Of course, not everything can work out as predicted, in the timeframe predicted, which he regularly calls out. I speak on behalf of many fellow RVers that we truly appreciate his work. BTW Fun photo considering we’ve never seen this camera perspective before - familiar yet even more personal. Keep up the great work.
Community x Culture
The @Michelin3xplore U.S. Alpha Club got together at the @Sakazukinft event to celebrate Community and Culture at Suntory in NYC!
🗽 The U.S. Michelin community is strong and growing. Creating excellence and experiences thats the Michelin way
Join us!IYKYK
Interesting use case for sure. Tokenizing assets like these enables more transparency, eg meta data updates when barrels move, inspections; easy transactions for liquidity eg trading in and out to match investor profiles and can be burned when bottled. Dvin doing interesting things with wine @dVINLabs
Today, we have successfully completed the Fairdrop portion of our @galileoprotocol airdrop campaign. To sum everything up, we distributed a total of 150,000 $LEOX to our partner NFT communities and our Nebula holders (100k / 50k, respectively), which equates to a total of 7,640 wallets. This was a completely free airdrop to our community and the communities that have paved the way for NFTs within the ETH ecosystem. The distribution for each wallet is as follows:
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The CommuNFTies include:
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We are grateful to all of our community members and advocates. And, we salute the communities within the ETH ecosystem that embody luxury, prestige, and true web3 community. We hope to get people excited about what we are building, and remind them that community is at the core of all we do.
Let’s Grow🔥🔥
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