Ismael Diamoutene

Founder and CEO of SharpeEdge,
an alternative investment firm specializing in crypto and fiat currencies.
Research:

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

Hi, I'm Ismael, founder and CEO of SharpeEdge (https://t.co/rX5Y8tSyQb). Here's a quick intro to what this account is ⬇️

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**6/**
Full model — presidential probabilities, the four government scenarios, the EMBI event study, and every stated limitation:
https://t.co/fZUNt1Qn5O

We publish original research on forex and crypto markets. Subscribe to get the next one directly: https://t.co/wUT6umG9p4

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**1/**
On October 4 2026, Brazilians will vote for their next president (runoff Oct 25 if needed),governors, two senators, a federal deputy and a state or district deputy. We estimated and analyzed the potential outcomes of this election and their implications for the brazilian real.

Thread 🧵

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**5/**
Limitations of our study: five elections provide little precision on historical polling error, the error band is an explicit assumption, not a derived fact. The scenario probabilities are obtain from a mix of our own judgment and historical data from BRazil and other countries, they are therefore very subjective. an alternative coding drops the base case to ~35%.
This is a probability framework for a conditional shock, not an unconditional currency forecast.

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**6/**
Full report — methodology, every robustness check, and all the caveats we ran against ourselves — here: https://t.co/qv29HJbeXB

We publish original research on forex and crypto markets. Subscribe to get the next one directly: https://t.co/wUT6umG9p4

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**1/**
Do climate disasters weaken emerging-market currencies?

We tested this directly — 21 major EM currencies, ~8,000 country-months, Jan 1994–Dec 2025, 1,850 disaster-months. The data says otherwise.

Thread 🧵

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**5/**
Leading interpretation (a hypothesis, not directly proven): for large, diversified economies, post-disaster aid, remittances, and official financing likely outweigh trade losses at these disaster sizes and the shock is proportionally small relative to the whole economy's capital flows.

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**6/**
Full report — all four tests, every network, every number: https://t.co/j4QuJai6f7

We publish original research on forex and crypto markets. Subscribe to get the next one directly: https://t.co/wUT6umG9p4

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**1/**
DePIN networks all face the same design question: pay providers in the native token, or in dollar-pegged credit? Does the choice actually change outcomes?

We tested it across Helium, Render, Filecoin, and Akash.

Thread 🧵

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**5/**
Limitations of our study: 4 networks chosen for variation, not representativeness; several events bundled multiple simultaneous changes (e.g. Render's Solana migration incentives alongside its BME launch), so this isn't clean causal proof for any single network.

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**6/**
Full study — all four episodes, every channel tested, and the full caveats: https://t.co/bGWjr7i1TV

We publish original research on forex and crypto markets. Subscribe to get the next one directly: https://t.co/wUT6umG9p4

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**1/**
When a credible "quantum computers could break Bitcoin" story hits the news, does the market actually react — and if so, where?
We tested this across 4 quantum-risk episodes since January 2025.
There was a narrative of quantum fear moving bitcoin price, but the data invalidates it and reveals a different story.

Thread 🧵

[Ismael Diamoutene @ismdiam]

**5/**
Our positioning, stated carefully: the ETF-flow response is unlikely to be pure noise, and quantum-risk narratives are a credible candidate driver — but this is not proof of a generalized quantum-risk repricing across Bitcoin market structure. The data we have is enough to flag a
pattern but not enough to establish a mechanism.