Built a trading system 4 years ago.
Ran it alone for 3 years — Donchian trend-following, real money, good results.
The lesson: no market-timing strategy lasts forever. Every right call is a loan the market eventually collects.
So I'm building one that doesn't need to be right.
btc dropped about 7% this week. leveraged longs got liquidated across the board.
running the Ithora delta-neutral strategy, i didn’t even notice. same as when it ran from 64k to 86k before that. didn’t notice that either.
spot down, short up, funding lands every hour.
carry is a boring, common strategy. no thrill. but it’s one of the few ways to keep money neutral and non-custodial and still earn something. that’s why it’s the first thing Ithora runs.
not a trade. a position that doesn’t care where price goes.
the philosophy behind all of it: don’t stress.
Testing Ithora with my own small stack.
funding lands every hour. the chart is earnings only — flat where i had no position, rising where i did.
$0.54 this month. the position card shows −$0.04 because entry fees take about a week to pay back. that's what carry actually looks like.
i thought the calculator was the hard part. it wasn’t.
connecting a real account, moving USDC, and making the first carry entry feel safe took a lot longer.
that’s what i’ve been working on.
landing's up: https://t.co/Hq5ynAJ6gb
the mark assembles on the wordmark line, then gets out of the way.
two doors underneath. the calculator's live, the bot behind the other one is still being built.
doesn't count basis moving against you, or getting liquidated. funding vs cost only.
and it predicts nothing on purpose. annualizing the current rate missed the realized 30-day number by ~5 apr points last year. so i measure instead.
https://t.co/lsd6W3U7WR
ran every 90-day btc carry hold that's actually settled.
went badly: +0.9%
typical: +5.4%
went well: +14.9%
ended at a loss: 2.2% of them
that last line is the number i'd want before putting money in.
and it depends entirely on how long you hold.
7 days: 75% of windows lose to fees
30 days: 12.8%
90 days: 2.1%
the cost is fixed, the funding isn't. breakeven sits around 8 days right now.
built a carry calculator, turns out i use it for one thing: round trip cost. fees + slippage, all four legs, before i'm in
skipped this math for years bc tedious. it decides everything
https://t.co/lsd6W3U7WR
calculator is up: https://t.co/M1ePdLKpR5
got tired of funding sites showing raw APR like fees don't exist. carry is 4 fills in and out, each with its own fee and slippage.
so I just subtract all of it. on short holds the number often comes out negative. that's kind of the point.