Itô

The ETF layer for prediction and compute markets | Trade Thematic + market-neutral baskets.

Backed by @alliance.

[Itô @itomarkets]

Introducing the new Itô Indexes:

Utilities
Energy
Agriculture
Compute

E2E infrastructure with delivery

With the Compute Index we are able to provide fixed rate compute rentals with no lock in to interested AI Companies

We've just brought on the first company on contract

[Itô @itomarkets]

This is the thesis that we are taking as well as other great platforms like @adjacent___

[sysls @systematicls]

This is such an underrated view.

It feels inevitable to me that non-expiring indices that can capture "directional" moves in one "basket of reality" will end up dominating prediction markets.

It is generally hard for an average consumer to roll event contracts into expressing a long term view that "AI Progress will accelerate".

But if you have an "AI Progress" index, that is significantly more intuitive to hold and manage.

[cogsec @affaan]

he's absolutely right

we're building inference, electricity and energy baskets composed of the relevant markets as the underliers, dynamically hedged and rebalanced to satisfy the explosion of demand thats already here and will be coming in hordes in the short to mid horizon

[Itô @itomarkets]

https://t.co/IDZm2Qn7vU

[Itô @itomarkets]

With the Energy Index we are able to hedge the cost of powering and moving the physical economy in one basket - natural gas, gasoline and Brent crude.

If any of the indices interest you, email [email protected] for access.

[Itô @itomarkets]

Introducing the new Itô Indexes:

Utilities
Energy
Agriculture
Compute

E2E infrastructure with delivery

With the Compute Index we are able to provide fixed rate compute rentals with no lock in to interested AI Companies

We've just brought on the first company on contract

[Itô @itomarkets]

With the Electricity Index we are able to provide fixed rate contracts on NYISO, PJM West and ERCOT regional prices anchored to the national average.

Lock in your power costs with no lock in flexibility.

[Itô @itomarkets]

update - no more underscore

in the big leagues now

[Itô @itomarkets]

Thanks to @SamTinnerholm for providing some of the data. See Data sources for usage guidelines and licensing.

[Itô @itomarkets]

Itô Research Grant - free API access to our institutional data plane

* L2 orderbooks: Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid
* Basket indices: NAV, weights, returns
* Algorithmic Backtesting: hosted backtesting

For academics, quants and researchers

Apply: https://t.co/2optl9rgc5

[Itô @itomarkets]

This is an excellent list - thank you, @lzminsky, for the shoutout.

Please also check out Lauris’ research; he’s doing amazing work.

We are excited to work in the structuring of prediction markets and to continue our mission to make prediction markets institutional-grade, if you are interested check out our research!

[Lauris @lzminsky]

If we’re pointing at track record / pedigree x Execution x Thesis, I would recommend looking into these teams

- @pumpcade
- @itomarkets
- @DaedalusRsch
- @functionspaceHQ
- @Polysights
- @ForecastFDN
- @gondorfi

Some target similar problems but are sufficiently differentiated. First three are especially going for something more OOTB.

NB: Friends with several of them so I am biased

[Itô @itomarkets]

This is exactly why we build baskets and price them at NAV. Structuring prediction markets this way lets the underlying markets keep their idiosyncratic beta profile while removing their idiosyncratic duration, which opens up new high-beta strategies.

[good @thenarrator]

one of the hardest unsolved problems in prediction markets: turning them into insurance, yield, or lending products when the underlying risk is fundamentally idiosyncratic

the primitive is powerful but the risk profile is what makes it nearly impossible to financialize with existing frameworks

[Itô @itomarkets]

We will soon release the second version of the causal graph - a do calculus analysis of prediction markets.

[Lauris @lzminsky]

a few weeks ago @itomarkets made a nice repo for visualizing PM data.

Made a fork with, you guessed it, @Kalshi data

Thanks @absurdistphil and @affaan for the initial build. The 3D globe looks awesome.

Daily refresh + will bundle with all of the other releases

https://t.co/bKMvnKOjyS

[Itô @itomarkets]

https://t.co/dn4g9FNgVJ

[Lauris @lzminsky]

new levels of dashboard maxxing thank you @itomarkets

[Itô @itomarkets]

@sanlsrni That's awesome! I suppose great minds think alike and came to similar mediums to convey the information, it's a great way to represent and show the information behind event contracts.

[Itô @itomarkets]

So cool to see things being built on our Polymarket Universe GDP public repo!

On that note we are relaunching the Itô technology baskets - revised! [WIP + subject to change]

ITO-T1 → ITO Moat Index

ITO-T2 → ITO AI Supply Chain Hedge

ITO-T1B → ITO AI Capex Tail Hedge

[Saneel @sanlsrni]

Today, I'm launching the Eternal Atlas (https://t.co/q32D7xQYbg).

The Atlas is a catalogue of assets and institutions that cannot be replaced by AI and will compound both culturally and economically for years to come.

Permanence is the rarest asset class.

[Itô @itomarkets]

Link to the repo -> https://t.co/o1Nj0Wj2rp

made by @absurdistphil

[Itô @itomarkets]

Institutional Thematic Baskets + Custom Baskets w/ Deployed Strategies

Built for:

- CFOs / treasurers carrying AI vendor + input-cost risk on the balance sheet
- Allocators hunting thematic AI hedges
- Funds wanting custom market-neutral books on our infra

DMs open.