Dr. Toghrul Aliyev

Stocks/crypto researcher using fundamental/ technical analysis to develop investment ideas and trading setups. Former doc.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

I don't own any Bitcoin right now and here's why.

Recently, I started pulling every piece of data I could find on this cycle. Every on-chain metric, every cost basis band, every harmonic, every liquidation cluster, every CME gap, every macro input. The question was simple. Was the $60,132 print on February 6 the bottom?

No.

1. The Fed is trapped. Core PCE stalled at 2.97% and is tilting higher as tariffs and the Strait of Hormuz shock bleed into services. Cutting further risks a 1970s-style credibility crisis. Not cutting accelerates a labor market that averaged minus 8,000 jobs per month across the back half of 2025, with AI-attributed layoffs hitting 25% of March cuts, the highest share on record.

2. The yen carry trade that funded the 2024 and 2025 rally is unwinding as the BOJ grinds toward 1%, and a single 0.25% hike in August 2024 already took $600 billion out of crypto. Midterm years have never closed green for Bitcoin.

3. Long-term holder MVRV sits at 1.6 when cyclical bottoms print between 0.6 and 0.8.

4. AVIV reads 0.95 against a historical bottom range of 0.37 to 0.55.

5. Retail is still in profit when prior lows required them to be down 42% to 55%.

6. Supply in profit and supply in loss have not crossed.

7. Seller Exhaustion reads more than double the bottom range.

8. Puell sits at 0.75 when miners capitulate between 0.3 and 0.5.

Nothing that has ever marked a real low is even close to firing.

9. Realized price, the 300WMA, power law support, and the MVRV minus-one band all converge between $50,000 and $55,000. The denser cluster sits between $40,000 and $50,000, where the macro golden pocket, the 200WMA minus 30%, Balanced Price, and a shark harmonic all land.

The full report, including the DCA entry plan and a short trade, is in the Financial 6-Pack.

https://t.co/D7fJHOExct

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Current portfolio (approx percentages)

1. $OSCR 55%
2. $MSTR 10%
3. solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 10%
4. $DUOL 10%
5. $PLTR 10%
6. $COIN 5%

I will continue lowering my Oscar exposure drastically. Not because I'm bearish, but as I said, crypto is the faster horse now.

The goal is to have 20% in Strategy, 20% in Solana, and 10% in Coinbase.

Not sure if I'm going to put anything else into crypto. Hyperliquid was the perfect trade, but I missed it. My limit buy order was at $20, but the lowest point it reached was $20.45. After that, it just kept going up, and I never like buying the top, whatever asset it is. I stopped doing that.

Zcash, basically the same thing. Predicted the drop and multiple local tops, but I did not expect it to be this strong.

IMHO, the simpler the portfolio, the better.

And yes... Yes... I'm not buying Bitcoin. How shocking.

The reason is that the whole market moves with it anyway. It just depends on what you buy and when. For example, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin until 2021, but then for 5 years, it has been underperforming.

If you are risk-averse, then just buy Bitcoin and chill.

I'm ok with taking extra risk and potentially underperforming Bitcoin for some time (for now, it doesn't look like it), to get a much bigger return in the long run.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

The first batch of $MSTR, $SOL, and $COIN will be deployed today.

Selling $NAUT, $HIVE, and $NOW to simplify the portfolio.

The first two were small-risk, long-term bets. They performed extremely poorly, especially NAUT

The thesis with ServiceNow has not changed, it's just that there are much faster horses out there, other than that, it's still undervalued, and still exceptional.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

I'm dcaing into crypto, mainly $MSTR, $COIN, $SOL, $BTC. The aim is to build the full port in the next 30 days.

Sitting in a short position, although quite small, is just not my cup of tea at the moment.

I've made incredible progress this year, doubling my port shorting everything I can see during the local tops, most publicly, and losing it is not what I want, though I may agree that closing the short at resistance is not ideal.

However, historically, during bull markets, when Bitcoin reaches the 50WMA, it typically consolidates briefly before pushing through.

The only time it wasn't like that was in July 2015. Every other time, the average move was ~50% in 60-90 days.

Plus, it's in the second, bigger Wyckoff accumulation. The smaller one basically completed successfully on this move.

1. Phase A

- PS: 21 Nov 2025, low 80,620, 2.6x vol, first absorption of the decline
- SC: 5–6 Feb 2026, low 60,133, 78.8k then 67.5k contracts (4.0x / 3.0x), 6 Feb closed +12% off the low, the climax
- AR: 8 Feb, 72,241, automatic rally, sets the first range ceiling
- ST: 24 Feb, 62,527 on 1.0x vol, held above the climax low, Phase A complete

2. Phase B

- Mar–May chop, range widened to 82,814 on 6 May (15% above the AR)

Phase C

- SPRING: 1 Jul, low 57,749, 4% under the ice, 1.4x vol, closed back at 59,983 the same day, never revisited
- TEST: 15–16 Aug, 62,667, higher low on 0.25x / 0.40x vol, supply is gone

Phase D (NOW)

- SOS: 19–21 Aug, +23% in 3 days on 3.3x / 2.9x / 3.2x vol, jumped the minor creek
- Cleared every high in the base except the range top

What's likely going to happen

A close above 82,814, then a BU/LPS back-up into ~73–76k on falling volume that makes a higher low

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Crypto has bottomed.

Closing my 3% risk $BTC short early at a ~1.5% loss.

No need to marry a thesis.

Shorts are f***ed.

I’m a bull now.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$BTC

Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio has exited the low-risk region, which historically has marked cycle bottoms.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$RDDT Share Price Corridor

One of the most underappreciated stocks in the market for no apparent reason.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$OSCR

Oscar still can't push through 0.886

Once it does, bye-bye, bears, and hello 40s

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$PURR

Is it that simple?

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$BTC

3 harmonics of interest appeared on the chart

1. Bullish Alt Bat, which completes around $70K
2. Bearish Deep Butterfly, which completes around $81,500
3. Bearish Bat, which completes around $79,117

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$BTC Shorted

If this is the 2019 and 2022-style fake pump, then we go down from here.

If not, then we should at least retrace toward 70-71K before another leg up.

Either way, Bitcoin reaching $86K is just unlikely here to me.

3% risk.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Btw guys, I’m not 100% sure. MMs can easily drop this below $60K.

I’m sidelined for now, thinking of when to enter.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Changing my name to this for 24 hours as promised.

It was the most liked one

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Okay, with this type of move, I'm now 90% sure the bottom is in, and that I was wrong to think we'd go lower.

This doesn't look like a bull trap to me anymore.

It looks like the typical aggressive Bitcoin move off a bottom, the same as January 2023, the same as after COVID, the same as December 2018.

Instead of being a stubborn idiot who can't pivot, you have to do what Bruce Lee said and be like water. You adapt. You change your thesis when you are wrong.

That's what I did recently on $OSCR. I had limit orders sitting at $9 and below, and the thing bottomed at $10. So I pivoted at $15 and more than doubled my money in a month.

The ones who lose are the ones who are never ready to change their stance. My short position hit a stop loss and I lost 4% of my portfolio. Not an issue, since I've basically doubled the portfolio during the bear market, but still, losing money is losing money. It's never nice.

My previous huge short from 78K got also stopped, I closed 70% of it, with the last tranche at $57K, so this was 30% that hit a slight profit stop loss at $77K with an average entry at $78,550.

The longs I had have also been closed if you remember, so right now my exposure to crypto space is 0.

You all know I've been bearish since November, and I called every local top at 98K, 83K, and plenty of the smaller moves in between, plus $ZEC, $ETH, $SOL, $MSTR, and a lot of other tickers.

But this I did not expect at all.

It's strange to me that Bitcoin did exactly what it was supposed to do for years, including the 2025 top that melted bull faces for ten months, and now it suddenly decides to break the pattern. Why now? Why not in May, or June, or even July?

Was it really that simple, that most indicators, on-chain included, not all, but most, are obsolete, and the only two things worth watching were the 200WMA and the power law?

And if the pattern is broken, does that mean the 2029 top comes earlier and runs much higher? Or we could consider this as the typical pattern because we dropped to the 200WMA as always and then pumped? So many questions.

The way I see it, bears, myself included, most of us anyway, were too focused on pattern matching.

Look at the price. Sure, it dropped 32% below the 200WMA every time, but each of those was basically a quick wick. What Bitcoin actually did was ride the 200WMA for a long stretch before jumping back up, which is exactly what it just did.

On top of that, why I chose to ignore Power Law is a question on its own. Calling 60K the absolute bottom when we were trading at $107K, and then, when we reached it, I started thinking we would go lower? There's a lot to learn from these mistakes. Analyzing my mistakes helped me a ton throughout the bear market and helped me catch incredible moves on $DUOL, $PLTR, $OSCR, and others. However, you will always make mistakes, and the best thing one can do is, instead of ignoring them, learn from them.

By the way, this no longer looks like a UTAD in Wyckoff redistribution. It looks like Phase E of a Wyckoff accumulation.

This kind of run can last far longer than most expect, and the bears will keep thinking it should go down, it should go down, and each time it goes higher and higher and higher. The same way it melted bull faces since the start of the year going down is the same way it will melt bear faces now going up.

I need to dig in a bit more and look around, so to speak, but it looks like we're opening positions in crypto, from $MSTR, $BTC, and $SOL to $CRCL, $COIN, $HYPE, and plenty of other tickers. Extreme diversification is never good, so the job is finding the best of the bunch.

The question is when: now, or do we wait for a slight retracement? And if that retracement happens, for example, once it hits the 50WMA, how low will it likely drop? Will there even be a solid retracement, or are we just going to go up in steps? Up, consolidate, up, consolidate, up, consolidate?

IMHO, we should drop to at least $70K to $71K before another leg up. Anyways, so many things to look into.

@ZynxBTC, I was wrong, and you were right. $57K was the bottom. Looks like you'll have another bull in your corner soon.

Whoever else said that $60K was the bottom was right, too.

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul1]

$BTC

Well, well, well

Bearish RSI and MACD divergences are here now

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$BTC

Well, well, well

Bearish RSI and MACD divergences are here now

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

Sure, $BTC is going higher.

Sure, Grandpa

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul1]

$BTC The Matrix Effect

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul]

$BTC The Matrix Effect

[Dr. Toghrul Aliyev @itsToghrul1]

$ASTER Long closed.

Doubt it's going to reach that high

Was a waste of time, tbh, holding it. 2 months for such a minuscule 1R return. Not a good entry.

Still, profit is profit, so who cares