Arnya

Degen at @Polymarket

[Arnya @itsarnya]

Built myself a dashboard for trading temperature markets on Polymarket.

What it does:
- 29 cities worldwide on one screen
- temperature peak forecast from 3 models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON) with confidence spread
- live station observations from airport METARs in real time
- current market prices for all buckets shown directly on each card
- your positions & P&L per city (just paste your wallet)
- countdown to peak + highlights markets closing soon
- one-click access to Polymarket, Wunderground & Meteoblue for every city
- reference clock - see all peaks in your local timezone

Use it myself daily. If anyone wants it - happy to host it for free.

Worth releasing? 👇

[exsiway @exsiway_]

$CLAN is one of those ideas I want to work

@fomo has clans, groups of traders with public pnl. clan[.]tech makes every clan a tradable key: hold it and you're inside their private chat, and you earn from every trade that runs through that key

you're buying your way into a winning group chat

the base is already there. 101 clans, 1k+ traders, 330k+ trades between them over the last 30 days. top clan is up 3.3m.

clan[.]tech didn't bootstrap any of it, it plugged into a place where people already sit, and it did that well

each key is its own market, so switching them on means 101 markets at once, not one. fees split evenly across the clan, so the members are paid to keep the chat worth paying for

launched an hour ago. keys aren't on yet, every clan still reads unclaimed, so right now you're buying the thesis and not the product

if the keys go live and the good clans get bid, this is the first thing on this chain worth holding past the week

whether you buy up here is your call. I'm not talking anyone into it, just saying the product is real

dev @fiatphobia

ca: 0xcebc0cfbc5dd0893a9e3b9d0f75b211ddf5934a0

[Arnya @itsarnya]

$O1DOLL

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@o1_exchange Maskot?

0xb200000000000000000000a061ba52ee15e9a001

[votesa @votesa]

so the market read this as $INDEX coded?

no way you guys needed an almost direct confirmation from vlad to realize “meme coin holders get stock tokens airdropped to them” was not a random example

anyway, homework was there:

1. https://t.co/UQXxChobZt

2. https://t.co/NKVjX4OVzs

3. https://t.co/nuLjCwEtxQ

4. https://t.co/rXAXzkMi03

also found one more interesting $INDEX thing that nobody is talking about yet.

will post it soon

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@votesa Good bet Danya

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@shtanga0x Dublin, Ireland is good for VPS

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@Airdrop_Sheriff @Polymarket GJ bro!

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@0xVishnya @KASTxyz @raagulanpathy @KASTxyz 12% for ATM withdrawal in Europe, best card 🔥🔥🔥

[𝗫𝗮𝘃𝗲 🇦🇺 @WonderbreadMMA]

The last thing a line of coke sees

[cryppi / perpdexlist @cryppimagic]

perps? you lose. predictions? you lose. what now?

worth looking at delta-neutral strategies with ±20% monthly returns

leg 1 - buy shares on Polymarket
leg 2 - long/short on PM perps

if you're interested, drop a comment and maybe i'll do a breakdown

[Arnya @itsarnya]

Rh meta

[votesa @votesa]

what i’m holding on robinhood chain rn

$CASHCAT
0x020bfc650a365f8bb26819deaabf3e21291018b4

eth has PEPE. sol has WIF. robinhood has CASHCAT.

first real runner, followed by vlad tenev (rh ceo), main liquidity magnet so far. simple as that.

$INDEX
0x56910d4409f3a0c78c64dd8d0545ff0705389870

the cleaner “memes meet rwa” play imo.

3% trade tax buys tokenized stocks on robinhood chain and sends them to holders every 15 minutes.

weird enough to fit the chain, simple enough for people to understand. also funny seeing arbitrum team guys already following the account.

$WISHBONE
0x77581054581b9c525e7dd7a0155de43867532d03

dog coin on rh chain with actual lore.

wishbone + robin hood theme, backed by the SkiDog cto lead angle and a team that seems to know how to make people care.

$HOODIE
0xc72c01aab5f5678dc1d6f5c6d2b417d91d402ba3

pure degen community energy.

launched through bankr, getting support from deployer, dev is pushing the hoodie cult, people are changing pfps/names and doing tasks for drops.

he’s done podcasts with real names before and already tried pulling vlad tenev into the hoodie orbit.

stupid? yes.

but that’s kind of the point.

rh chain is still early and messy, but attention usually starts exactly like this

[cryppi / perpdexlist @cryppimagic]

the story of how Claude, Grok, and NotebookLM allowed me to farm Lighter points at $2 each while the OTC price was $100 at the time

x50

old but gold

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@0xVishnya @ether_fi @Krak @Plasma @wirexapp @KASTxyz check tria, nexo

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@donspotless0 why fl studio on screen

[Blockchain Surfer ☝️ @0xSurferX]

🚨 FOR POLYMARKET BOT DEVS:

(or how ghost fills eat your PnL)

Your bot sees depth, fires an order, gets a weird fill or a straight revert.

It's not your code.

The order book is LYING to your bot right now

Here's how to defend it:

The cause is a live sync bug between Polymarket's two layers.

Your bot reads the off-chain book, fast, over the API.

But trades only become real on-chain, on Polygon.

Right now those two don't always agree.

So your bot sees liquidity that isn't truly there.

It sends an order against that ghost depth, and one of two things happens:

> The fill reverts on-chain, but your API said "filled"

> Your bot updates its state to a position it doesn't actually hold

Now your bot is trading off a lie.

It thinks it's in, it's not, and every decision after that is built on a phantom position.

This is the ghost-fill problem, and it's worst in thin markets like weather and small sports.

Here's how you harden your bot until the fix ships:

> Never trust the API fill alone

> Reconcile against on-chain state.

Poll settlement and only mark a position real once it's confirmed on Polygon.

> Run a reconciliation pass every few seconds

(any order that didn't truly settle gets torn back down)

> Size down in thin books, cause that's where the ghosts live.

This is the same bug we've seen on Polymarket for months...

A fix is in progress again but for how long?

If you're a builder, build like your fills might be fake, cause right now some of them are.

Also preparing a full guide on how to minimise losses caused by this bug.

Releasing tomorrow!

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@GenaTheCroco 😁😁😁

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@0xVishnya Too long, didn't read

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@01Rajpurohit @Polymarket Received

[Arnya @itsarnya]

@gites4490 @Kenkaneki9518 Yup

[Arnya @itsarnya]

That was faster than I expected

[Arnya @itsarnya]

Next stop - 1000$ LP rewards.