Smeagle

Precious

[Price Errors @Pricerrors]

NINJA COUPON ERROR IS BACK ON AMAZON

Amazon discounted it but also left coupon on page

https://t.co/mnwoxjLIsP #ad

Dropping to $186 while next best price is $220 at BestBuy

Price history shows it has never been this low...

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

591 companies reporting this week. Big names: $MSFT, $V, $SBUX, $MA, $PG, $UNH, $MRK, $AAPL, $MSTR, $COIN.

Last week, stocks that beat often popped early and faded later. Many moved outside the expected range.

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Chipotle $CMG reports after close today

Implied move is 6.6% vs just 4.5% average actual move
IV/RV is elevated at 1.31

Est EPS: $0.32, Rev: $3.12B

Options look rich, if history repeats, this could be a premium selling setup

https://t.co/SLGPpUNij5

#stocks #earnings #options

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Alphabet $GOOGL $GOOG reports after close today

Implied move is 6.6% vs 6.5% historical avg.

IV/RV at 1.17 suggests premiums are pricey, and straddles have underperformed in 5 of the last 8

Est EPS: $2.15, Rev: $93.98B

Watch Search and Cloud growth

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Tesla $TSLA reports today after close

Implied move is 7.3% vs 10.8% historical avg. IV/RV just 0.86 options look underpriced

TSLA has broken the implied move in 5 of the last 8 quarters

High beta, heavy volume, cheap vol, setup for a big move?

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

AT&T $T reports tomorrow before open

Implied move is just 4.6%, IV/RV at 1.24

This is a slow mover, but options are pricey relative to realized

With a strong tendency to stay in range, premium harvesters may find edge here
Telecom quiet, but not cheap

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Fiserv $FI reports tomorrow before open

Implied move is 7.5% and IV/RV is a punchy 1.37

Last two earnings saw large moves outside expectations

Fintechs have been volatile post-earnings, especially on guidance

Big setup, expensive vol :)

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Capital One $COF reports today at the close

Market pricing in a 5.2% move

IV/RV at 1.15, options a bit rich but not extreme

Credit risk and loan provisions could swing the needle, but this name tends to stay inside

Premium sellers might like the odds here

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Texas Instruments $TXN reports today at the close

Options are pricing in a 5.8% move
IV/RV sits at 1.21 with bullish skew, implying elevated premium

Last few quarters were muted, but semis have seen big reversals post-earnings this season

https://t.co/SLGPpUNij5

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Lockheed Martin $LMT and RTX $RTX report earnings tomorrow at the open

Options market is pricing in a 4.8% move for LMT and 3.8% for RTX

Both names have exceeded implied in 5 of the last 8 quarters

Defence budgets (F-35 program) in focus and recent contract headlines

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Philip Morris $PM reports tomorrow at the open

Options are pricing in a 6% move, above the 4% average but PM has exceeded that in 3 straight quarters

Much of the upside came from surging ZYN sales, which helped fuel recent beats

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

General Motors $GM reports before market open on July 22.

The options market is pricing in a 5.8% move, almost identical to its historical average. A coin flip setup.

Key watch: EV targets, labor relations, China sales.

Vol neutral? See full setup at https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Netflix $NFLX beat on both EPS ($7.19 vs $7.07) and revenue ($11.08B vs $11.04B).

But the stock only moved ~1.6% vs a 6.3% implied move.

Massive IV crush incoming.

Options traders got burned.

See more earnings insights at https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Netflix $NFLX reports earnings this week.

The options market is pricing in a 6.5% move, well below its usual post-earnings swing of 7.9% to 10.4%.

With high IV/RV and a history of big gaps, this could be a setup for vol buyers.

Get the full breakdown at https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Taiwan Semi $TSM reports earnings tomorrow morning

The options market is pricing in a 4.7% move

Last two reports were flat and ASML just sold off on soft guidance

With rich premiums and mixed history, is this a chance to fade the move?

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

PepsiCo $PEP reports earnings tomorrow morning

The options market is pricing in a 3.9% move, higher than usual.

It’s moved less than expected in 6 of the last 8 quarters.

With an IV/RV of 1.37, options look expensive could be a setup for vol sellers.

https://t.co/SLGPpUMKtx

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Updated the landing page to https://t.co/hKhOowLCAH

What do ya’lll think my bot followers?

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

*correction Wednesday (tommorow) morning

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

$BAC reports Tuesday morning.
Implied move: 3.5%, just above the average of 3.0%

Moves tend to stay inside range (5 of last 8), but this time macro could shake things up.

Focus on:
– Net Interest Income
– Consumer banking trends
– Fed commentary

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

*correction reporting tommorow morning (Wednesday)

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

$ASML reports Tuesday morning. Buckle up.

Options market pricing in a 5.9% move but it’s moved an average of 8.3% the last 8 quarters.

Big past moves: +17%, -15%, +6.9%

As a key AI + chip player, any guidance shock could rip this.

[Smeagle @itsmesmeagle]

Track the setup → https://t.co/xuX3ydvUPs