Rochefoucauld

Current LO FI Portfolio Manager, ex Citi mkt maker. Not stock, financial or investment advice. Not giving recommendations. Do your own research

[Rochefoucauld @IvanBrian9]

@gerrythornley @URCOfficial @PlanetRugby @PortugalRugby surely the answer for tier 2 nations is entry into URC. They may not be competitive in 6 nations but URC or equivalent could work?? @BrendanFanning @bernardjackman

[Rochefoucauld @IvanBrian9]

@gerrythornley @URCOfficial @PlanetRugby @PortugalRugby surely the answer for tier 2 nations is entry into URC. They may not be competitive in 6 nations but URC or equivalent could work?? @BrendanFanning @bernardjackman

[Yardeni Research @yardeni]

YARDENI RESEARCH IN MARKETWATCH (July 3, 2023). “To assess whether we’re having a rolling expansion is as well as to look at those industries and sectors that have been depressed. They’re showing signs of recovering,” Ed Yardeni, p…https://t.co/qqmqRXqokE https://t.co/sWHoYO5NAo

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

GFC Starting Point Matters

Bankruptcies lag business cycle, w/peak seen at end of recession. Ch 11 filings heavily lagged in 2001 recession, not peaking until 2003/04. Bankruptcy filings also lead bank loan charge-off rates. Moreover, filings lead loan delinquencies
@SimonHWhite

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

There's a wide gap between manufacturing activity and the performance of Cyclicals vs. Defensives.

via JPMorgan

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

Otis $OTIS lifts the quarterly dividend by 17.20% to $0.34/share

I've been waiting for a whole year to say that pun

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Texas Instruments with double beat.

CEO: "Revenue decreased 6% sequentially and decreased 11% from the same quarter a year ago. During the quarter we experienced weakness across our end markets with the exception of automotive, as expected"

$TXN: -0.3% AH

[Rahul Sharma @Retail_Guru]

Definitely not slowing at Visa? Cross-border whether you look y/y or on a multi year basis as travel boom continues. $V $MA $XLY $ABNB $MAR $DAL $UAL $XLF

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Chipotle with a double beat:

—Total revenue: +17.2% YoY to $2.4B
—Comp sales: +10.9% YoY
—Operating margin: 15.5%, an increase from 9.4%

Outlook: "For 2023, management is anticipating...Second quarter and full year comparable restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single digit range"

$CMG: +5.3% AH

[PlungeProtectionTeam @gamesblazer06]

$JPM Card Spending +13% YoY…

“Consumer spend remains Solid & we haven’t observed any notable pullback throughout the quarter.”

J Barnum, CFO

1Q23 Earnings Call…

Just some Decel off Stimmy Peak that’s run its course.

[Passed Pawn @passedpawn]

Ever since the bear market began, CTA positioning has been swinging more in both directions, and SPX return has often tracked these swings on a 1 month basis.

The next swing in positioning will be lower.

chart by GS

[Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS]

"For now, profit margins on an economy-wide level remain close to five-decade highs" --SocGen

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

The last time this divergence occurred, the market declined rapidly

S&P 500 is close to its Feb 2023 highs, but % of stocks above their 200-day MA (market breadth) is significantly lower

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

11/ Equity put/call ratio recently reached levels consistently preceding market peaks

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Big inflow to healthcare

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

A year ago it was the lowest income workers filing by far the most jobless claims. Now we’re seeing a massive spike in claims for the wealthiest demo.

This chart tells the story:

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

American Express earnings call: $AXP

🗣️ “March was record spending month. Highest we have ever had”

+ Re-affirmed guidance for full year.

+ Not seeing slowdown in consumer segment in the US.

+ Delinquency expected to be below Pre pandemic in 2023.

🌎 Int’l growing fastest.

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Growth at $AXP is driven by Gen Zs & millennials:

"As we noted for some time, Millennial and Gen Z consumers are driving our growth in billings and acquisitions of premium fee-based products." - CEO Stephen Squeri

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$AXP CFO: " I think a lot of people describe the current economic environment as mixed. And so March was our strongest month ever across the globe in terms of volumes as a company"

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Nothing signals recession like Amex beating on revenues !