Sean D. Emory

Avory Foundational ETF $AVRY | Founding Partner & CIO of @AvoryCo | Investing Forward. | Data tells our stories | Opinions are mine.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

How’d I do?

What a cool experience!

Just the start for us here at @AvoryCo

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@FocusedCompound Yeah but

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

2 things.

people are running into their limits faster.

One person can do X

Now that person can do X + X + X

And that 3X is happening fast.

So the need to bring on additional people quick isn’t the first question for frontier companies.

So you get to the second type of company.

They are legacy. No software engineering in house. No idea what a harness even means.

They bring on talent to support that effort.

Every other investor we meet with in legacy industries has that new person in the back cranking Claude or codex (or goose ha)

But that’s what’s happening.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Job openings aren't a perfect data point, but directionally the April print at 7.62M moved back above the pre-pandemic ~7.15M baseline. Jobs remain stable and improving.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@rabois How’s this different than perplexity approach? Or does this sit underneath the interface??

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Token per watt per user

That’s it that’s the economics now work backwards.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Everyone keeps telling you the consumer is breaking and small businesses are getting crushed.

The Paychex Small Business Jobs Index just rose three months in a row. March, April, May. First time it has done that since 2023.

A couple of thoughts.

1. Direction matters more than level.

After two years of grinding lower, the trend flipped. Three months in a row is not noise.

2. This is not an overheating story.

Wage growth has stayed under 3% the whole way. Healthy turn, not a melt up.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@Lifebass80 right but we know what the capital is essentially being used for. A question anyone giving capital to another would ask.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Everyone out here screaming market top, bubble, AI hype… blah blah blah.

Meanwhile Berkshire Hathaway just put roughly $20B to work over a weekend, stepping into data center buildout and real estate through both equity and debt.

A couple of thoughts.

1. Real investors look for value.

“Market top” isn’t really part of the equation.

That’s a trader’s mindset.

If an asset is cheap relative to what it’s worth, you buy it and wait for value to accrue. The broader market narrative doesn’t change the math.

2. How bad can the economy really be?

If one of the most disciplined capital allocators in history is committing billions to data centers essentially and real estate, both highly tied to long-term economic activity, that’s worth paying attention to.

The lesson:

Spend less time trying to predict where the market will be next month and more time understanding what an asset is worth.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@aynirealtor @schaeffers Yeah forsure.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@aynirealtor @schaeffers I’d probably be hard to find 4+ people at a table that have iPhone and use Apple Cash at all.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

AVRY is built differently….

$AVRY

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@JMT94590 @AVRYdaily All about the entry. You know this…

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

One of our top holdings has been $ZM

Why?

Re-accelerating biz
High structural margins
Cash rich ($8B cash, no debt)

Massive stake in Anthropic (relative to market cap)

Today it gets live for it. Will that change maybe? But for now Anthropic just raised at $950B+

That means an IPO will need to be 30-50% above latest round of guess.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@TimothyBuffett @jack @blocks Have you been following the story. That’s like a 2022 story

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Oh boy. This team is cooking at $XYZ

AGAIN THIS IS THE MOMENT FOR FOUNDER LED ORGS!

Operators without that founder gene will get crushed. Those with, will win.

[Special Investor @SophistInvest]

$XYZ

Woke up to this 🤔

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

I’ve covered @Block since 2015. We invested then through 2021. We were rewarded very nicely.

Back in nearly 18 months ago.

I’ve never seen them launch products like this.

AI or not, it doesn’t matter, velocity and product market fit is all that matters. How you get there is a means to an end.

I’m pumped $XY

🧑‍🍳

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Oh boy. This team is cooking at $XYZ

AGAIN THIS IS THE MOMENT FOR FOUNDER LED ORGS!

Operators without that founder gene will get crushed. Those with, will win.

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

Just like that the race has started! Anthropic filing for IPO!

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

@Nerd_0ne 💪🏼

[Sean D. Emory @_SeanDavid]

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