🔔 It was an honor to ring the bell as we continue building at Avory.
This moment reflects more than a milestone, it’s a step forward in how we think about investing: focused, intentional, and built around investing forward.
As markets evolve, so does the need for strategies grounded in clarity, discipline, and long-term thinking.
Grateful for the opportunity, thankful for our partners, and even more excited for what’s ahead.
$SPX $TLT
The Paychex Small Business Jobs Index rose three months in a row in March, April and May.
It is the first three-month string of gains since 2023.
Wage growth has stayed under 3% across the period.
Job openings aren't a perfect data point, but directionally the April print at 7.62M moved back above the pre-pandemic ~7.15M baseline. Jobs remain stable and improving.
Out this week from Avory Research. Jobs still stable per ADP Pulse. +35,750 in the week ending May 9. Off the late March peak near 40K, but still climbing.
One thing we continue to believe at Avory: AI is increasing the need for software, not reducing it.
While overall US job postings keep slipping, software development postings have rebounded +19% from the 2025 trough.
That makes sense to us. Every business is now racing to integrate AI, automate workflows, connect fragmented data, and rebuild internal systems.
AI adoption still requires engineers, infrastructure, orchestration layers, and entirely new software experiences.
The bigger AI becomes, the larger the software opportunity may become alongside it.
Amazon benefiting from AI is not just about AWS.
A bigger story may be how AI improves the core retail platform.
If Amazon can use AI to enhance search, personalize recommendations, improve product discovery, and reduce friction in the buying journey, conversion should move higher over time. It is happening, look at this chart...
That matters because Amazon already has the traffic. Small improvements in conversion across a platform of this scale can translate into meaningful incremental GMV, better ad performance, and higher seller ROI.
As our CIO put it when looking at this chart:
"The big implication is that AI search may reward websites with clear logic, organized information, and useful answers more than traditional SEO tricks.
For investors, it also suggests AI could shift traffic and discovery toward platforms with high-quality structured data, especially in jobs, software, education, shopping, and financial services.
Also means incumbents continue to win if these embed it properly..."
The data is in.: From the desk...
Gemini engagement 3x in 12 months.
We remember when everyone was calling for the end of Google as we knew it.
Transition in progress .
Great chart from our CIO:
Earning season we saw lots of discussions on middle east conflict. Yet these companies raised guidance.
Implying a known known, but little impacts. For now...
Would have thought 25%, but wow 45% of Amazon traffic from social comes from YouTube.
Reddit is clearly a big source at #3, when you back out Facebook + Instagram at ~25%
$META
From our CIO Desk:
A good point: everyone is talking about the Shiller P/E right now to suggest valuations, but the more interesting Shiller signal may be housing.
Case-Shiller home prices are running at roughly half the pace of CPI shelter inflation, which raises the question of whether CPI shelter is overstating the current housing impulse.
We think so!
Sector and market estimates have moved significantly higher since the start of the year.
Here’s the delta in estimates.
Now clear to see how markets can push higher.