Public Comps

Building the next-generation financial data platform.

We tweet updates about public stocks. Not Investment Advice.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Microsoft is an absolute beast of a business.
$38B of net income +60% YoY

Meanwhile stock is down 19%.

Of the hyperscalers, $MSFT is the most hated despite owning 27% of OpenAI.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Did someone say SaaS isn't dead? 😵

[Steven Fiorillo @stevenfiorillo]

I just wrote an article about the SaaSpocalypse and why I think the market is wrong on $CRM $NOW and $WDAY on @artemis. Please see below

https://t.co/6GSwAYNyN6

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Coinbase is the winner of stablecoisn and agentic commerce

Check out the research our friends did at @artemis

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Coinbase is the winner of AI-native finance.

We believe $COIN can be a ~$300B+ company (6x from today)

Artemis open sources the BEST Coinbase financial model using onchain data.

You can now build models like the BEST analysts.

We believe Coinbase is WINNING in stablecoins, agentic commerce – not just as a crypto exchange.

Here’s the core assumptions
> Stablecoin supply reaches ~$3T in 2031 (~US Treasury official estimates)
> USDC is 30% of stablecoin supply
> Agentic Commerce ~$7.5T in yearly spend in 2031
> Coinbase Agentic Commerce is able to monetize and captures 1bp of the entire TAM
> Net transaction revenue grows 11% CAGR
> Subscription & Services goes from 40% of total revenue to 65% of revenue in 2031

In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income.

At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today)

Full 12 page thesis drops at 5pm ET 👀

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

. $BIRD — Contrarian LONG.

Thesis: Cash-Return Setup with Free AI Stub
Trades at $5.68. Strip out the Q3 2026 special dividend ($4.00/sh in cash) and you're paying ~$1.68 for the NewBird AI stub.

Assumptions:
• $39M sold to American Exchange Group sale → $35–$36.2M net proceeds
• $35M / 8.71M shares out → $4.00–$4.15/sh special dividend

What's left in the stub (~$1.68/sh)
• $50M convertible
• $2.75M signed GPU lease
• = a real, funded AI shell — not vapor

Why $BIRD is mispriced
~70% of the current price is a near-deterministic cash return; the AI shell is effectively a free option on top.

The market is still pricing this as a meme/risky name when the fundamental setup is closer to a cash-stub arb with optionality.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Palo Alto Network $PANW operating income is going up to the right.

Up 59% YoY

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

The Neobank Landscape for 2026 just launched.

Check it out fintech investors!

[Alex @0xpampa]

Neobanks spent 15 years handing rent to sponsor banks, but now they don't have to.

In the past 4 months:
- @coinbase applied for a national trust charter
- @nubank received approval to create a US bank
- @krakenfx got a Fed Master Account

They can now access legacy payment rails.

At the same time, traditional fintechs are plugging into global crypto rails:
- @SoFi launched SoFiUSD
- @stripe acquired @Stablecoin , @privy_io and launched @tempo
- @RobinhoodApp is launching Robinhood Chain

The stack is getting crushed from both ends and the winners will own both sides of it.

Let's dive into what's happening 👇

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Here's who wins and loses from agentic payments 👇

[Lucas @OnchainLu]

https://t.co/IQh2cQBIZp

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

@johnarnold Do tell 👀

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

@moonpay 👀

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

https://t.co/TqLoiJ1YLM now trades for 1.4x ARR 🥶

- $1.3b ARR
- 25% YoY
- 25% FCF

Down 50% YTD. ALL in on AI Sidekick, Vibe, AI workflow, etc.

Do we not think Monday could be a Claude Cowork competitor?

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Palantir $PLTR is such an insane business.

Viewed as a meme stock in Q1'22 and as services company disguised as a software company.

Instead business is now doing $600m+ in net income per quarter.

Long $PLTR. Congrats Alex Karp and team.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

@artemis thank you sers

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Crowdstrike is down 14% YTD due to Claude Security fears.

Meanwhile:
✅ Founder led
✅ $5.2b ARR +24% YoY
✅ $376m FCF or 29% FCF
✅ Rule of 53
✅ Super profitable --$59m net income +169%

Claude Code isn't going to replace security -- AI + war + geopolitics will drive more demand for $CRWD

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

UI Path net income is surging:

Up 102% YoY to $104m and run rate $416m NI.

Can UI Path be a winner of agentic enterprise?

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

@jonbma 🤝

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

@Citrini7 Would chat with @artemis guys . they focus on stablecoins / payments.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Long live SaaS.

SaaS isn't dead.

Business model will just shift towards agent led pricing.

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

OpenAI is $13B ARR +137% YoY with -50% FCF.

At $1T, OpenAI trades at 76.9x EV/ARR which would be the highest multiple just behind Palantir at 110x.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

OpenAI will be the #1 fastest growing public SaaS co

> $13B ARR + 137% YoY
> $1B of enterprise value
> 76.9x EV/ARR (Palantir trades at 110.6x 🤷)
> 84% rule of 40 revenue growth + LTM FCF (#3)
>-50% net income margins (estimate -$5B of burn in '25)

Congrats @sama and @OpenAI

$OPENAI

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Fintech Investors,

Payments are happening on chain. Check out the most recent proprietary data from @artemis stablecoin report on stablecoins onchain 👇

[Artemis @artemis]

INTRODUCING: Part 2 of our Stablecoin Payments Report!

Co-written with @CastleIslandVC and @dragonfly_xyz, with data now through August 2025.

Stablecoin payments hit $10.2B monthly, up 70% since February and 137% since Aug '24, now at a $122B annual rate.

Here’s how the market evolved in just 6 months 🧵

[Public Comps @publiccomps]

Palantir is a beast of a business $PLTR

- $4B ARR
- 48% YoY growth
- 105x EV/ARR
- 128% Net Dollar Retention