Jon Ma

CEO @Artemis | ex @InsightPartners @Whalerock @Publiccomps | Fintech / Software Analyst

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Anthropic IPO Consensus Views:
- Overvalued at $1.5T
- Revenue is flattening
- Token are commoditized due to open source
- Token prices falling faster than demand
- Anthropic shouldn't go public b/c robbing general public of upside and passing on risk.
- Anthropic is Twilio but for intelligence.

Contrarian
- Anthropic is still a 10x from here and has venture upside.
- $80B ARR reported by WSJ is just primarily coding agents and will re-accel with Fable / Mythos
- Finance, legal, life sciences, Ode are all super early ...
- Agents = still early and most businesses think of AI = ChatGPT / Claude app.
- Anthropic will zoom past $100B ARR EOY with release of Fable 5.2 / Mythos 5.2
- Retail is starving for direct exposure to frontier labs and will ape in and drive Anthropic to $3T marketcap.
- Anthropic is easily a $500B revenue business in 2030 with simple assumption Fortune 500 spent 0.1% of OPEX today ... Stripe spends 1% and not crazy Fortune 500 replace labor with tokens in 2030. 1% of OPEX would imply 10x of the $75b revenue Q3'26 so $750B revenue in 2030.

Full thesis + model coming out Wednesday

H/T @zhengjielimm

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@calvinzeng Get back with a more thoughtful response tomorrow AM. Def concerning esp ANT able to train on AMD chips in days versus months and the moat is disappearing. Wonder if the ousting is at all related.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Nvidia going to report $109B +92% Y/Y next week: but now trades at 2027 P/E- 10.5x and 2028 7.9x

Whereas CPUs trade at 2027 P/E 23.4x 2028 15.4x

WTF.

Just bought some more and getting it to 10% of my portfolio.

Bear case is no Jensen, $NVDA goes down and people sell $NVDA at $4T and just rotate into $ANT at $2T which is growing 10x+ YoY.

NVIDIA will be fine.

Kudos @zhengjielimm

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@superpobe @firstadopter Yeah it was tough. Feels sad reading through it during this time

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

I decided to re-read The Nvidia Way by @firstadopter.

Would highly recommend to zoom out on the Nvidia story.

Reminded of how much pain / suffering Jensen went through (literally entire chapter on near death experiences 1993-2003 and SEGA giving $NVDA a lifeline) and how much Nvidia is Jensen (honing the sword, suffering is part of the game, demanding extreme commitment, focus on excellence,) wins b/c of him.

We forget a lot of core executives and engineers have been at Nvidia for years if not decades b/c of Jensen.

Jonah Alben who could be a replacement for Jensen has been there for 3 decades (!!)

Nvidai is Jensen.

Sadly, one of his lessons Tae highlights is not to make the same mistake twice and that bit him in the butt.

No one is perfect, including Jensen and its a reminder to give grace / humility to ourselves and everyone since we will all have our ups and downs.

Even the guy who became on top of the Ai industry.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@jc_keel If investors who want exposure to AI demand, NVDA used to be the best pure play before neoclouds popped up. I'd imagine some may rotate into cash and pile into Anthropic at IPO given the absurd growth.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@DanielTNiles Love this thesis Dan.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Nvidia is going to report (consensus estimates) $109B of Q3'26 growing 92% Y/Y next week ... and I think their board is going to figure their sh*t out and realize now isn't the time to let Jensen go.

Business trades at 10.3x 2027 and 7.9x earnings (CPU stocks trade 2-3x more)

Great thesis and bull case JCal.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@DollarCostAvg @Jason @TLawrence1935 damn your size

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@icobeast The time to value and ability to do equity perps on Kalshi is brain dead fast. Even faster than using Robinhood to long a stock. Kudos man

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Here's consensus estimates for $NVDA

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@matthew_sigel @mcagney @MBTannenbaum Yes, can't wait for this

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@rob @ro What a legendary story and era. Loved the stories from early Ro, Rob! Also I still can't believe you have the handle @rob on X haha

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@firstadopter 👀

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@saman @ZReitano @ro Congrats Saman and team. What a journey!

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@americanspend @artemis 👊🏻

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@ericmreiner Congrats Eric!! LFGGG.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

@JustinBarlow What a run and chapter Justin. Awesome working with you over at Sei. Congrats on the growth of the ecosystem under your leadership. Will miss our chats. Excited to see what's next.

[Jon Ma @jonbma]

Let's go @ZReitano. What a beautiful piece. Congrats on the $3B run rate and 100% growth. LFGG.

You all went through the fire and came out stronger. Love the Slootman piece about focus.

Thank you for inspiring me 7 years ago with how mission oriented you are and to take the leap and start a company. Thanks for continuing to inspire me man!