💎IZY💎

up to the sky

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@blknoiz06 full send

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@jeungsigyelyang 그동안 차분하게 다지고 다시 올라가 준비 중 ?

[playrisk @playrisk]

https://t.co/SrNM6JYjd9

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@100y_eth typical midcurve

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: It’s now been 3 years since Jason Calacanis tweeted “If you’re in crypto pivot to AI”

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@degennQuant hype needs to go over 65 clearly to be stabilized a bit.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@drjingle grayscale's etf launch is mostly the tokens local top though

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@mindandtrading smart play

[Brian Brookshire @btc_overflow]

Frankly, I'm just not that concerned about Strategy's ongoing ability to service dividend obligations. But people will come back and say, "what about the convertible bonds?" So let's take a look at that.

To start, we're more than a year away from the next put date (Sep 2027) and more than 2 years away from the next maturity (Sep 2028). So none of the convertible bonds are near-term concerns.

The $1.01B Sep 2028 CB has a conversion price of $183.19. Most likely outcome for this bond is that it converts as expected. Even if market price is slightly below conversion price on the Sep 2027 put date, bondholders won't necessarily seek to cash out. The CBs will still have time value. And even if MSTR is still below $183.19 by Sep 2028, the haircut would likely be minimal.

Likewise, the conversion prices are low enough that I see the most likely outcome for the 2030A, 2031, and 2032 notes as conversion as expected. The only thing that would change my view on this is if the 4-year cycle actually breaks and we haven't seen a new bitcoin uptrend by 2028.

The only two bonds I see potentially of concern are the 2029 notes struck at $672.40 and the 2030B notes struck at $433.43.

MSTR has come back from worse odds. The Feb 2027 notes struck at $143.25 in 2021 fell as low as 90% underwater during the 2022 bear market and still recovered to convert (hence why they are not on the below table).

That said, the probability is still meaningful that the 2029 notes will be more dilutive than anticipated. But how dilutive exactly and does Strategy still come out ahead on those buys? The 2029 notes were issued at a 55% premium at a time when mNAV was ~3x. So let's call that an effective multiple of 3 * 1.55 = 4.65x. $672.40 / 4.65 gives us a mark to beat of $144.60.

Less dilution is of course better, but if Strategy has to sell shares at a price lower than $672.40 to cover the CB, it still has quite a bit of leeway to come out ahead.

The 2030B notes are a closer call. If we have another typical 4-year BTC cycle it's likely we see an MSTR price above $433.43. The 2030 maturity would put maturation in the bear year, but Strategy can call the note as early as Mar 2027. In the event MSTR market price does not reach $433.43, Strategy might still, like the 2029 notes, have an opportunity to buy them back at less favorable, but still accretive prices.

In sum, my base case is that MSTR's convertible bonds are not a particularly large problem and still wind up being accretive even if MSTR were to take a haircut on the ones with higher conversion prices. A haircut, of course, is not a given. A lot can happen 2 years into what is typically the bull phase for bitcoin.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@GlennOnrampBTC @TFTC21 mstr holders like this way though, no? if mstr holders are okay and cypto ppl are okay then everybody okay.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

is 32 meme or what

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

Strive acquired an additional 32 $BTC for ~$2.1M at an average cost of ~$63,911 per bitcoin.

$ASST $SATA

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@ThatAIFreak @HyperliquidX it would be big joke if hip-4 misses this worldcup outcome opportunity.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

K K, B B

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Korea Krashes, Bitcoin Bounces

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

genius

[Cobie @cobie]

@SweetcheeksReal Check the date and time of this tweet and then the one you quoted :)

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@jeungsigyelyang 감사합니다 시유님은 중국주 이미 매수 들어가계신건가요?

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@5morewhooppers what if he sold big last week and tryna buy some upcoming week. i saw some postings that fidelity custody related mstr moved a chunk of btc last week.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

maybe he sold big and bought a little

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

담주 strategy 8k 까보기 겁나요

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

A good time to add more dots.

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

@hl_eco available on iphone app store?

[💎IZY💎 @izycloudy]

big week next week.