Nirag J Shah

2 decades into equity research & investing field ; having a strong liking for detailed research and analysing an IO from varied angles.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

I see it other way although I could be wrong in my assumption. Provisional one month number alongwith projected Financials as are released and calculated are normally given to prospective buyer in an equity stake purchase deal. Fairfax might be close to exiting its stake in Fairchem.

This is just my assumption and I could be wrong.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

From a conservative management of Fairchem, we, for the first time in its last 2 decades history, hear future financial projections alongwith Q3FY25's actual first month's (October) provisional numbers.

It clear shows the intent and roadmap for the company.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@Ravi99188144 That's why I said future roadmap and intent. Vision and intention to achieve something is most important and that coming from a management who has in last 2 decades despite severe analyst pressures refused to reveal any future expected numbers is significant thing to note.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Actual revenue came at INR 139 cr. with ebitda margins at single digit levels.

Government's step to increase Edible oils import duty might be reversed sooner rather than later because of significant rise in global edible oil prices starting to affect inflation.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

.
Q2FY25e Revenue Estimate :

.
Q2FY25e Revenue = 146 cr.

v/s

Q2FY24's 152.19 cr.,

and

Q1FY25's 164.92 cr.

-------------

YoY DeGrowth = - (4.07) %

QoQ DeGrowth = - (11.47) %

This is our rough estimate.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@SreenadhV Results on expected lines. 146 cr. was anyway expected. Worst seems to be behind now. Hopefully Q4 should see turn of long drawn bad phase.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

.
Q2FY25e Revenue Estimate :

.
Q2FY25e Revenue = 146 cr.

v/s

Q2FY24's 152.19 cr.,

and

Q1FY25's 164.92 cr.

-------------

YoY DeGrowth = - (4.07) %

QoQ DeGrowth = - (11.47) %

This is our rough estimate.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

Quarterly Market Price update of key products for Q2FY25 :

.
Linoleic Acid/Soya Fatty Acid avg. Qrtly price are down -(4.78) % YoY but up +0.68 % QoQ

.
.
Dimer Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is down -(13.51) % YoY but up +3.89 % QoQ.

.
.
Palmitic Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is up +30.38 % YoY and up + 0.65 % QoQ.

.
------------------------------
Key RM price update for the quarter Q2FY25 :

Acid Oil prices are down -(6.11) % YoY but up +0.40 % QoQ.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@vikepedia 146 cr. was anyway expected. Worst seems to be behind now. Hopefully Q4 should see turn of long drawn bad phase.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@SreenadhV Price increase started especially in palmitic acid after September 15 which was at the end of Q2.

Have taken a conservative approach with 16k MT volume assumption.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@Bhavik__bt Isostearic is still in initial phase. 2 more quarters needs to be given for it to pick up pace. Once done, it seems to be a very sticky high margin business.

In estimating Q2 numbers, we have taken a conservative approach by assuming only 16k MT sales.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@SreenadhV If current price of palm oil sustain or increase from here and soya and Sunflower oil prices show tepid increase then yes we can expect good Q3 topline with decent margins.

Lets see how things unfold.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

One recent important development with regards to industry is the significant price increase in Palm Oil (starting 15th September 2024) on which company's end-product prices are based ; and relatively soft increase in Soya and Sunflower oil prices on which company's Raw Material prices are based.

14 October Price v/s Q2FY25 Average

-- Palm Oil current price is 28.08 % higher than Q2FY25 average price ;

-- Soya Oil current price is 24.22 % higher than Q2FY25 average price ;

-- Sunflower Oil current price is 26.80 % higher than Q2FY25 average price ;

---------------------------

14 October Price v/s Q2FY24 Average

Palm Oil current price is 54.01 % higher than Q2FY24 average price ;

Soya Oil current price is 35.20 % higher than Q2FY24 average price ;

Sunflower Oil current price is 44.47 % higher than Q2FY24 average price ;

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

Quarterly Market Price update of key products for Q2FY25 :

.
Linoleic Acid/Soya Fatty Acid avg. Qrtly price are down -(4.78) % YoY but up +0.68 % QoQ

.
.
Dimer Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is down -(13.51) % YoY but up +3.89 % QoQ.

.
.
Palmitic Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is up +30.38 % YoY and up + 0.65 % QoQ.

.
------------------------------
Key RM price update for the quarter Q2FY25 :

Acid Oil prices are down -(6.11) % YoY but up +0.40 % QoQ.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@Bhavik__bt Isostearic ?? Same price.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

Quarterly Market Price update of key products for Q2FY25 :

.
Linoleic Acid/Soya Fatty Acid avg. Qrtly price are down -(4.78) % YoY but up +0.68 % QoQ

.
.
Dimer Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is down -(13.51) % YoY but up +3.89 % QoQ.

.
.
Palmitic Acid average Q2FY25 qrtrly price is up +30.38 % YoY and up + 0.65 % QoQ.

.
------------------------------
Key RM price update for the quarter Q2FY25 :

Acid Oil prices are down -(6.11) % YoY but up +0.40 % QoQ.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@SwiggyCares Have responded to ur dm. Kibdly check and revert.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

@rohitisb

Have replied to ur DM. Kindly check.

I am amazed even after delivering multiple cockroaches inside swiggy sticker sealed bag how lightly u take this issue of not going through even my entire chat I had with yr bot chat as well as customer executive and are unaware of resolution provided by them.

No mention of why said instamart store was having cockroaches in the store and what steps u are taking to see to it that customer interests are protected.

Almost 12 hours passed and no supervisor called.

Didn't expect this from swiggy. Completely unprofessional.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

Today got instamart order of 20 frooti and 5 munch chocolates with multiple small cockroaches inside the bag. To make things worst customer service executive on chat was helpless and he assured supervisor will call immediately but even after 2 hours no call.

This has to be reported strongly as it is the mockery made of customers out there with chat executive closing conversation abruptly despite delivery of package with multiple cockroaches.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

.
Q1FY25e Revenue Estimate :

.
Q1FY25e Revenue = 165 cr.

v/s

Q1FY24's 160.58 cr., and

Q4FY24's 160.55 cr.

-------------

YoY Growth = + 2.75 % QoQ Growth = + 2.77 %

This is our rough estimate.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

Quarterly Market Price update of key products for Q1FY25 :

.
Linoleic Acid/Soya Fatty Acid avg. Qrtly price are down -(9.10) % YoY but up +7.97 % QoQ .

.
Dimer Acid average Q1FY25 qrtrly price is down -(23.69) % YoY but up +1.49 % QoQ. .

.
Palmitic Acid average Q1FY25 qrtrly price is up +17.21 % YoY and up + 26.46 % QoQ.

.
------------------------------

Key RM price update for the quarter Q1FY25 :

Acid Oil prices are down -(2.77) % YoY and -(1.48) % QoQ.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FOODSIN

Foods & Inns Ltd. [ NSE : FOODSIN ; BSE : 507552 ]

.
Q1FY25e Revenue Estimate :

.
Q1FY25e Revenue = 258 cr.

v/s

Q1FY24's 288 cr., and

Q4FY24's 340 cr.

-------------
YoY DeGrowth = - (10.42) % QoQ DeGrowth = -(24.11) %

This is our rough estimate.

[Nirag J Shah @j_nirag]

#FAIRCHEMOR

Fairchem Organics Ltd.

Quarterly Market Price update of key products for Q1FY25 :

.
Linoleic Acid/Soya Fatty Acid avg. Qrtly price are down -(9.10) % YoY but up +7.97 % QoQ .

.
Dimer Acid average Q1FY25 qrtrly price is down -(23.69) % YoY but up +1.49 % QoQ. .

.
Palmitic Acid average Q1FY25 qrtrly price is up +17.21 % YoY and up + 26.46 % QoQ.

.
------------------------------

Key RM price update for the quarter Q1FY25 :

Acid Oil prices are down -(2.77) % YoY and -(1.48) % QoQ.