Jack

pats fan

[Jack @Jack012326]

In light of the Marty Walsh news... #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Major props to Patrick Roath and his team for running the most competitive race this district has seen in my lifetime. I wouldn’t be shocked if Lynch hangs it up a year from now.

[Jack @Jack012326]

Few more thoughts on the MA08 race now that we have complete numbers (though still waiting on precinct-level results):

Biggest swings towards Roath:
-Hingham (+40.2%)
-Westwood (+36.4%)
-Norwood (+28.9%)

Smallest:
-Stoughton (+8.9%)
-Avon (+8.9%)
-Brockton (+9.2%)

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Boston turnout: 27,828 (27.3%)
Non-Boston: 74,240 (72.7%)

In 2020, Boston was only 24.2% of votes in the district. Impressive turnout operation by the Roath camp here.

Roath also did much better than expected in Boston, winning it 55.6%-44.4%. Goldstein lost it by 11% in 2020!

[Jack @Jack012326]

Going to bed! Thanks to all who followed along tonight! Will update the sheet in the morning, but here is how everything stands as I lay to rest:

https://t.co/BKwbqPV91Q

[Jack @Jack012326]

ABINGTON (fully reporting)
Lynch 1177 (68.3%)
Roath 545 (31.7%)

A 13.3% swing from 2020. Improvement from 2020, but nowhere near what Roath needs.

[Jessy Han @hjessy_]

We're still waiting on (rainy!) Election Day vote out of Boston, which should drop sometime in the next 30 minutes.

As of now, #MA08 is shaping up as a high single-digit or low double-digit Lynch win.

[Jack @Jack012326]

Dedham fully reporting now:

LYNCH 2424 (52.9%)
ROATH 2162 (47.1%)

A 28% performance from 2020. Man, a lot of people are gonna be kicking themselves after tonight. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 3

Lynch 252 (55.4%)
Roath 203 (44.6%)

Was 68-32 in 2020- again, not too far off from what Roath needs if some other stuff breaks his way. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

In 2026, who on earth knows whether the early vote in a democratic primary is more or less progressive than the Election Day vote. People make arguments both ways.

Based on the few Back Bay/Charlestown precincts we’ve seen, Roath isn’t doing well enough with E-day, but we’ll see

[Jack @Jack012326]

In case people were wondering- the figure that NYT is reporting for Boston in the MA08 race is only the early vote- no precinct-level returns yet.

Early vote in Boston (includes pre-election day mail-ins)

ROATH 4,314 (54%)
LYNCH 3.735 (46%)

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

QUINCY fully reporting:

Lynch 6,695 (56%)
Roath 5,264 (44%)

Another stunning- but not quite good enough- result for Roath. A 24% overperformance from 2020! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

AVON fully reporting:

Lynch 340 (67%)
Roath 168 (33%)

9% overperformance for Roath. Small, but not what he needs. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

First results in WEYMOUTH:

Lynch 255 (62.8%)
Roath 151 (37.2%)

Town was 72-38 in 2020, a 19% overperformance for Roath.

We’re approaching single-digits territory for Lynch, but tough to see him losing at this point. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

In the suburbs, Roath is consistently doing 25-28% better than Goldstein did in 2020. That's a great performance!

But unfortunately, Goldstein lost by 33%, and it remains to be seen whether Roath will be able to find enough juice in Boston to bridge that gap. Southie! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

WALPOLE and NORWOOD just posted near-final results:

WALPOLE
Lynch 57.7%
Goldstein 42.3%

Was 71-28 Lynch

NORWOOD
Lynch 58%
Roath 42%

Was 72-28 Lynch

Good result for Roath

[Jack @Jack012326]

WALPOLE and NORWOOD just posted near-final results:

WALPOLE
Lynch 57.7%
Goldstein 42.3%

Was 71-28 Lynch

NORWOOD
Lynch 58%
Roath 42%

Was 72-28 Lynch

Good result for Roath

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 3

Lynch 252 (55.4%)
Roath 203 (44.6%)

Was 68-32 in 2020- again, not too far off from what Roath needs if some other stuff breaks his way. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Correction- Roath running 25% of the 2020 margin in this precinct! Not quite what he needs, but closer.

[Jack @Jack012326]

Correction- Roath running 25% of the 2020 margin in this precinct! Not quite what he needs, but closer.

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 2:
LYNCH 355 (53.7%)
ROATH 306 (46.3%)

Little change from 2020. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 2:
LYNCH 355 (53.7%)
ROATH 306 (46.3%)

Little change from 2020. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 1:

LYNCH 412 (51.2%)
ROATH 387 (48.8%)

Was Lynch +7.4% in 2020- a small overperformance by Roath.

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Another precinct in. Combined results:

LYNCH 166 (66%)
ROATH 86 (34%)

Still not really what Roath needs, but a move in the right direction. We need some votes from Southie! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

First results from Brockton….

With one precinct reporting:
LYNCH 142 (75%)
ROATH 47 (25%)

This is the first result I’ve seen where it would really be a death knell for Roath if it holds. Trying not to overreact based on one precinct… #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

WHITMAN

LYNCH 294 (65%)
ROATH 158 (35%)

1/4 precincts reporting. Was 72-28 in 2020, so a modest Roath overperformance. #mapoli