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1/8: We are short $HYLN (Hyliion Holdings) because we believe that the ~$133mm LOI with VFG Holdings, which had sent the stock up ~150%+, is misrepresented and that VFG is seemingly unable to support an order of that size. For the full short thesis, including our very important disclaimer about our financial interests and how they work, please visit the Pelican Way Research website, which is linked in our bio.
@fcfyplusg@opmpod is great, my other go to is @OnTheTapePod. @muddywatersre has been in some recently, anything where Carson speaks is a good listen. If you really want to get a good laugh, look up ZeroesTV on YouTube and watch episode 20.
OUR NEW SHORT: $GIL
We are short Gildan Activewear, a basic apparel manufacturer based in Canada and listed on both the NYSE and TSX. Below is just a summary of some of our opinons about this company; for the full short thesis, including endnotes and our very important disclaimer about our financial interests and how they work, please see the Jehoshaphat Research website.
1) Our forensic analysis concludes that GIL’s “true” organic growth is negative and has been for years, contrasting sharply with its appearance of revenue growth. This underlying decline has been obscured by financial engineering.
2) In our opinion, GIL has been “stuffing” its distributors and other customers with product far in excess of underlying end user demand. This, in our analysis, has led to an overhang of product worth around half a billion dollars, and this contrasts with consensus Street forecasts for 2026 that don’t make sense. The acquisition of Hanes presents additional challenges, too many to list here but detailed in our thesis.
3) Former employees and distributors report aggressive, concerning practices such as ones that “compel the distributors to bring forward some purchases,” or offering extended terms at quarter-ends to “move sales from Q2 to Q1,” etc. These quotes are provided in context in our thesis.
4) We believe this misleading picture of organic growth started to form around 2024, following the mass resignation of the GIL board of directors. Is that a coincidence, or is the new Board less interested in policing Management than the old Board?
We always leave some of the more interesting things for readers of the full opinion, so we encourage you to visit our website and download the PDF of our short thesis, paying attention as well to our very important disclaimer. Comments and corrections welcome at our website or our email address.
MW is short $ENSG. We believe Ensign rents Administrator licenses at est. ~20% of its SNFs to deceive CMS & the states. We estimate compliance alone cuts 2027 EBIT ~35% vs consensus & slows growth from ~11% to ~2%. FCA exposure possibly in Billions of $. Report link follows
The average Jehoshaphat Research short idea has underperformed the S&P 500 by -53% since inception. First idea was published March 2021.
We don't publish often, but when we do we're rarely wrong.
On this month's Behind the Bear, we sat down with @JackPatrick06 of @Pelicanwayre.
How he finds his targets, why he tries to kill his own thesis before publishing, and how he thinks a short report should really be measured.
Full profile: https://t.co/TSWXSjQ2B7