The best regular season record in the MLB since 2010 averages 102 wins & 60 losses (63%).
Even if the #Mets can play elite 63% winning baseball over their remaining games, they’ll finish with 84 wins, likely just short of a wildcard spot.
It’s over.
Mark Vientos has the worst count approach on the Mets: 4.6% 3-0/3-1 rate (bottom of league), 23.0% 0-2, 30.9% whiff.
His +16.4 K-BB% "beats" his grim expected (+22.8), but it's still worse than the +12.1 median, propped up by a 4.0% walk rate. .288 wOBA. #NYM
Benge is doing the hard parts right: stays out of two-strike counts, rarely whiffs.
But his +13.1 K-BB% is ~6 pts worse than expected. A 7.6% walk rate is below the median, but hey, he's got a BABIP at .304 🤷♂️ #NYM
Brett Baty reaches 3-0/3-1 counts in 18.1% of PAs - highest on the Mets, ~90th percentile in the MLB. Elite approach. But his +19.8 K-BB% is ~8 pts worse than expected based on 3-0/3-1 rate, 0-2 rate, and whiff% (SLR, R^2 = .71). One of the worst K-BB% residuals in baseball.
To nobody's surprise, Juan Soto's approach is great. Gets ahead, avoids two-strike counts, rarely whiffs... all above median.
His +4.6 K-BB% matches what those inputs predict. Good approach + good contact = .421 wOBA. No mystery. #NYM
Pep Guardiola spent €200m in January on Semenyo & Guehi to try and beat Arsenal to the League
Arteta spent nothing but instead gave more minutes to Max (16) & Skelly (19)
That's the Difference between us🤝
Arsenal PL title legacy watch:
Arteta greatest rags to riches project (at a big club) ever
Saliba top 5 PL CB ever
Raya top 5 PL GKs ever
Rice top 20 PL midfielder ever
Saka top 10 PL winger ever and best player of the Emirates era
Trossard most clutch player Arsenal has seen
Count profiles for the #Mets early on. Tracking F-Strike%, 2-0 counts, Tier 1 counts (3-0/3-1: elite wOBA per @tangotiger), and 0-2 avoidance. Looking promising for Benge, Baty, & Young, but drops off a cliff for Bichette & Vientos.
Thru April 29th, there are only 4 #Mets players with xwOBACON above MLB average. Zero players are outperforming their average xwOBACON across the last two seasons. Sorted by percentile vs '24 & '25 average: