Elon Musk avait dit un truc qui m'avait marqué sur l'allocation de ressources. En substance : passé un certain niveau de richesse, l'argent n'est plus de la consommation, c'est de l'allocation de capital.
Cette phrase change tout.
L'économie, dans le fond, c'est juste un problème d'allocation. Tu as des ressources finies et des usages infinis. Qui décide où va quoi ?
Imagine une cour de récré. 100 enfants, des paquets de cartes Pokémon distribués au hasard. Tu laisses faire. Très vite, un ordre émerge. Les bons joueurs accumulent les cartes rares, les collectionneurs trient, les négociateurs trouvent des deals. Personne n'a planifié. Et pourtant chaque carte finit dans les mains de celui qui en tire le plus de valeur. Le système maximise le bonheur total de la cour. C'est ça, la main invisible.
Maintenant fais entrer la maîtresse. Elle trouve ça injuste. Léo a 50 cartes, Tom en a 3. Elle confisque, redistribue, impose l'égalité. Trois effets immédiats. Les bons joueurs arrêtent de jouer, à quoi bon. Les mauvais n'ont plus de raison de progresser, ils auront leur part. Les échanges s'effondrent. La cour est égale, et morte. Elle a maximisé l'égalité, elle a détruit le bonheur.
Le problème de la maîtresse, c'est qu'elle ne peut pas avoir l'information que la cour avait collectivement. C'est le problème du calcul économique de Mises, formulé en 1920. L'URSS a essayé de le résoudre pendant 70 ans avec le Gosplan. Résultat : pénuries, queues, effondrement. Pas parce que les Soviétiques étaient bêtes, parce que le problème est mathématiquement insoluble en mode centralisé.
Quand Musk a 200 milliards, il ne les consomme pas, il les alloue. SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, xAI. Chaque dollar est un pari sur le futur. Et lui a un track record. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. Il a démontré qu'il sait identifier des problèmes immenses et y allouer des ressources avec un rendement spectaculaire.
L'État aussi a un track record. Hôpitaux qui s'effondrent, éducation qui décline, dette qui explose, services publics qui se dégradent malgré des budgets en hausse constante. Le marché identifie les bons allocateurs, la politique identifie les bons communicants.
Le profit n'est pas une finalité, c'est un signal. Il dit : tu as alloué des ressources rares vers un usage que les gens valorisent suffisamment pour payer. Plus le profit est gros, plus la création de valeur est grande. Quand Starlink est rentable, ça veut dire que des millions de gens dans des zones rurales ont enfin internet. Quand un ministère est en déficit, ça veut dire qu'il consomme plus qu'il ne produit. L'un crée, l'autre détruit, et on appelle ça redistribution.
Dans nos sociétés il y a deux catégories d'acteurs. Les entrepreneurs et les bureaucrates. L'entrepreneur prend un risque personnel pour identifier un problème, mobiliser des ressources, créer une solution. S'il se trompe il perd. S'il a raison, ses clients gagnent, ses employés gagnent, ses fournisseurs gagnent, l'État collecte des impôts. Il est la cellule de base du progrès humain.
Le bureaucrate ne prend aucun risque personnel. Son salaire est garanti. Au mieux il maintient une rente existante. Au pire il la détruit par excès de réglementation, mauvaise allocation forcée, incitations perverses qui découragent ceux qui produisent. Mais dans aucun cas il ne crée.
Regarde les 50 dernières années. iPhone, internet civil, SpaceX, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Stripe, mRNA, ChatGPT. Toutes des inventions privées, portées par des entrepreneurs, financées par du capital risque. Pas un seul ministère n'a inventé quoi que ce soit qui ait changé ta vie au quotidien.
La France est devenue le laboratoire mondial de la dérive bureaucratique. 57% du PIB en dépenses publiques, record absolu. Une administration tentaculaire, une fiscalité qui pénalise la création de richesse. Résultat : décrochage face aux États-Unis, à l'Allemagne, à la Suisse. Fuite des cerveaux. Désindustrialisation. Dette qui explose.
Et le pire c'est que la mauvaise allocation s'auto-renforce. Plus l'État prélève, moins les entrepreneurs créent. Moins ils créent, moins il y a de base fiscale. Plus l'État s'endette et taxe. Boucle de rétroaction négative parfaite. La maîtresse pense qu'elle aide, et chaque année la cour produit moins.
Dans nos sociétés, ce sont les entrepreneurs, toujours, qui font avancer la civilisation. Les bureaucrates au mieux maintiennent une rente, au pire la détruisent. Aucune société n'a jamais progressé en taxant ses créateurs pour subventionner ses gestionnaires.
La question n'est jamais qui a combien. C'est qui alloue le mieux la prochaine unité de ressource pour maximiser le futur de l'humanité. La réponse depuis 200 ans n'a jamais changé. Ce ne sont pas les fonctionnaires.
It’s funny how many years later, early days of coding still looks the same. This is pretty identical to mine and @MartinLorentzon ‘s setup in my apartment … and Spotify turns 20 next year, WILD.
The year is 722.
A small band of Christian warriors, outnumbered and cornered in the mountains of northern Spain, prepares for battle.
Their leader, Pelayo, has no empire, no great army—just faith and determination.
What happens next changes history forever:
A startling number of new archaeological finds support the Bible story.
Here's a thread of discoveries that rewrote history.
Starting with something astonishing found in this small cave... 🧵
Peter Thiel is a kingmaker in the shadows
He backed Trump in 2016 and now 7 of his ex-colleagues(JD Vance, David Sacks, Elon, Vivek) are running the US government
Once you understand how Thiel spots winners before anyone else, you'll build influential networks like no other🧵
The arrest of @Durov is an assault on the basic human rights of speech and association. I am surprised and deeply saddened that Macron has descended to the level of taking hostages as a means for gaining access to private communications. It lowers not only France, but the world.
@SoFloCREguy With downtown Miami saturated by big players and massive projects, do newcomers in real estate still have a chance to compete? Or will other parts of South Florida see more growth instead? If so, where?
I thought @elonmusk’s interview with @andrewrsorkin was one of the great interviews ever. Musk is a free speech absolutist which I respect. I think he is entirely correct that he and @X are treated unfairly and inconsistently by advertisers.
@tiktok_us@instagram@facebook and others have enormous amounts of problematic content, antisemitic and otherwise, but the advertisers don’t boycott those platforms.
Musk is targeted because the other media organizations view @X as a competitor and any time his name is in an article about controversies, it draws clicks. MSM is incentivized to attack him as it actually drives attention to their sites and therefore more revenues. It is these attack articles by other media organizations that put pressure on the @Disney’s of the world to stop advertising on X.
If Bob Iger would carefully examine the facts, he would likely continue to advertise on X, but Disney caves to public pressure rather than do the right thing. Meanwhile Disney invests heavily on TikTok, likely alongside videos of kids teaching other teenagers to be anorexic and worse. I am sure Nelson Peltz can fix this when he joins the Disney board.
X presents the opportunity for advertisers to access an incredible global audience that is not available elsewhere. And it is cheap compared to other alternatives because of current circumstances.
On Musk and antisemitism:
After examining the facts, it was clear to me that Musk did not have antisemitic intent when he responded with the ‘actual truth’ tweet, and further clarified thereafter.
I thought he made what he meant extremely clear in the @andrewrsorkin interview, namely, that Jews are drawn to support ‘oppressed’ groups and causes through various non-profits due to our history of being an oppressed minority.
Musk points out correctly that a number of these organizations and their members support Hamas. And he is correct in saying that Jews should rethink support for organizations that seek their elimination.
Many Jews are doing that right now.
To use a Muskism, Earth is fortunate that @X is owned by an individual that is largely insulated from financial and other influence. That said, perhaps some form of very carefully governed trust would be a better forever owner than any individual.
@PershingSqFdn invested in the Twitter privatization in support of free speech. Whether we make a profit on our investment is not important to us as we never intend to sell our interest.
I am more inclined to like and support companies that advertise on the platform because I appreciate their support for free speech. I have actually bought products I learned about from ads on @X. I can’t think of another example of my responding to direct advertising other than on X.
Unfortunately, recent (and society’s long-term experience) with non-profit governance, see @OpenAI, certain private universities etc. should not give anyone confidence that a traditional non-profit would be a better owner of X than Musk.
Perhaps some day the ownership of X should be distributed to each American, one share for each American during their lives and one for each person born, with a charter which permanently vests the free speech principles by which it operates.
Until then, we all should be grateful that X is owned by Musk.
I have learned from experience that the experts, the government, and conventional wisdom are often wrong. ‘Inflation is transitory.” “C19 did not escape from the Wuhan lab.” “@Ukraine will fall in less than a week.” “Its not possible because it hasn’t been done before or because it hasn’t happened before.”
It is often the outlier with no experience in a field that challenges the status quo, that makes the important discovery, that has the unique insight, or creates the transformational innovation.
@elonmusk was not an expert in payments, electric cars or rockets. The ‘experts’ were at Visa, GM and NASA.
When you are part of the establishment, it is hard to challenge the conventional wisdom. You are incentivized not to. And when your economic livelihood can be threatened by an alternative point of view or a new innovation, you are less likely to believe it or its viability.
The greatest opportunities for discovery, innovation, understanding, and profits often exist in the unexplored paths, the unasked and unanswered questions, and in the improbable possibilities.
Our best investments have been: (1) in the stock of a real estate company going bankrupt, (2) from betting that a triple-A rated company was insolvent, and (3) betting that a virus in China would cause a global economic shutdown.
Each of these investments were met with extreme skepticism at the time they were made. In each case, we were the naive ones when we made these investments. We were not bankruptcy investors, experts in bond insurers or credit default swaps, nor did we know anything about viruses or pandemics.
From my experience, knowledge is advanced and insights are gleaned by studying alternative points of view from conventional and unconventional sources of information, and by not discrediting a point of view simply because it comes from someone who is not an accredited member of the relevant establishment, who does not have an advanced degree in the subject at hand, and/or someone whom has been criticized in the media.
In an effort to get to the truth, I try to keep my mind open to alternative possibilities and weigh them against each other. I often find that truth can emerge when two or more articulate and intelligent individuals in an open forum discuss and debate a controversial subject and are required to address unscripted questions from a knowledgeable audience or moderator.
The above is why I added to the pot in attempting to convince @PeterHotez to discuss vaccines with @RobertKennedyJr on @joerogan. I think knowledge will emerge from the discussion that will catalyze further explorations or investigations that will bring us closer to the truth and help us answer questions about vaccine efficacy and safety that remain unsettled for many. And if @PeterHotez is not the best or most knowledgeable advocate for vaccines, then we should find another one.
In getting to the truth, I want to hear from the greatest skeptics and advocates. Both deserve a platform on the path to truth.
And no, I am not an anti-vaxxer.
Jamie Dimon is one of the world's most respected business leaders. Politically he is a centrist. He is pro-business and pro-free enterprise, but also supportive of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate. He is extremely smart, thoughtful, and pragmatic, and he knows how to bring opposing parties together. He is highly respected by the Right, the Left, and the Center.
Jamie is beloved by his 240,000+ employees, highly respected by our military as well as by the global political and business leaders that matter. He has superbly managed @jpmorgan through every crisis, and has built the world's best, large, global financial institution working for clients from startups and mom and pops, to global institutions and countries.
Our country is at risk with $32T of debt with no end to massive deficits in sight, heading into a recession at a time of great political uncertainty. We need an exemplary business, financial, and global leader to manage through what is likely to be a critically important decade for our country in determining our destiny.
Jamie Dimon is that leader.
Jamie is of exemplary and unimpeachable character. He is a no bullshit, straight-talking, charismatic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them. He is a great communicator that makes everyone who hears his words feel respected and inspired. He has enormous energy, vigor, and drive.
He is a wonderful father, friend, husband, and son. In sum, he is the kind of person our country deserves as our next leader. And clearly he is thinking about running:
https://t.co/ucE7a6T2D5
I can't imagine a better time for him to do so.
@POTUS is extremely weak and in cognitive decline. 70% of Democrats don't want him to run. Biden's weakness sets up a large opening for a qualified outsider to run as a Democrat.
Jamie can beat Biden in the primary and @realDonaldTrump in the general election, but he needs to start now and build name recognition among the broad electorate. He will easily raise billions of dollars from Democrats and Republicans to fund his campaign, and he knows how to build support.
Each year, Jamie gets on a bus and travels around the country meeting with tellers, branch managers, and other employees to spread the culture and inspire the JPM team; great preparation for a presidential run. He will also be incredible on the debate stage.
And there is nothing more for him to achieve at JPM. He has already been crowned the world's best banker. JPM stock will go up even more when he becomes POTUS as he can do more for the bank and our economy as President than he can as Chairman and CEO of JPM. The bank will be in great shape since he has built a deep succession bench that is more than ready to step up.
There is only one better job for Jamie than CEO of JPM and that's POTUS.
Jamie just needs a push from people he respects and from the broader electorate. If you agree that he should be our next POTUS, give him a call, send him an email or go see him, and like and retweet this tweet.
This will be one of the most important elections in our country's history. Jamie is more likely to run if we build a groundswell of support for him. Let's do our civic duty and make it happen.
Our challenges as a nation are largely due to failures of leadership. America needs and deserves great leadership and we need it now.