Jack Dutton

Chief Business Correspondent at @almonitor.
📩: [email protected], DM for Signal.
Ex-@newsweek, @thenationalnews and @airfinancenews.
@jackvdutton.bsky.soc

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🇶🇦 QatarEnergy has lined up 3 US deals in 2 days.

The world’s second-largest LNG exporter is now buying American LNG.

Cheniere Energy, Inc.: signed, 4m tonnes a year from 2031 to 2054

Venture Global LNG: in advanced talks for at least 3m tonnes a year

Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG: in talks for up to 3m tonnes a year over 15–20 years

If all 3 close, that’s about 10m tonnes a year.

Add Qatar’s 70% of the 18m-tonne Golden Pass plant in Texas ( ExxonMobil).

Why would Qatar buy gas from someone else?

Because this year a single strait cut off its exports.

When Hormuz shut, QatarEnergy declared force majeure and bought 33 spot cargoes of US LNG, mostly from Venture Global, to keep supplying Korea, Taiwan, India and Japan.

In LNG your reputation depends on delivering.

Qatar’s customers have 20-year contracts with it.

If it can’t ship from Ras Laffan, it ships from Louisiana.

Then there’s the price.

Many of Qatar’s long-term Asian contracts are linked to crude oil.

US LNG costs about 115% of Henry Hub plus a liquefaction fee of around $2.50.

With Henry Hub near $3, that’s about $6 at the plant before shipping.

So Qatar can buy at a Henry Hub price and sell at an oil-linked price.

Qatar doesn’t set the oil price, but every extra dollar on Brent lifts what its oil-linked buyers pay.

Every US cargo Qatar buys is a cargo Europe and Asia can’t.

The world’s biggest LNG seller is now bidding against its own customers for American supply.

That’s why JKM and TTF sit near $30.

Qatar is buying a second route out and Henry Hub is starting to shape prices in Doha.

[Nick Schifrin @nickschifrin]

.@StateDept updated 13 travel advisories throughout the Middle East to "reflect an increase in potential armed attacks by the Iranian-supported Houthis and Iranian efforts to target U.S. government officials in the region."

A State Department Official adds that "The possibility of regional effects [of Houthi attacks], including the potential for flight disruptions, makes a region-wide advisory update important and prudent."

The Official also notes ongoing warnings about Iranian drones and missiles, and says "We have consistently messaged to Americans on the threat from Iran and will continue to do so."
https://t.co/cUXsjdcq1s

[Homayoun Falakshahi @hfalakshahi]

That's it, Iran’s floating buffer is gone: oil (crude & condensate) on water outside the US blockade zone is at zero, down from ~89 mb in July.

Oil revenues are on track to hit zero by mid-December, and the pressure to escalate before the US midterms is rising.

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

What Iran’s threats to Hormuz internet cables mean for Gulf https://t.co/lZsFk6jYct

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

Gulf oil exports surpass prewar levels despite escalating tanker attacks. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was trading at $109.19 as of 10:48 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, nearing a five-month high. https://t.co/tyYsgdLkPc via @AlMonitor

[Noam Raydan @NoamRaydan]

The two ship attacks reported by UKMTO were against Liberia-flagged oil products tanker Soyia ( (IMO 9263916), around 30NM southeast of Al Faw, Iraq, and the Kuwait-flagged crude oil tanker Al Dasma (IMO 9653446), around 11NM west of Bukha, Oman. The ships have been identified by maritime security firms including Vanguard.

We will add these attacks soon to the @WashInstitute interactive map below, which tracks maritime attacks in the MENA region since 2017.

Link to the map to view previous attacks: https://t.co/NWbjIOUVE9

(Use the map on a computer monitor; it has not yet been adapted for phone screens.)

At least 28 reported and confirmed attacks so far in October in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways.

#OOTT #Shipping #IranWar‌

[Aya Iskandarani @Aya_Isk]

BREAKING: France's Macron lands in Riyadh on surprise visit: @AFP journalist

[Elke Götze @Pucemargine]

Macron secures Gulf diesel supplies as France grapples with fuel costs, unrest https://t.co/t3g4mgrQDW
by @jackvdutton via @AlMonitor

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

Macron secures Gulf diesel supplies as France grapples with cost of living unrest at home https://t.co/FhIUuxmD6F

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

Iran and Gaza: Why Trump's backing of Netanyahu may come with strings attached https://t.co/LltOjrrHjd via @AlMonitor @BenCaspit

[Financial Times @FT]

One flight last week leaving from al-Qassim airport north of Riyadh to Geneva on a Bombardier Global 6000 — a 14-seater long-range aircraft — sold for €94,000, compared with a price of about €60,000 before the closure of Riyadh’s main airport. https://t.co/yrCAY41UXp

[المتحدث الرسمي باسم قوات التحالف @CJFCSpox]

التحالف:

اعتراض وتدمير صاروخ باليستي أطلقته الميليشيا الحوثية الإرهابية باتجاه الرياض.

[Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران @ariel_oseran]

Saudi early warning alert issued for Riyadh amid an incoming attack.

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

NEW: Saudi Arabia postpones 'Davos in the Desert' until 2027 amid Houthi attacks https://t.co/nzNJO0O6E6 via @AlMonitor

[Anna Jacobs Khalaf @AnnaLeaJacobs]

“Saudi Arabia has decided not to hold its flagship investor conference in person next week and instead will hold it fully online or postpone the event entirely, people familiar with the matter said, highlighting how missile attacks on the kingdom’s airports and capital city by the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen are threatening its economic ambitions.” https://t.co/V2gsVn6Cix

[Elke Götze @Pucemargine]

From Six Kings Slam to FIFAe finals, Saudi Arabia's events derailed by war https://t.co/F3IimqyJPm
by @jackvdutton via @AlMonitor

[Jack Dutton @jackvdutton]

From Six Kings Slam to FIFAe finals, Saudi Arabia's events derailed by war https://t.co/IoEvbYBIgd via @AlMonitor

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

MAJOR BREAKING: All indications point to a MAJOR escalation about to take place in the Saudi/Yemen War.

Let’s get you up to speed on what has taken place this morning.

Just over an hour ago, the Saudi Coalition Spokesperson released a formal statement warning civilians in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a to prepare to evacuate undisclosed sites in anticipation of a major Saudi strike.

Immediately following this, the Ansar Allah (Houthi) Spokeperson, Yahya Saree, issued his own statement saying that Ansar Allah will respond to any targeting of Sana’a with “harsh and painful” strikes on the Saudi capital of Riyadh.

Just a few minutes later, it was announced by the Saudi Coalition that civilians must immediately evacuate the Yemeni OIL SITES in Sana’a in anticipation of Saudi strikes that would seek to destroy these facilities.

In return, the Ansar Allah Spokesperson stated that any strikes on Yemeni oil sites would be met with the targeting of Saudi ARAMCO facilities in Saudi Arabia.

This war is going completely off the rails at this point, and if Saudi Arabia proceeds with their strikes on Sana’a’s oil sites, one thing has been made abundantly clear in the last few days:

Saudi might be able to hit whatever they want in Yemen…

But Ansar Allah can also destroy anything they want in Saudi Arabia.

ARAMCO is in SERIOUS trouble.

[العميد/ يحيى سريع @Yah_Saree]

تهيب القوات المسلحة اليمنية بجميع المواطنين بالإخلاء الفوري والابتعاد عن الأهداف التى ستقوم قواتنا المسلحة باستهدافها في حال أقدم العدو السعودي على استهداف ما أعلن عنه في العاصمة صنعاء
مقر شركة أرامكو في الدمام
مطار خالد في الرياض
مصفاة الرياض التابعة لشركة أرامكو