My paper on 'Effective strategies against Covid-19 & the importance of infection sequelae' is out.๐
In this paper I:
a. Summarize the evidence on longer-term harms
b. Explain what is Strategy vs. operational plans
c. Propose a template for an Effective Strategy /1
Frankly, if there's one lesson to learn from the past (and from countries that have walked this path before), its that ๐Lebanon's best hope right now lies in aligning at the technical level. /4
https://t.co/LwK0pxTmzr
Lebanon's๐ฑ๐ง health system has been in survival mode for much too long, to the detriment of the people.
When we conducted this study, it was striking that expert informants saw both the need to weather the crisis, as well as a rare opportunity to transform our health system. /1
These include the highlights below.
If we delay the important choices we need to make, then we will actively harm our population.
I hope this can serve as a rallying point to re-ignite momentum, particularly among health professionals. /3
Between 2 March & 16 April 2026, there has been 139 attacks by Israel on health care in Lebanon, as verified by @WHOLebanon.
This has resulted in the closure of 6 hospitals in South Lebanon and Beirut, as well as the deaths of 91 health personnel.
@bassamturk I devevelop a report+proposal for tobacco taxation for Lebanon with WHO back in 2019. A few reasons prevented new taxes. Particularly that Regie local tobacco became dominant vs imported brands & have different interests. Nevertheless, it is necessary both for health & finances.
@RicardoRKaram He was a kind, gentle and considerate man. I recall over 20y ago at AUBMC, he was one of the best humans, who treated every one with equal respect, whether student, patient or physician.
Studies looking at diminished T-cell-repertoire and worsened immune defenses:
https://t.co/XDNMeYA1Gy
https://t.co/0re5eI86CP
https://t.co/WnYb7eiIOO
https://t.co/2QuF1jks5U
https://t.co/DyFGdnk6W7
https://t.co/whH4Y0X7mw
The AI responded with real papers๐
@JEK_Psych Partly/largely due to COVID-19 damaging the immune system.
Evidence keeps coming. Latest by Zeng et al. shows diminished T-cell repertoire.
But it will take a while for most people to learn of this & also connect the dots w. increased school/work absences.
https://t.co/gJqI252xXH
Damage to the immune system has been an ongoing debate throughout this pandemic.
Very few warned of this early on (& some abused!).
But it was logical to avoid finding out (preventing infection).
There was & is confusion, because nobody could predict the scale of impact. /1
Lebanon had no mortality data in 1990 and was emerging from war with all its assumptions! National mortality surveillance only began in 2017. While we acknowledge the magnitude of risk factors we are bathing in, figures derived from models should always be approached with caution
Lebanon also had the 2020 economic crisis cause a massive shortage in chemo medicines.
My neighbour died early likely due to this.
So it's not really a surprise that cancer is devastating Lebanon.
Ponzi schemes kill.
So does bad governance.
Lebanon cancer mortality has had the greatest % increase worldwide, from 1990-2023, per a new Lancet study.
Many people are rightly worried about air pollution from generators, tobacco smoking and water contamination.
But the elephant in the room is cancer treatment.../1
No doubt that incidence (new cases) of some cancers is increasing.
(National Cancer Registry is an imp. effort & needs support to get clarity)
But tracking % survival of cancer in ๐ฑ๐ง is a major problem.
Counterfeit chemo & delayed treatment are certainly having an impact. /2
Lebanon cancer mortality has had the greatest % increase worldwide, from 1990-2023, per a new Lancet study.
Many people are rightly worried about air pollution from generators, tobacco smoking and water contamination.
But the elephant in the room is cancer treatment.../1
If only 2 persons were Covid +ve among the Az dropouts, and none were among placebo, then Az wouldn't be considered effective.
Ofc we can vary the significance & assumptions, but its still **small numbers**.
This study calls for a larger investigation, rather than Az use. /2
There's been a lot of posts on the recent Azelastine study.
@michael_hoerger shared an important take on it below.
Its important to keep in mind that we are dealing with **small numbers**... /1
https://t.co/TBNo5v6cpd
I read this article with such excitement, especially being published in JAMA IM. Unfortunately, the devil is in the details.
When the analyses account for dropout (correctly), the findings largely fall away. This is buried in the Supplemental Materials.
See ALT text for more.
I read this article with such excitement, especially being published in JAMA IM. Unfortunately, the devil is in the details.
When the analyses account for dropout (correctly), the findings largely fall away. This is buried in the Supplemental Materials.
See ALT text for more.
@MarcDaoud3 Its a good question. The nearest stations we could rely on are in Kuwait and Libya. Perhaps some others. But probably the best is to keep an eye on the IAEA latest news https://t.co/YJ9Q73G4LK.
Also fyi: https://t.co/Dp5KRGhBQU
People in ๐ฑ๐ง may want to consider getting Potassium Iodide (KI) pills, to protect the thyroids of kids in particular, in case there are any nearby nuclear incidents.
You can get these from pharmacies.
Do not take unless a nuclear leak is confirmed. /1
I know Lebanon has many problems.
But this is a relatively low cost-highly effective measure.
Other cancers are less easy to prevent.
But staying indoors would also help, IF there is an nuclear incident that is confirmed by authorities. /2
People in ๐ฑ๐ง may want to consider getting Potassium Iodide (KI) pills, to protect the thyroids of kids in particular, in case there are any nearby nuclear incidents.
You can get these from pharmacies.
Do not take unless a nuclear leak is confirmed. /1