Jago

Informasi cryptocurrency paling menarik berdasarkan sumber terpercaya HBCYG5HW

[Jago @jago_crypto]

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]

@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

@btc @13yiyi4e @tetherwallet @tether so nice 💃

[email protected]

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

so nice 💃

[email protected]
@btc

[Jago @jago_crypto]

@bitcoinhodlco @freddienew [email protected]

[Jago @jago_crypto]

@MrGigaWhale Problem is key

[Whale @MrGigaWhale]

The crowded trade problem is one of the more counterintuitive risks in markets.

The common assumption is that if a lot of smart people are in the same position, that position is probably correct. The analysis is sound, the thesis is well-constructed, and broad agreement seems like validation. But what crowding actually does is change the exit dynamics entirely.

When everyone is on the same side, the position works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't, the exit is simultaneous. There's nobody to sell to except other holders who are trying to exit for the same reason. The fundamental thesis can be completely right and the position can still produce a painful drawdown purely because the unwind is simultaneous and there's no incremental buyer to absorb it.

The most dangerous trades in crypto are the ones that feel safe because everyone agrees with them. The consensus is often correct on direction and catastrophic on timing, because the consensus getting in is what makes the eventual unwind violent.

[Toby @jinyuanwang]

这两天和 @CCcylin @Piaoxue_eth 聊天，认为寻找和下注 Alpha（有价值、尚未被广泛认知的标的）对于普通人想要实现/维持富有，是一个核心能力。

Hyperliquid 是我最近找到的一个 Alpha：

一、市场情绪

几乎所有我接触到的人都相信 Hyperliquid 会成为 Perp DEX 的最终赢家。

二、$HYPE 有真实的回购/销毁机制 + USDC 生态收入

目前（2026.05.21）:
- 流通量 0.29B
- 价格 $61
- AF 年回购 $0.55B（月回购在 $45M 左右）
- 市值 = 流通量 x 价格 = $17.69B
- 回购收益率 = 年回购 / 市值 = 3.11%

目标价格 = 年化回购金额 / 目标回购收益率 / 流通量

1 年后流通量中性情景约 390M HYPE：
298.6M 当前流通 + 79M 团队 vesting + 约 23M 自由裁量项估算（Foundation/Emissions/Grants）- 9M AF 回购

对比 6 个月前 2025 Q3-Q4，HL 的年回购在 $1.02B 左右；如果回到 2025 Q4 的交易活跃度，年回购有机会回到 $1.1B-$1.2B。

假设一年后市场仍按当前约 3.11% 回购收益率定价：

- 保守（回购维持 $0.55B）: 价格 = 0.55/0.0311/0.39 = $45
- 中性（回购 $1.0B）: 价格 = 1.0/0.0311/0.39 = $83
- 乐观（回购 $1.5B）: 价格 = 1.5/0.0311/0.39 = $124
- 极乐观（回购 $2.0B）: 价格 = 2.0/0.0311/0.39 = $165

三、Hyperliquid 有潜力对市场进行重新的洗牌：能够挑战 Binance、纳斯达克、传统券商

目前 HYPE 在市场的份额大概在 3-6% 左右；Binance 在 18-32% 左右。Binance 目前是 HYPE 3-6 倍交易量以上。

传统在纳斯达克发行的股票，可以在 Hyperliquid 上进行，所有记录都公开透明，全世界的资金可以不通过美国资管直接涌入。

参考
https://t.co/Na8W44tESI
https://t.co/AZeCDMUpWD
https://t.co/0zcatKqFXW
https://t.co/NhkGqMvjma

#alphaFinding #HYPE #Hyperliquid