For all of you who do not want to go back and read all the tweets from $NVO press conference, here is a short summary.
I will also live update from the earnings call later at 1 PM CET.
Key takeaways from the press conference:
• Management repeatedly highlighted the record launch of oral Wegovy in the US. More than 1 million patients had started treatment within the first 16 weeks.
• Novo says it is seeing patients switch from competing products to oral Wegovy. Management also said anecdotally that they hear some switching from compounders.
• On Eli Lilly’s Foundayo, Mike Doustdar said patients are choosing the pill with the best efficacy and added: “So far, so good.”
• Novo sees no signs that patients are already stopping treatment with oral Wegovy.
• Management described oral Wegovy as the strongest pharma launch in the US excluding vaccines over the past decades.
• Novo believes it has found the right pricing “sweet spot” and says the strategy is not about taking market share, but expanding the obesity market.
• Cash pay and online channels are becoming increasingly important. One year ago they represented ~10% of Novo’s obesity business. Today it is ~50%.
• Management emphasized that lower prices are being offset by significantly higher volume growth. The global GLP-1 market is now growing ~30% by volume.
• Novo remains very confident in CagriSema and says there are no changes to launch plans for early next year.
🔴 İki pilot Red Bull sponsorluğunda havada uçak değiştirmeyi denedi.
Bu deneme karşılığında lisanslarını kaybetseler de tarihe damga vuran nefes kesen görüntüler ortaya çıktı.
La TV inglesa subió el video de los últimos 13 minutos del Rochdale-York por el ascenso a Cuarta División.
El Rochdale lo ganaba al '96, hubo invasión de cancha celebrando el ascenso y se lo empataron al '110 y ascendió el York.
Disfruten.
Mi amigo Germán @ingeododo me envía esta foto que ha hecho de la presa de Aldeadávila.
Voy a aprovecharla para contar algunas cositas de esta presa.
Comenzamos hilo 🧵 de #JuevesdePresas
Updated the investment thesis for Novo Nordisk $NVO and made it a bit easier to read. Much of what has happened lately in terms of the Wegovy pill & compounders is already mentioned. Very open to feedback about the format, length, and other comments.
https://t.co/wTds1O7ngN
The Week of $NVO : Oral Wegovy Takes Center Stage
Street view shifts
• BMO raised PT to $57 (Market Perform), citing prescription pressure
• Goldman sees far more upside in the Wegovy pill than consensus
• Goldman models peak oral Wegovy sales >DKK 40bn by 2031, ~25–35% above consensus
• Citi initiated with Neutral (DKK 400), calling 2026 challenging despite a strong start
• Nordea, Danske Bank, Jyske Bank reiterated Buy but cut PTs ahead of cautious guidance
Oral Wegovy: momentum builds
• U.S. scripts: 4,289 → 20,371 → 26,700+ in first three weeks
• Faster uptake than early Wegovy injection and Lilly’s Zepbound
• Goldman: fasting requirement unlikely to deter motivated patients
• Citi: launch “off-the-charts,” consensus sales likely too low
• Net pricing, persistence, and cannibalization still key unknowns
Competitive backdrop
• $REGN is betting cholesterol reduction can differentiate its obesity drug olatorepatide, which could deliver strong weight loss plus a 50–60% LDL reduction
• Roche moving CT-388 into Phase 3 after ~22.5% weight loss data
• AstraZeneca enters obesity race with $1.2bn CSPC deal
• Obesity market getting more crowded and more price-sensitive
Q4 earnings setup (Feb 4)
• Ozempic and Wegovy accounted for ~66% of Novo Nordisk’s total sales in the first 9 months of 2025
• Growth likely slowed after 2025 guidance cuts
• U.S. pressure from competition and compounded semaglutide
• Offsets: Rybelsus, insulin, Rare Disease, and oral Wegovy launch
• Street expects cautious 2026 guidance (–1% to –9% sales growth in LC)
Geography & strategy
• APAC seen as major long-term growth engine
• GLP-1 penetration still very low across obesity and diabetes
• Obesity sales in APAC +221% in first 9M 2025
• Patent expiries a headwind, innovation the counterweight
Legal & regulatory noise
• Novo cleared to proceed with U.S. lawsuit vs LifeRxMD
• Judge did not rule on merits, but said claims of consumer confusion are plausible
• The case can now continue, with both sides required to share documents and evidence
• MHRA flagged rare pancreatitis risk but reaffirmed GLP-1 safety
Marketing & demand
• Novo outspending $LLY on U.S. GLP-1 ads ($487m vs $214m)
• Super Bowl expected to spotlight Wegovy pill to >100m viewers
• Focus on middle-aged men new to GLP-1s
• Telehealth firm Ro says pill is attracting new users, especially men
#stocks #investing
Estamos a las puertas de una nueva escalada bélica en Oriente Medio con Irán 🇮🇷 y Estados Unidos 🇺🇸 como principales protagonistas.
A falta de saber el cómo y el cuándo, las distintas partes implicadas maquinan entre bastidores y calibran qué papel jugar en la función.
Guardiola hablando sobre cómo ser excelente en la vida. Un tweet que no solo tienes que ver, sino también guardar para ver de nuevo en el futuro.
Lecciones de cómo ser un genio en lo que haces.