bob.hl

Crypto Market Analysis | intern | BsC in CompSci and Econ. Currently doing a Msc in Econ |

[bob.hl @jalebob]

Best way to play new token launches and TGE's

In this post i want to talk about the use of a time based trade, why i think it makes sense when new token launches and how to utilize it

Why does most new drops follow the same price action?

My theory is that most of these tokens have multiple holders, people that believe in the product (believe price should be higher), those that can't sell yet (investors/team), and those that want to take the "free" money and get out.

Most of the tokens launches follow the same pattern, some more observable than others.
My theory for why it rises (even though it might be vapourware), is because it's simply oversold and some people see it as a good buying opportunity. People see it trend back and jump back in.

Why does it makes sense to use a time-variable stop loss/ take profit instead of a price target in certain situations?

It's easier to calculate when capitulation/euphoria happens time-wise instead of putting certain price targets, because it's all price discovery.

Adding volume to the strategy can help with finding the capitulation/peak euphoria stages, so when volume peaks, the price is at it's most extreme.

In my research i found that less than a week hold time is optimal, with buying in the first 48 hours.
Here's a couple of examples:
I tried to quantify my research by employing a simple strategy:

> 48 Hour TWAP long.
> After 5 days 48 Hour TWAP reduce position (close long)

You can improve the strategy by adding more criterias for when to deploy the strategy:
Looking at MC/ FDV and comparing with similar projects to gauge whether it's priced accurately.

An example is that it was easy to see that:
> W was overpriced at launch with a FDV of $15billion
> Drift was oversold at launch with only $40million MC at the bottom

Things to keep in mind:
> Number of data points in my research is relatively low
> This research hasn't taken general market into consideration ( i could consider adding this in a future report)
> TWAP data is taken from simulated TradingView, not from actual TWAP data.

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[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xaporia Have you done any research on F&G index moving average? Like for trend reversal

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@Evan_ss6 Reminds me of USDD on Tron

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xMerp @dcfgod @SalsaTekila @DeriveXYZ Thanks, on derive it looks like they price the probability at around 45% if im not mistaken (60 days not 45 days)

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xMerp @dcfgod @SalsaTekila @DeriveXYZ I'm curious why you think he couldn't then

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xMerp @dcfgod @SalsaTekila @DeriveXYZ ill take a stab, insane spread + no liquidity?

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@DefiIgnas Options pricing on-chain is terrible, you're paying way too much and almost no liquidity

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xMerp I really think OpenSea should've leaned more into doing physical collectors items like Pokemon etc while they had their lead.

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@0xMerp @fiege_max That's what i did, i just picked a random purr off Opensea lol

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@mattyklein_ @litocoen Not completely true, in off hours you can get liquidated without underlying market moving. People (NMTD) got liq'd above 1600 on SNDK

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@awawat Following the squiggle.

Quick revisit to 69.420 in late may and then continuation into july

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@awawat LMAO

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@PaperFlow8 youre my favorite account on ct

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@bigmagicdao Knew he was a retard, when he said that governments could just print more money to end poverty, if they wanted to.

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@thedefivillain @astekz What happens if MNAV goes under 1? Does he still sell MSTR? I can't see how this works out on a longer time horizon

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@stalequant 10M MC - Last 30D Rev annualized is 4.6M and last 7D is 2.8M.
Basically any growth or stagnation is good value.

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@stalequant

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@Nomaticcap @OAK_Res_EN @kinetiq_xyz @markets_xyz @pvp_dot_trade slashing risk

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@lBattleRhino gm, its going to be a long weekend

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@_Investinq It's going to resolve the same way as in august 2024

[bob.hl @jalebob]

@bigmagicdao Good point, common are basically going to lose their value over time, if Strategy keeps going like this (which they will). Nothing new