Statto

Prefer accuracy to popularity. Myth-mongers will be challenged. Happy to engage in polite, evidence-based debate. Will only block due to unacceptable rudeness.

[Statto @james_bowley]

Labour is promising the “most radical and ambitious plan to transform our country in decades.”

Does the public trust Jeremy Corbyn to be the man to deliver that transformation?

If not, could it be counterproductive to have such a complex, costly manifesto?

THREAD 1/16

[Statto @james_bowley]

@dave43law Across all pollsters, Labour has scored an average of 22.6% in the 414 national polls since the GE. More In Common has scored Labour, on average, 22.8%. The average score for Ref UK has been 27.0%. The average MIC score for Reform UK has been 27.0%.
Stop being silly.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@TheTVGrump @YouGov Has that ever happened before? The party of government polling in 4th place in a national poll from @YouGov ?

[Statto @james_bowley]

@GlenMitchell1 I imagine this will be an easy Labour win in the end, expecting tactical voting to come into play, Greens backing Labour to stop Reform, not enough potential votes on the right to stop it. But we'll see.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@GBNEWS Just 11% are satisfied with the way Rachel Reeves is doing her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer, with 71% dissatisfied, a net rating of -60.
Just 9% of working class voters (C2DE) & 9% of white voters, are satisfied with how Reeves is doing her job.
https://t.co/OTeAKLF74v

[Statto @james_bowley]

@GuidoFawkes

[Statto @james_bowley]

@narindertweets One would think that the Chancellor of the Exchequer would know.

[Statto @james_bowley]

Labour polling in FIFTH place with female voters, Westminster Voting Intention:

Labour: 15%
Conservative: 19%
Lib Dem: 17%
Reform UK: 23%
Green: 18%

@YouGov 26-27 Oct

https://t.co/tTb731wkuD

[Statto @james_bowley]

@YouGov Labour now in FIFTH place with female voters:

Labour: 15%
Conservative: 19%
Lib Dem: 17%
Reform UK: 23%
Green: 18%

[Statto @james_bowley]

@FindoutnowUK For historical perspective, this is a lower national polling percentage for Labour than at any time during Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, and lower than results ever achieved by the Conservatives during (and after) the Liz Truss premiership.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@FindoutnowUK '2024 GE non-voters' making up 11% of the vote intention sample now, with 47% of this group saying they'd 'definitely vote', and vote for Reform UK, while 1 in 5 2024 Conservative voters are also switching.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@LukeTryl The last time that the Labour party was at 25% in a national voting intention poll was more than five years ago, six weeks before the 2019 general election.

[Statto @james_bowley]

Should Labour MPs be aware of this chart, to remind themselves that their huge parliamentary majority does not reflect a deeply 'popular' national win?

On average, Labour governments 1945-2005 were formed after 30.9% of the electorate voted Labour, compared to 20.2% in July.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@MattChorley For A Few Dollars Morecambe

Blackburn After Reading

The Stevenage of Innocence

Pontypriddy Woman

A Bridgend Too Far

The Dogs of Warrington

Black Swansea

To Have and Have Nottingham

The Margates of Wrath

Bedfordknobs and Broomsticks

The Milton Keynes Mutiny

[Statto @james_bowley]

@78SoylentGreen Happy birthday!

[Statto @james_bowley]

Seven day rolling average for new positive COVID-19 test results in UK falls for the first time since mid-May, to 46,460, with 39,906 newly-reported cases today.

https://t.co/wycpmdBpGr

[Statto @james_bowley]

@BritainElects @YouGov Today's YouGov poll marks 2 full years (99 polls) since Labour led the Conservatives with C2DE social grades on Westminster VI.

CON: 48%
LAB: 25%
LDEM: 5%
GRN: 7%
REFUK: 3%

via @YouGov / The Times, 07/19 - 07/21

[Statto @james_bowley]

@amphitryoniades It was Ipsos MORI recording the leadership satisfaction levels - not YouGov - as it's done monthly since the 1970s. The charts show what ratings LOTOs who unseat PMs had vs the PMs. It's a tough task, and LOTOs need, historically, to have much better ratings than the PM, to win.

[Statto @james_bowley]

@amphitryoniades @GregClinker Here's the full chart

[Statto @james_bowley]

@keiranpedley @IpsosMORI @standardnews Hague vs. Blair
Blair vs. Major
Kinnock vs. Thatcher
Foot vs. Thatcher

[Statto @james_bowley]

@keiranpedley @IpsosMORI @standardnews What some of those leadership satisfaction LOTO vs. PM head-to-heads looked like over the longer term.

Corbyn vs. Cameron, May & Johnson
Miliband vs. Cameron
Cameron vs. Brown
Howard vs. Blair