james barty

All views personal. Investment strategist at CC/Baml/DB/Arrowgrass, ex Policy Exchange and BBA

[james barty @jamesbarty]

History will regard this moment as one where the UK made a major mistake, opting to make itself less relevant and less well off.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@ZhyrZhyrZhyr How?!

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@ZhyrZhyrZhyr How did you do that? Or shouldn’t I ask 😂

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Rich coming from you!

[Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick]

He’ll stand anywhere.

He’ll say anything.

Andy’s in it for himself, not Makerfield.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Yep that’s why a comfortable majority would not support it today

[David Frost @DavidGHFrost]

As usual the public has a good sense for the truth on Brexit.

They can see most of the political class didn't want to leave the EU, tried to stop it, successfully prevented us leaving fully (Northern Ireland), and then abandoned efforts to finish the job.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Fortunately there are fewer Leave voters now than in 2016 and yes the Leave campaign did suggest it would sort out all of the UK’s ills.

[Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1]

No, Dan, you're wrong on this. No one promised Brexit voters that leaving the EU would solve all their problems. They promised to Take Back Control. We did that and then our political class betrayed that promise. Leave voters aren't angry that Brexit didn't deliver, they're even MORE angry than they were in 2016 that politicians STILL aren't listening to them.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

👇👇👇

[Bella Wallersteiner 🇺🇦 @BellaWallerstei]

I’ve been politically homeless - changing my vote in each election. But I’d support a party that combined competence & patriotism with a plan to reverse Brexit, rebuild social contract, fix planning, restore investment attractiveness & harness AI. Debates we may finally have

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@NeilDotObrien They wouldn’t have a different policy for the U.K. from the rest of the EU members. Doesn’t work like that. While the presumption is that you join the euro no one is forced to, hence all the countries that still have their own currencies. So the assertion you made is incorrect.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

And you should be honest too Neil. No current EU member has been obliged to join the euro. Hence Swedish Krona, Polish Zloty etc

[Neil O'Brien @NeilDotObrien]

People who want to rejoin EU should be honest about what the terms would be:
- Join Schengen borderless zone
- Join euro
- No budget rebate, so even bigger payments

[james barty @jamesbarty]

An unbiased view of course….

[Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott]

Based on the mood in Makerfield today, I think @AndyBurnhamGM has made a massive miscalculation. Just got a feeling that @reformparty_uk is going to win, by a significant margin

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Must be able to agree to fantastical economic ideas that come out of the leadership with zero grounding in reality

[Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick]

I am looking to hire a chief economic advisor.

As Reform prepare for government we are looking to expand our growing team of policy advisors.

I’m after an exceptionally talented individual with a strong grounding in macro economics.

If you’re passionate about getting growth again in the economy, and have ideas to shake up our stale economic debate, this role is for you.

We have a once in a generation opportunity to build a new economic model that transforms this country for the better. If you have the energy and determination to do that with us, this role is for you.

The job will involve:

-policy development
-modelling
-in-depth research

No experience in Westminster is required. Business experience is preferable.

The pay is highly competitive, but variable depending on the candidate.

Please email your CV and a cover letter to [email protected]

Applications close on the 29th May but will be reviewed on a rolling basis.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@angelshalagina Stay safe

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Steve - Brexit advocates are to blame. You told everyone what they wanted to hear and they could have it all without being honest about the costs. So surprise surprise they think they can have their cake and eat it without any tradeoffs.

[Rt Hon Steve Baker FRSA 🗽 @SteveBakerFRSA]

⁉️As Sir Keir Starmer's premiership is on the brink of collapse and the UK potentially looks at its sixth Prime Minister in ten years, we must now ask ourselves, has the UK become ungovernable⁉️

Not just the usual Corbynite suspects, but a growing list of MPs and council leaders are saying, with varying degrees of ill temper, that Keir Starmer has fought his last election as leader and should now set out a timetable for his departure. Downing Street is scrambling to rally the Cabinet; senior figures offer performative support or studied silence.

This is not year nine of a clapped‑out government, limping to an overdue defeat. It is the aftermath of a local test of a young administration. If this is what government with a big majority looks like in 2026, it is worth asking whether something much deeper has gone wrong with the way Britain is governed.

Is the UK becoming ungovernable?

Since Brexit, our centre of government, politicians and journalists seem to have had an addiction to chaos with six Prime Ministers since the referendum. Candidates to be the seventh are now limbering up for the job. It took over forty years to run through that many leaders before 2016. What is happening?

We are not suffering simply from bad luck with leaders, or only lingering division over the decision to leave the EU, or the peculiar viciousness of modern social media. Those things matter, but they are symptoms. The deeper causes are structural, and they were set in train long before the referendum. Until we confront them honestly, the chaos will continue – whoever is in Downing Street.

🧵My full article for Voices for a Free Future in the thread🧵

[james barty @jamesbarty]

I think people have worked out Brexit was a disaster hence why the polls have shifted. Fool me once, fool me twice would be the obvious slogan for rejoin. Farage and Boris took people for fools they won’t be fooled again.

[Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound]

A reminder that the Leave campaign has had a slogan ready to go since the last referendum. 'Tell them again' looks like the easiest win in political history to me. The Rejoin terms would be so abject that, whatever the polls say now, many 2016 Remainers would vote to stay out

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@ZhyrZhyrZhyr Big hug, hope you can recharge

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@BellaWallerstei Congrats!

[james barty @jamesbarty]

Lies lies and statistics. Anyone who has watched Utd under Carrick vs Amorim can see the difference. Bruno is so much better at 10 than as one of a midfield two. Mainoo is much better in central midfield. Utd are better defensively and more clinical going forward as a result. QED

[Spencer Mossman @fc_mossman]

Some observations about Manchester United's underlying data this season under Ruben Amorim and under Michael Carrick:

- Amorim's United were better by almost every measure except results
- its known Amorim had a better xG differential, but there's a response I'm seeing that his xG is inflated by trailing game states, which is incorrect; in neutral scorelines (the match is tied), Amorim and Carrick have nearly the same xG differential per match... Carrick's Utd are producing more xG, while Amorim's were conceding less
- even non-xG or xT events like high turnovers forced/conceded and deep entries forced/conceded all favor Amorim's Utd

If through the traditional data analysis lens Amorim's Utd looks better, the question flow becomes:

Do I care about the underlying data?
- If no, thanks for reading this far, my account and this post probably aren't for you, feel free to quote this calling me a nerd or leave a reply like "I ain't reading all that"... it helps with the algorithm :)

Are there other data angles where Carrick's United does look better than Amorim's, and if so, are they also reasons why other successful teams are successful?
- Still here? Awesome. If there are alternative angles I'm not considering, I'd love to think through them. That said, if they need to be scalable to other situations, otherwise it doesn't really matter if they're driving United's current results, because like the goals to xG differential, its not sustainable.

Are there non-data reasons for the results disparity?
- Absolutely, and it would be stupid to not consider these. Carrick clearly has a management style that better suits the club and the squad mentality, among other things. The confidence of the players/general vibe of the club could very well be the difference between the quality of result. I don't believe this to be true, but I would not rule it out, or at least it being one of several contributing factors. But if you believe this to be the case, you need to then think through:

Will the good vibes last forever?
- Eventually something has to give - either the underlying data catches up to the on-pitch results, or the on-pitch results drop to meet the data. Feel free to think through which is more likely, and how that will impact the vibes.

Perhaps this is as simple as Amorim was the manager United needed to right the ship, and now Carrick is the manager United needs to maximize results.

There are arguments for and against United sacking Amorim, as well as making Carrick's appointment permanent - I'm not here to persuade you one way or the other, what you choose to do with the facts I've presented and the other facts you've digested + your relationship with your emotions is your business.

Thanks for reading!

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@KatrinaSheikh Huuuge congrats!!!!

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@ZhyrZhyrZhyr Still following and always super happy to hear you are ok. Keep posting and take care.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@KatrinaSheikh @SOS_Initiatives @LondonMarathon Very best of luck, go at your own pace and you’ll be fine.

[james barty @jamesbarty]

@afneil Now do the analysis again