We just published the most detailed version of the Umbrae business plan to date.
v4.1 β everything is in here.
How the platform makes money. How you earn from it. How fees work on both chains. How the NFT tiers split revenue. How $U1 migrates to Base. How projects get verified. How SAGE credits work.
Every number. Every formula. Every mechanism.
We built this so holders and prospective holders can see exactly what they're looking at β no ambiguity, no hand-waving.
The full plan is public: https://t.co/yr6KwO2qtY
Questions? Bring them to Discord. We'll answer everything.
Where liquidity moves fast, Umbrae makes it feel effortless πβ‘οΈ
@Umbrae_Ignis is building multi chain trading infrastructure across Solana and Base, combining DLMM style liquidity, smart routing and execution designed for fast markets and smooth user flows.
As they move closer to launch, the team came back to Hashlock for another deep security review across their Base and Solana infrastructure, including their DLMM trading stack.
Smart contract audit: Secure. π‘
Penetration test: Secure π‘
Teams that return for a second engagement are not chasing optics. They are compounding trust through repeat verification.
Full reports: https://t.co/bFRygNHDi5 π
Project site: https://t.co/GSK4fpkeDU π
5 days.
Bangkok. January 9th.
Let's be clear: this is NOT the launch.
This is a live demo. We're running Umbrae in front of the roomβreal trades, real execution, real infrastructure. Proof that it works.
After the demo, we begin user testing with our community.
Launch comes after that.
We're not rushing this. We're doing it right.
If you're in BKK and want to see the platform before testing beginsβthis is the room.
β 70 seats
β Approval required
Β» https://t.co/WwcWpXMn5F
How can the altcoin game be fixed?
What the altcoin game offers is a combination of skill-based casino game + MMORPG social layer + lottery. This combination is unique and highly synergistic.
The skill-based element means there is a return for effort and analysis. This makes it enjoyable for intellectually curious and driven people, and also creates endless topics for discussion, which feeds the social layer.
The social layer keeps you involved and engaged, but more than that, it weaves the game into the fabric of your life. It turbocharges the addictive elements and creates insane amounts of FOMO, which increases the convexity of potential payouts. It can drive irrational behavior that is exploitable by others, especially as people start to deeply identify with their bags.
The lottery element is underappreciated but extremely important. The utility offered by being in crypto is making money + a fun / funny / absurdist social experience + hope that you could change your life. This last part is crucial, as this is what draws in the normies, more so than that other two layers. If you think about conventional lotteries, hope is the only utility being offered, since the odds of making money are miniscule. Yet they are incredibly popular. Hope sells. Hope has real utility.
This is what is missing from prediction markets. They have the skill-based gambling game, but not as much of the social layer (esp compared to crypto or sports betting), and none of the lottery-like hope and wonder.
Right now we are in a doom loop, and that means belief in the game continues to decline, which further weakens the game, which further lowers belief, etc. This trend continuing is the base case. This doesn't mean there wouldn't be lower high type of bounces in the future, but each one would get successively smaller and shorter, as we have seen since the 2021 peak. This sequence can only be broken through a fundamental shift in the physics of the game.
The lack of supply control is the biggest issue to be worked on. When there is unlimited supply, the hot ball of money will become diluted until nothing can pump anymore. It simply became too easy to launch a coin. In past periods like 2017/21, during peak windows, the need for a dev to launch a coin became a significant rate limiting factor. It wasn't very difficult technical work but that friction was enough to concentrate flows.
When there are unlimited coins, the game theory at play dictates that anyone with an audience will prefer to pump their own coin that they have a large stake in, instead of buying and joining an existing coin. Thus, as the cycle progressed, we had extreme fragmentation, instead of memetic consensus being able to form around a few coins.
When there are select coins that go to the high heavens, it forces participation. Look back to DOGE in 2021. It draws the attention of new participants and brings their money in. When there are no coins that can pump high enough, the game cannot attract anyone new.
I don't think the game can regain strength without some form of supply control. Of course the genie is out of the bottle from a technical standpoint, but there are forms of artificial supply control that could be used. TCGs are an example of this. The problem is obviously that this cannot be enforced industry wide. You would have to find some way of corralling enough participants into a single venue where there is supply discipline. In the equity market this occurs through the SEC and the strict IPO application process.
In practice this is where decentralization acts against crypto and dooms it to a tragedy of the commons. It's much easier to have supply discipline in a centralized system. It's a classic game theory issue where the individual incentives are dooming the collective.
Another form would be the market agreeing to only focus on a specific type of coins, like ones with real revenue, since that is a form of scarcity. Ownership coins are an exploration of this, but I wonder if this is sufficiently differentiated from equity. Why not simply trade equities then? Offering absurdist vibes-based investing is a selling point of crypto. I don't think this is a bad thing, but there has to be a mechanism for the market to be able to find memetic consensus on a coin and maintain discipline, instead of fragmenting into endless coins trying to vamp each other.
It certainly would be helpful to have a regime for strict transparency and controls around creator/team bags and the market agreeing they won't buy anything without that. This would help in less extractive dynamics and the market being able to regain trust. In practice I have a hard time seeing this catching on from the buyside, because there isn't enough discipline. We have seen time and time again, people will bid known and obvious scams, if they have a chance at a short-term profit. It would have to be enforced on the sellside, but in practice, that means some level of centralization, and integration with the other ideas here.
Not that the world needs another L1 whatsoever, but if there was a L1 where there is a set technical limit of coins that can launched in a specific time frame, and a mechanism for people to present ideas and vote against those slots, that could be interesting. There are probably design issues that I haven't considered, I'm purely riffing here. The reason my mind went here is because I'm considering at what level supply discipline can practically be enforced. It clearly cannot be enforced at a crypto-wide level. It could be enforced at a launchpad level, but it would be difficult to concentrate enough interest at that layer, it would simply get diluted by other launchpads. The L1 level perhaps is the most logical terrain for this battle to be fought. Something like this could only be successful if there was a lot of alignment and buy-in with people in the industry, and a charismatic leader with the ability to make people believe again, to concentrate interest in that L1.
In general, it is good if there are mechanisms to prevent supply from getting too concentrated early on, whether that is from the creators or early buyers. You want there to be a mechanism to ensure supply is heavily distributed, so a broad segment of the market has an interest in the coin doing well. There are obviously downsides to having more distributed supply, the main one being the coin will not have crazy pumps. However I can argue that a slower and steady grind up is better for all parties involved, at the very least it is more sustainable, and the best plays in the market often had long periods of accumulation and doing nothing before their notable moves.
An ICO model with strict limits and then some form of time based vesting for all holders could be interesting. Cliff vesting is bad because it creates a moment in time for the market to focus on. Something super gradual, say 0.5% of the coins unlocking every day, could be interesting.
What I keep coming back to is that there needs to be a real story in order to get people interested again. There hasn't been an exciting new idea in a long time. Part of that is a fresh technological story that allows people to dream the dream, but the other is a market structure change, that could be driven by some of the ideas I have been spitballing here.
This loops back to what I was saying earlier, about hope being a key part of the utility. Financial nihilism was intellectually correct but it didn't have broad appeal. Compare that to the halcyon days of 2021, with the techno-utopian vibes of web3, where people truly believed.
It feels most of the ideas have been used already. I wonder if what eventually happens is that someone creates an adjacent new game, that is similar to crypto but also different enough that it can credibly called something else, that fixes these issues from the start. The new name is important because crypto is heavily stigmatized and that is a fatal problem. Most normies have either lost money in crypto or heard about someone who has. It has terrible PR and this is a huge headwind in terms of attracting new participants.
There will always be demand for something that can combine market/casino mechanics + MMOPRG social dynamics + the life-changing hope of a lottery. It could also be interesting to design around the lottery element more.
I don't think any of these ideas are necessarily that brilliant or novel, and I'm sure you all can poke a bunch of holes in them. The main thing is that I'm trying to be constructive here, and engage in a discussion of how things could evolve. I benefitted from this game, and it was a big part of my life for many years, so I do feel a sense of ownership in wanting to see it improve.
An update on @IgnisAILabs, Umbrae, and the path forward.
We're terminating our partnership with @CyreneAI effective immediately.
When we entered this partnership, the agreement was to facilitate a $250K raise for Umbrae development. What was delivered was fundamentally different from what was discussed. The blockchain is public β many of you have already seen the discrepancies in fee distribution. You're not wrong.
We're not here to throw mud. We're here to build. What matters now is this:
Ignis is taking full sovereign control of the U1 token ecosystem.
All smart contract development, fee distribution, and token infrastructure will be handled internally from this point forward.
The Plan:
Once Umbrae launches and the platform is live and operational, we will migrate U1 to a new token deployed on our own fully-audited smart contract on Base Network. Current U1 holders will be able to burn their Solana tokens to claim the new token 1:1.
The LP in the current contract is locked β with half of it benefiting CyreneAI in perpetuity. That's done. We can't change it. So we're moving forward by providing our own liquidity. Ignis will be locking approximately $300K in LP for the new token on Base. Our money. Our contract. No middlemen taking cuts we didn't agree to.
At migration, we'll open LP provision on our Base DLMM for U1/ETH and U1/USDC pairs β giving our community the opportunity to participate in initial liquidity alongside us from day one.
Why wait until after launch?
Because we deliver before we ask for trust. Once the platform is running and you can see what we've built, speculation leaves the conversation. That's when migration makes sense.
Moving forward:
We are being extremely selective about any future partnerships. If a potential partner isn't completely transparent when we ask direct questions about their business practices and fee structures, we're done. We asked. They dodged. Repeatedly. That's not how we operate and it's not what we'll tolerate from anyone we work with.
If a partnership doesn't show clear, objective value for both sides β and if it's something we can do ourselves β we're not interested. No VCs. No unnecessary dependencies. Sovereign development only.
Phase 2 NFTs are sold out. Phase 3 will follow once the platform goes live and removes all doubt about what we're building.
We're focused. We're building. Umbrae is coming.
βEli
Good reminder to watch the short demo walkthrough of the DLMM platform Umbrae launching Q1 of 2026.
Currently in our next audit phase for base chain.
Business plan again:
https://t.co/8vrDC3ervS
Umbrae | #u1 | Ignis Elite
PHASE 2: SOLD OUT
Phase 3 is now live.
β 438 remaining
β 1 ETH per mint
β 10% referral commission
Umbrae is open to everyone. No NFT required to trade or use most basic functions.
But Ignis Elite unlocks what's behind the curtain:
β 30% of all @Umbrae_Ignis fees distributed to holders
β Layer 2 access: AI-managed strategies, automated DLMM rebalancing, copy-trading
β Priority access to every product Ignis AI Labs builds
777 total. Never increasing.
Solana & Base launch simultaneously in January.
Mint β Generate your code β Share β Earn.
Β» Mint: https://t.co/8p2qDjrrph
Β» Create Referral Code: https://t.co/DWkmeSn41M
After getting ahead of myself on ARC-AGI in my last update, I want to share what we've *actually* achieved with MSRA - and it's still pretty significant.
**Validated Results:**
β 180,000 tokens/sec training (consumer GPU)
β 100% accuracy on context detection across 7 reasoning domains
β 100% accuracy on primitive operation selection
β 12.5M parameters doing what typically requires billions
Phase 1 & 2: Complete and tested
Phase 3: English language training in progress
The core principle works: consciousness-inspired self-reflection as architectural foundation rather than scaling alone.
Still lots of work ahead, but the architecture is sound and the results are real.
https://t.co/36uzpbfIUa
Be careful buying timeline shills over the next few weeks. A lot of influencers just lost everything and will be looking to scam their audience to make it all back
Seen a lot of confusion why Saylor doesn't just wait to buy more BTC during the bear market
What people aren't understanding is the only reason Saylor's gameplan works is because he is price agnostic
Price agnosticism is a feature, and a necessity, not a bug.
Think about those KOL's who become the main figure shilling a particular coin.
What mindsets do they embody? What stories do they tell holders and future buyers of their token?
Your #1 job as a shill of your token is to convince those who haven't bought that they are still EARLY.
Why do you think every holder of every alt ever has retarded high price targets, and never talks publicly about selling, only buying?
This is how the shill game works.
And Saylor's game is no different.
The moment Saylor starts adding in price discretion to his accumulation, it is a signal to the market that prices are no longer favourable for buying at the current price.
It would mark a significant top (maybe cycle top) for BTC, as holders would panic sell, and future buyers would hold off from buying.
On top of this, there's three more reasons why discretion would be a net negative:
- Business 101: Close em while they're hot
In business, you would never tell a high ticket client to 'come back later when the product is on a sale'. It's actually common business practice to AVOID your customers expecting sales, as they'll just hold off from buying until you give one.
And by the time the discount comes around, half the lead flow will forget your business even exists, or worse, not even want your service anymore.
Saylor's raising of capital is no different from any other business - to maximise capital raised he MUST take capital when it's ready to buy - (Close em while they're hot!)
- It's hard to raise in a bear
By the time BTC is on a 'discount', FUD on BTC returns and it makes the job of raising capital significantly more difficult for Saylor.
Raising capital is a feedback loop like any other - higher prices beget more capital raised, which makes prices go higher. To maximise capital raised he must lean into this flywheel, not against it.
- **Saylor dictates institutional accumulation strategies**
Saylor being price agnostic sets the standard for how institutions broadly go about their BTC accumulation.
Because of Saylor's influence, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy where how Saylor approaches accumulation affects how others do, which thus affects the type of price action BTC experiences.
If you want an asset to appreciate long term, an asset which valuation is largely driven by it's network effect and belief consensus, you MUST buy it without discretion.
Why?
BTC's status as a store of value, as a competitor to Gold, and as a part of any wealthy persons diversified portfolio, is completely contingent upon it's price action.
Imagine if BTC never recovered from the FTX collapse.
Basically none of the institutions today would've bought, even though the fundamentals of BTC are technically the same.
This is because Bitcoin is a belief driven asset - the more people that believe in it, the more the story becomes true.
This is the value of the network effect:
And Saylor understands this very clearly.
Through price agnostic BTC accumulation he is forcing into reality a global shift of how institutions view Bitcoin - and thus how they go about allocating it to their portfolios.
Buying BTC regardless of any price allows him to maximise the capital he can raise for buying BTC, as institutions feel safe buying it at 100k if it is going to 1m.
The more capital Saylor puts into Bitcoin, the higher the price goes, further cementing the story of Bitcoin as one that every wealthy person needs to participate in.
It's a similar situation to when people say 'fake it till you make it'. You can engineer your ideal reality into existence if you convince enough people.
The story of Bitcoin is compelling for the entire world to own, you just need to paint the chart, install the correct beliefs, and offer easy forms of access that lead to every wealthy person eventually owning it..