JOK, MSW, MUP

lover of all things Detroit, U of M, and Michigan (opinions are my own)

[Jane Coaston 🏔️ @janecoaston]

oh my god I am so old

[Matthew Cappucci @MatthewCappucci]

Have weather forecasts seemed less accurate lately? There's a major contributing factor: nearly half the morning weather balloons in the Lower 48 are "missing."

This is an ongoing crisis that is degrading critical severe weather forecasts that we all rely on. It's having real, tangible impacts on degrading forecast quality.

If you work in transportation, agriculture or commerce, this should matter to you.

Regardless of the causes, this negatively affects people of ALL political backgrounds. Weather affects everyone. And it's impacting ALL of us negatively.

We can't look at weather balloon data that doesn't exist. We can't pump nonexistent data into models. We can't rely as heavily on models that don't "know" what's happening above our heads.

This is especially concerning for severe weather forecasts. We can't go 18 hours without ascertaining how the atmosphere is layered, how much storm fuel has built up and if severe thunderstorms are going to erupt. The Storm Prediction Center has even acknowledged forecasting frustrations in at least one public bulletin.

As an atmospheric scientist myself, I can say firsthand – the forecasts I'm able to offer you are less accurate than they would otherwise be. I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning.

The United States is "supposed" to launch balloons at 0Z and 12Z ideally – a.k.a. around 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern time. That's not happening. Many sites, due to staffing issues stemming from broader political and organizational issues, have pushed to 18Z, or early afternoon. That's not helpful for morning severe weather forecasts. In other words, you get less lead time. Less advanced notice. Quicker ramp-ups and ramp-downs to the forecast.

We're not able to get jet stream, temperature, moisture or wind profiles of the atmosphere each morning like we otherwise would.

Moreover, the World Meteorological Organization encourages 12Z soundings; that data is shared via the Global Observing System (GOS) under the World Weather Watch (WWW). That's not happening.

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

@GrossWeather @tigers Thanks! Hadn't made it in yet, waiting it out down the street

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

@Misopogon Thanks for the reminder! Over 100% funded now!

[Detroit Free Press @freep]

12.1M bird to fly over Michigan tonight. When to turn 'lights out' https://t.co/kg3XHIk4sD

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

@NWSDetroit Hail at 11 & Jefferson around 8PM

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

@LilyCGuiney @Johnubacon any chance you could make a connection here?

[Lily Catherine Guiney @LilyCGuiney]

Appreciate people blowing this up. Wish my inbox would do the same so we could learn more about the closures. If you’re staff at USFS Houghton or L’Anse/Michigan Tech U/MI DNR/USDA & want to chat about the agency’s plans, my email is [email protected]. Shoot me a DM for Signal.

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

When will we exercise this demon?! This damn tournament.

[Scott Bell @sbell021]

I hope Michigan wins tonight’s hockey game

[Alumni Association of the University of Michigan @michiganalumni]

How father and son Wolverines helped recreate @umichbball history in Indianapolis » https://t.co/ymDh7vyewH

[CJ Moore @CJMooreHoops]

Dusty May walks back to the team hotel every time he leaves an arena or stadium instead of taking the bus. I made those walks with May this week. Come along for a walk to understand the man behind the national champs (free for all to read): https://t.co/2hi4tYJgx1

[Nicole Auerbach @NicoleAuerbach]

Michigan a uniquely modern national champion. Most of its players had chosen to come to Ann Arbor, and the others had chosen to stay.

And they *all* became champions. https://t.co/7xbsoOXxHq

[Nicole Auerbach @NicoleAuerbach]

Great publicity for The Michigan Daily

[Yost Built @YostBuilt]

Two more wins for the double natty. 🙏

[Scott Bell @sbell021]

Give John Beilein a ring for this, too. He’s the one that got this program out of the desert. He got this program to the doorstep of a national title twice and this program wouldn’t be close to where it is now with the resurgence he led.

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

They did the damn thing. And 3-0 in national championship games for me.

[ESPN @espn]

The last team standing 🏆

[bank of ann arbor @bankofannarbor]

Let’s GO BLUE!!! 💙💛
Good Luck Tonight!!

[JOK, MSW, MUP @janellokeefe]

Let's goooooo