Jared Wold

3rd Year Policy PhD student at GMU. Labor econ. Reserving this space for a link for when I succumb to the substack virus.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

Denver International Airport has been in my feed a lot recently for some reason, but a lot of people who just have layovers there don't understand what a weird and wonderful place it is. Here's a thread about how wild DIA is. To start, it looks like something out of Star Wars.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@impossible_eng @asymmetricinfo The only thing you know about me is my beliefs about the correct way to infer cause and effect. It could make me unself aware, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to double down on my belief that of the list of reasons hate academia, that might be at the very bottom.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@asymmetricinfo Sure, the academy ended up on one side of the culture war (as most institutions did) this pattern was inevitable. Left wing academic contempt and discrimination did happen, as did conservative media hatchet jobs, but that's more identifying flagging a mechanism than the cause.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@impossible_eng @asymmetricinfo Well that's good to know! We can stop the discourse everybody. It's not polarization, or discrimination against conservatives or a media hatchet job. It was me. Hopefully you have an equally easy to implement solution to the problem.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@asymmetricinfo Yeah, I think the timing makes some sense, but also causality is hard here, because 1) imagining a counterfactual is hard given broader secular declines instituional trust, and 2)media serves as a mediator. Any effect is going to enter as an interaction with some other thing

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@DaphneRHansell I think part of the problem is half of that block is a weird no man's land of autobody shops and empty dance studios that don't feel like either Clarendon or VA Square. Agree about whole foods

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@DaphneRHansell It's interesting, in my head I've always thought of Washington as the border of Clarendon, but I think you are right that Northside social, and Boardroom and that commercial strip anlong 10th are all clearly Clarendon.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@SarahTheHaider @jimmygandhi I think this paper is doing some intellectual slight of hand. The reason to prefer NB over poisson is when poisson is out of distribution you get too generous of CIs. But that isn't an argument that the point estimate is biased. Meanwhile NB can be biased when there are many FEs.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@tracewoodgrains Sure, but the main way markets serve man is to raise standards of living. We've gotten accustomed to responding to degrowth people in other areas like climate change "how much is it going to cost me to accomplish your other priorities", but rarely for the immigration degrowthers

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@xwanyex Surely this cuts in the opposite direction of your argument about immmigration? Prior immigration waves also caused friction and modest culture change, but fears ended up being overblown and with the benefit of hindsight, the consensus is now that they were very net positive?

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@kitten_beloved C'mon, you are making what could be a reasonable argument, but shooting yourself in the foot with the Null Hypothesis Claim. You cannot just set H0 to be whatever prior claim you believe is stronger, especially if Ha then requires evidence of a negative.

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@BirdieLamark @kitten_beloved I'm from CO, which is VBM, but really competently run (counting ballots usually takes about 3 hours). Still saw plenty of people saying it was rigged.
I live in VA which is mostly in person/w ID. Still saw plenty of people saying we couldn't trust the election

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@goblinodds Interesting, that is a good point I hadn't considered

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@goblinodds be offended or surprised. That was also a very likely outcome back then, hardly a sign of a failed civilization. (The bigger difference is that in all of these stories, the culprit was hanged, although I am not sure I am taking a position there)

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@goblinodds Oh for sure! But I also don't think the guy is responding to incentives (I think hes still likely to try to murder someone if he lived back then). My point is if you told someone from back the story "Man pushed innocent in front of train, arrested, awaiting trial", they wouldn't

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@goblinodds Here is Claude's final summary when asked about bystander intervention (I think it cuts somewhat in favor of my argument, but more of it than I am comfortable with seems to based on VIOLENCE IN AMERICA, Volume 1: The History of Crime, Robert Gurr, and ethnographies worry me):

[Jared Wold @jared_wold]

@goblinodds I think this is less of a case of trusting law enforcement to handle it than having no other option than to wait for the strength in numbers of a posse. We have a few cases of legal records of people being exonerated/pardoned for killings, but mostly those are other criminals