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boils down to: (P)robability of a binary market
If P < 1: buy all outcomes, resulting in guaranteed profit of 1 − P per share.
For a normal efficient market:
Up = 0.815
Down = 0.185
Sum = 1.000 — no simple arbitrage here.
But in practice you will often see sums like 0.97
Polymarket trading bots -
Made a quick "how to" build a polymarket trading bot to arbitrage market inefficiencies.
Wrote up my research here: https://t.co/QsBI4NkKLp
Open sourced the project if you want to use it to build your own: https://t.co/zWqg8N7Sse
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