Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee)

Always considering the government policy for industrial innovation, both personally and occupationally. Indeed, will the policy stimulate it or regulate it?

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

Thank you for referencing my opinion. I did research for understanding fundamental reasons why #KRBN fell dramatically yesterday. Finally, I found some materials. Please check my feeds. Based on my research, the price will somewhat decrease until tomorrow at least. #euets

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

Perhaps, EU ETS will still have a hard rock bottom of 60 euros. High liquidity injection so-called frontloading is a double-edged blade. Of course, a slump situation also may occur, but, EU will not want to put their all efforts so far back to 10 yrs ago or more.

#octt #euets

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

@PatAlan14 Informative attachment including "price range", thanks.

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

What might drive the prices for EU ETS allowances in phase 4 up to 2030? (cited: Köppl, A. et al., 2021)

1. The Fit for 55 & stringency for the EU ETS: (a) A more ambitious emissions target, (b) A more responsive MSR, and (c) A gradual phaseout of free allowances.

1 of 3
#euets

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

This line of arguments could explain the most recent price hikes and the subsequent
price drops in the EU ETS market.

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

3. Changing market behavior of actors

A stronger short-term and speculative trading behaviour could shape the market for carbon allowances in the future.

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

Innovation funds: The dedicated volume of allowances for these funds is part of the overall number of allowances and will thus lower the auctioning volume. This then would add stringencies to the market for allowances.

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

2. A focus on innovation

A stronger focus on innovation, which was not incentivized so far due to the too low prices and the continued free allocation, could impact the stringencies in the EU ETS in opposite directions.

[Carbon Pulse @CarbonPulse]

Major Chinese investment bank launches ETF to track #EUETS futures, adding to the number heavily focused on the world's most liquid carbon market

https://t.co/TyPdLYDRTq $ #OCTT

[Nikos Tsafos @ntsafos]

Another wave has passed—European gas prices are now below €100/MWh.

Is this decline durable? Can it be sustained?

I doubt it.

[Carbon Risk 🏭 @CarbonRisk_]

Europe's hydrogen economy and what it means for carbon prices #euets https://t.co/7dDz5FT4ND

[Mike Szabo / @szabotage.bsky.social @MikeSzaboCP]

EU lawmakers on a key parliamentary committee on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to support a European Commission proposal to strengthen the carbon market's supply-curbing MSR, teeing up a final plenary vote next month.

https://t.co/MhyDrHutMW

#EUETS #OCTT

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

This is the global primary energy demand and its forecasting. Highly level possibility of scenario is the first figure, that named as "Stated Policies".

However, this scenario has still somewhat optimistic expectations.

source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2019

#euets #octt

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

UK Climate and Energy Minister Greg Hands recently told The Times that "North Sea oil and gas drilling should continue for energy security." The Telegraph said senior British ministers are also insisting on reconsidering the decarbonization goal by 2050.

#EUETS #OCTT

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

EU Commission said that the EU will be declared independent of Russian gas and fossil fuels up to 2030. [...] To meet the energy demand, we have to delay decarbonization and go back to using coals.

#EUETS #OCTT

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

And he said, "The current situation of the climate crisis is too urgent to do greenwashing by saying it is 'carbon neutral' while leaving carbon emissions as it is."

#EUETS #OCTT #KRBN

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

Carbon Market Watch Policy Officer Jonathan Crook emphasized in an e-mail interview with Hankookilbo (Korean media), "Buying carbon credits does not magically eliminate greenhouse gases from fossil fuels".

#EUETS #OCTT #KRBN

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

“The carbon credits are designed with the purpose of offsetting the areas that are difficult to reduce even after companies have made sufficient efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Crook, policy officer.

#EUETS #OCTT #KRBN

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

Lawson found an interesting pattern. Whenever RSI touched 21.69, a huge rally followed. This is amazing. This pattern has been confirmed three times. #euets #octt #krbn

[Lawson Steele @LawsonSteele3]

Interesting chart showing #euets carbon is oversold - if history is anything to go on, suggests a strong rally is forthcoming (green)

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

@US_Dhuga @LawsonSteele3 I'm in the same bull case as you. Feel happy to join your bullish case. Let's wait for re-joining retail.

[Jae-Seong Lee (Jason Lee) @jasonvictorlee]

EU ETS Historical comparison:

2020 Feb 17 - 2020 Mar 16
25.61 euro -> 16.11 euro (↓37%)

2020 Mar 16 - 2020 Apr 14
16.11 euro -> 21.70 euro (↑34.7%)

2022 Jan 31 - present
96.45 euro -> 58.30 euro (↓39.6%)

#euets #octt #krbn