𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️

I keep it light here and delete my tweets frequently.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@CoffeehouseT I agree.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

The fact that so many self-proclaimed experts who make a living on polling and elections accepted fake results is really striking.

[Noam Blum @neontaster]

[extremely fake voice:] hello, New York Times? My name is Steve Pollingfirm. My wife and I run the Pollingfirm & Pollingfirm Polling Firm and we would like you to publish our new poll that shows Abdul El-Sayed up 75 points. Wait, you will? Seriously??

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@AviWoolf The irony abounds in the Monroe Admin.

-Monroe one of the most vicious partisans in the 170s.
-Monroe looking beyond party in his presidency.
-Monroe the last president before the recurrence of permanent party conflict.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

it's a book on Jeffersonian Republican ideology in government. The argument is basically that the party's ideological unity broke between 1807-1815 when the conflict with Great Britain created a crisis, and there were two "Republican" responses that disagreed with one another.

So the election of 1824 is not just a breakdown of party unity in controlling the nomination. It's a legit schism that led to the Whigs/Democrats.

It hooks this back into the disagreements in philosophy between Madison (the father of the Whigs, kind of) and Jefferson (the father of the Democrats, kind of). Those disagreements were latent through their public careers, but become major points of friction in the Republican party under Monroe.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@AviWoolf Haven't read it. :-( Alas, I haven't had much time to read anything outside sci fi (as a mental break) as I'm working on the book.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@AviWoolf My view after 2012 was a combination of my own personal bias plus the unreliability of the polls led me astray, and I felt I had made a fool of myself. So I quit the biz and went back to history/political theory, my true loves.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

I'm inclined toward ... yes ... ? The national polls were really favorable to Romney in 2012. Gallup had him up a point in its final poll. I trusted the national polls over the state polls that year because I thought outfits like PPP were unreliable (still do!), but the national polls were wrong.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@AviWoolf The great, cardinal, unforgivable error is to overestimate the Republican share of the vote. The game is played by Price Is Right rules.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

Agreed, and it feeds the maw of the aggregation models. They need to be fed new data daily, so the numbers move, so the race always appears in motion, so there is always new updates and analysis.

Even at their best these models apply a level of precision that simply doesn't exist. At their worst, they launder deeply problematic data into a "precise" result.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@RWDUSA The Wedgewood poll turned out to be fake. Lots of professionals had been using it in their models and/or citing it.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@KeystoneObsrvr The only cardinal error, so far as I can tell, is overestimating Republican chances.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@jtLOL @wesyang legit lol

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

The question per the cross tabs:

Final ballot: with other candidates eliminated, between Peltola (D) and Dan Sullivan (R), who do you prefer? (Second-choice tabulation among voters who first chose Heikes or Sullivan Jr.; Peltola and Sullivan voters stay with first choice.)

So Sullivan has a lead here in the RCV system.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@chriswithans Wait ... is the result of the second round Sullivan 48 Peltola 46? Or is it that among the third-party supporters, they break 48-46 to Sullivan? The article is terribly worded.

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

@varadmehta TIPP gonna TIPP

[𝐉𝐚𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 ⚓️ @jaycost]

Polybius smiles wanly and whispers, "Told you so."

[Vash 🌪️ @Vashkirit]

Je veux un dictateur, j’en ai marre de la démocratie. Je veux un type qui aura les burnes d’enfin faire régner l’ordre et qui traitera enfin les traîtres à la nation comme ils le méritent.