Remember team.
We need to clear the noise.
We are day traders.
Could I be wrong and the war is actually coming to an end with a resolution that leads to Irans victory aka markets front running and pricing in Hormuz opening and energy crisis averted? Yes.
Even if I am wrong and we are a bit late to the party remember the macro landscape.
Scenario if wrong:
War is truly complete with signed deal, dual blockade removed and Israel leaving Lebanon... all other negotiations become noise and hold minimal impact.
Market focus on USD and Gold goes back to expectations of inflation dropping, rate cut bets greed picking up again and dropping yields.
We begin a Gold HTF rally back to 5k and even new ATHs slowly but surely.
USD reverses HTF gains and turns bearish with a large range.
After taking some short term losses to the chest we would still have fantastic trade ideas as day traders of jumping back into HTF Gold trend and USD bears for rally on GU and EU snd continued melt up on equities until something breaks or the green train details.
This is perfectly fine in my books.
BUT I am extremely hesitant about a few key challenges:
- Israel not leaving Lebanon and even escalating attacks for their own agenda and crippling US and Iran diplomacy
- Hormuz authority post war whether Iran dominates and maintains leverage or goes back to free trade
- Diplomacy falls apart and goes back to stalemate in Hormuz with potential for more escalations passing a critical point of 100+ days of water way closure
Because of this on Gold and USD specifically I still see elevated yields and delayed rate cut bets on energy impacted inflation the driver to bring Gold down to 4k or 3500 before HTF rally and continue to be a catalyst to respect DXY 15 year bullish weekly structure.
Also even a rebound on Oil from 70 or 75 back into elevated prices of 80s.
We still have 2 different perspectives on Hormuz control, uranium challenge and Israel problem.
We still have no removal of US blockade or change in hormuz flows just more insane damage control as SPR drains to 1983 lows and draws continue at large rates.
We still have elevated inflation which can remain sticky in terms of global supply chain impact.
With how many times we have been told the war is over or hormuz open with lack of credibility I still remain skeptical.
This coupled with Oil retesting lower discount demand zone 73-75, Gold still in bearish structure and DXY still in bullish intraday structure.
Warsh may even have a cont. of Powells last dance and remain cautious with a non event and not nearly as one sided dovish as most expect.
Critical dates to watch will be end of week potential signing and removal of blockades as well as an eye on Israel which has been creepily quiet.
Lets stay sharp as day traders and avoid personal emotions and bias while remaining objective.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT ?
IS TRUMP BLUFFING ?
WILL WE SEE THE USE OF SOMETHING OTHER THAN CONVENTIONAL BOMBS ?
MAKE SURE YOUโRE LOGGED ON AND LOCKED IN AT 8pm on THE MRKT TERMINAL to get the quickest and most up to date information
TRUMP ON IRAN: A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT, NEVER TO BE BROUGHT BACK AGAIN. I DON'T WANT THAT TO HAPPEN, BUT IT PROBABLY WILL.
The sooner you wrap yo head around the reality of you are solely responsible for where you want to be in life and nobody is coming to save you the stronger your grind will be
๐ WHAT'S GOING ON WITH YOUNG THUG? ๐ท๏ธ
Young Thug gets accused of being a snitch, and all hell breaks loose.
Take a look at a thread of the timeline of events.ย ๐งต